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Pattern Januworry

KSAV up to 82 as of 2/3 PM vs the daily record of 79! The very end of the warmth still fighting!
 
superjames1992 said:
50” for CLT. What’s that, about 15 years’ worth of snowfall in two weeks? Seems legit. Most insane model output I’ve ever seen for our region!
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Agreed. I think I've only seen that once or twice for the mtns, and maybe once for a coastal bomb offshore? Honestly I'm not sure.

NEVER seen it anywhere near the piedmont though.
 
RAH long range discussion:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Cold high pressure over the area Tuesday morning will retreat to the
northeast on Tuesday, but shallow mixing and the deposited cold
airmass will result in highs in the 40s. Southerly flow and
moderating temps will continue on Wednesday, with periods of cirrus
likely in fest cyclonic flow aloft as shortwaves move through a broad
upper trough encompassing the eastern 2/3 of the country. A more
amplified shortwave is forecast to reach the southern and central
Appalachians by Thursday, bringing the next chance of precip to the
region. The ECMWF and GFS are remarkably different in the amount of
moisture the system brings with it, with the ECWMF being much
wetter. The gFS provides a more atypical solution with precip
breaking out well into the cold air. These models also suggest some
changeover from rain to snow is possible, though uncertainty is high
given no cold air support preceding the system. For now will just
maintain a small area of rain/snow or snow across the climatological
favored northwest/northern Piedmont for Thursday night/Friday
morning.
 
BIG FROSTY said:


BAM- not buying the cold model runs. Cold had no staying power…,


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Good we don’t want BAM on our side! Remember? They said we were going to warm up and then we got this winter system we are dealing with right now … perfect
 
BIG FROSTY said:


BAM- not buying the cold model runs. Cold had no staying power…,


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Is it just me or do they seem to flip around with what they’re saying day to day. Anyway, if you look at the teleconnections today, looks to be some good things happening. NOAA still shows the MJO progressing slowly into phase 8 and ending close to phase 1… the big change today is that all the plots are squarely on the left side and some are want to give a high amp phase 8. The AO, while still going on a quick positive spike looks to then head back to neutral and then possibly slightly negative. The NAO looks to be positive early this week, but the head close to neutral after.
 
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