How is long range (>300 days) EPS looking? GEFS looks decent through end of run.Pretty strong agreement in a legit cold shot View attachment 101752View attachment 101753View attachment 101754View attachment 101755View attachment 101756View attachment 101757
Starts to retrograde stuff to the western US by the end of the run, imo we’re gonna have a shot with that look in the first panel I sent, I also see some hints of wavebreaking on the EPS gonna have to watch for another - NAO from wavebreaking, what’s discouraging is the -SCAND which isn’t great for a -NAO to formHow is long range (>300 days) EPS looking? GEFS looks decent through end of run.
Could be wrong and I do believe @SD stated a week or so ago that we might be able to sneak a -NAO in around the 20th. It fits well at the moment. SD and @Rain Cold have been on top of their game over the last couple of weeks.The GEFS has a -NAO back again in mid jan View attachment 101762
Don’t forget my pattern change call for January 3rd ??Could be wrong and I do believe @SD stated a week or so ago that we might be able to sneak a -NAO in around the 20th. It fits well at the moment. SD and @Rain Cold have been on top of their game over the last couple of weeks.
You get this look and the percentages go through the roof to get a board wide event and yes that includes the I20 crowd. This is the type of pattern that can deliver some type of wintry weather all the way down the I10 corridor. IF we can keep this look through the month I would bet the house we see at least 1 major winter storm across a large portion of the southeast.The GEFS has a -NAO back again in mid jan View attachment 101762
I like the fact that the ridge out west extends up north of AK and that it's not too far east so that it would virtually guarantee a cold but dry pattern. North Atlantic ridge isn't ideal, but nonetheless, we can work with this pattern. The right timing could actually yield a bona-fide widespread snowstorm, and not some slushy mixy winter storm wannabe, given the cold air potential.As folks pointed out above, the modeled pattern looks solid for chances mid January. ?
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FiedThe good thing we got going for us now is the Cold. I believe within the next two Weeks most of this board will see cold rain especially if we can build a Taller WR to push these Storms further South. I think it could be setting up now For a big cold rain across the SE.
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I like the fact that the ridge out west extends up north of AK and that it's not too far east so that it would virtually guarantee a cold but dry pattern. North Atlantic ridge isn't ideal, but nonetheless, we can work with this pattern. The right timing could actually yield a bona-fide widespread snowstorm, and not some slushy mixy winter storm wannabe, given the cold air potential.
Was 26 at my house at 430..drove up to above Charlotte and saw 22 on hwy26 at one pointMega frost View attachment 101766