By a good margin the coldest overall run for the US. Warning: the next run will likely not be as cold of course. But this is saying the EPS is on crack.
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
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By a good margin the coldest overall run for the US. Warning: the next run will likely not be as cold of course. But this is saying the EPS is on crack.
Wondering if the GEFS progressive bias is playing into a faster/cleaner trough vs the EPS dirty look
NoSnowATL
Member
Idk, I see 3 cold shots per TT. That’s 3 more then we’ve had all winter. I approve.
Ron Burgundy
Member
FFC dropped my low Sunday night from 33 to 26 in the past 24 hours. #winning
Nah I think the model suites as a whole handle how the pattern in the north pac particularly around AK evolves. The euros seem to want to keep that ridge cut off and slightly retrograde while the gefs actually sort of roll it forward and merge it into a massive ridge. I didn't expect the gefs to actually increase heights over AK on the 18z run after the 12z euro. One suite is going to be very wrong here and that's going to have a big impact on where we are around 1/10ish
Meh!
Yeah it's not ideal I'd rather bring leaning on the eps but we will see. I'm not sure a eps like progression would be terrible
Avalanche
Member
Oh goodness man. 5 inches for you amd driving distance to 15. Have coffee ready when I come over!! Whamby if needed.
This is probably why the gefs looks better 
olhausen
Member
Middle Tennessee looking much better this run. Was looking at flurries the last few runs and now possibly a little accumulation. I’ll be more excited if the trends continue tonight into tomorrow. Overall though it looks like multiple shots of cold air which is more important in the big picture.
GEFS gets rid of the MC convection/forcing around day 5-6, and puts sinking air over it by day 7+ 
Philstorm91
Member
I have faith in the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) to stand us in good stead for January. If I'm right, the front on 1/3/22 should be the first of a few waves of cold in the first half of January.
weatherfide
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That looks like they removed the "climo" weighted forecast and actually incorporated the model guidance. I've been seeing upper 20's for days now, for Sunday night/Monday am.
Flotown
Member
I know I ask this a lot but can someone post latest individuals on weekend possiblity...thanks
StormWatch
Member
Yes, that is a very good look, considering the flow/temps. at 850mb. You can even see a mesoscale PV lobe over the Ohio River. I wouldn't take this at face value though because it's at 234 hrs.
StormWatch
Member
Well, the long range NAM shows the trough in good shape. It becomes tightly consolidated as it tracks east. Exciting to see! I'm still thinking it could have the chance of becoming slightly negatively tilted as it begins interacting with the eastern ridge that gets pushed off to the western Atlantic just off the coast and the western ridge that builds as the trough tracks east. 