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Pattern Januworry

ill take this look at 144 on the canadian, plenty of time
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Snowfan said:
I wonder if the cold bias got fixed in the new update.
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Well, I know from the all knowing (lol) Maxar that the Canadian ensemble has retained its strong cold bias. So, based on that, I doubt it. But if the ensemble output is still based on the older version of the operational, it is possible the operational cold bias was fixed or reduced while the ensemble remains strongly cold biased.
 
It may only be the cold Canadian but hey it’s not nothing. Hoping the Euro can throw us a bone. I’d just like to see a high pressure dominated NA with some squiggly isobars in the gulf. I don’t even care if it shows a fantasy storm at this juncture. It can squish it into oblivion idc.
 
Like I said a couple of days ago and what others have said. Those long range storms are always fun to look at but really don't expect any legit winter storm to show up until we get in the day 5-7 range before the short term models take over. Long range and extended medium range is good to see where the pattern is and if the players are all on the field to get a storm. Right now there is several waves coming both from Canada and an active southern jet. Couple that with a +PNA and an MJO in phase 8 and COD and potential of a -AO and -NAO at the same time for probably about 2-3 weeks means we have all the players together. I think Jan 20th - Feb 7 is likely the best shot but even next week is starting to get very interesting with us finally getting into the medium range and storm signals honking left and right.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Sheesh even though I think much of the Gfs is milarky without seeing that 144 system it has effects on downstream stuff but check out that block over Greenland View attachment 102481
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Yeah. I just saw a post saying this was the worst run in a while, literally every tele looks great H5 looks great
 
metwannabe said:
Did the Jan 2-4 winter storm show up 7-10 days out? Seems to me it did not and the pattern wasn't as conducive then. If the pattern is better, which it is, and that pattern holds, which it appears it will, then give it time, something will show up. It's not like it's common to track 10 day winter storms, there not like TCs. Lol
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Nope. They showed up within 5 days and became reality for a lot of places. I can probably count on one hand how many storms have showed up 10 days out and actually materialized. Also this mega storm was only forecasted to be 1-2 inches 2 days beforehand. It then went 2-3 and 3-4 and so on until 5-6 inches was finally put out yesterday morning. My point being that people should not be frustrated by not seeing a snow storm on the models in a 10 day period. A storm for the southeast could easily show up on the models this Monday for a snow that could pop next Thursday or Friday. I barely had time to be bummed I missed the big totals from last Sunday’s storm. By Monday a snow was showing up on the models and by Thursday night I was buried in 8 inches of pure powder!
 
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