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Pattern Januworry


We’ll see.
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This forum has been quiet. Is it because the pattern for January sucks now or because everyone is tracking tonight’s storm?
both! lol
Not gonna lie. I put a lot of time in watching this one. A lot of people had doubts. But it actually did ok for our area considering the temp from the day before. I might take a break for a day or 2. ?
Wait a min! Next!!!
 
On Sunday 1/2, KSAV had a record high of 83 that was 4 warmer than the old record of 79 and only one less than the high for all of January. That was the highest temperature since way back on 10/22/21. They also had a record high minimum of 68, which broke the old record of 66 and was the highest low since way back on 10/25/21.

The mean on Sunday of 75.5 was 24.5 warmer than normal and was the warmest mean since the 75.5 way back on 10/15/21! There last time there was a warmer mean than 75.5 was way back on 10/7/21!

A mean of 75.5 is normal for September 26th and May 22nd!
 
The cold front finally came through here! It had already been windy all day and even windier this evening with strong southerly winds along with some thunderstorms making it quite the noisy night. But the highest winds yet occurred with the front, itself, with highest gusts 45-50 mph! Power outages are still not widespread but they have doubled in my county within the last 45 minutes.

The best news is the very sharp drop at KSAV from an almost summerlike 70/66 at 4 AM to 60/50 at 4:30 AM with gusts to 45 continuing.
Finally, the cold is arriving! Hoping I don't lose power.

To put it in perspective though, even the 60 at 4:30 AM is still near the average HIGH for the date!

Congrats to those who got wintry precip 250+ miles NW of here!
 
Outages in this county accelerating with now over 7K. Was only ~1K an hour ago. That's what 45-50 mph gusts will do.

GA by far has the most ongoing outages in the US:

Top Areas by Outages
Georgia 183,056
California 36,684
South Carolina 35,857
Tennessee 23,416
North Carolina 22,859
Last Updated
1/3/2022, 04:39:15 AM

 
Holy sheet, this just happened here at my house! The branch isn’t even large but it unluckily hit at just the wrong angle at a high enough speed! ? I’ve never experienced a broken window in my house from a branch. I had a tree come down in 2019 but it damaged mainly the roof and eaves without hitting any window. Fortunately the rain is over, but now I get to experience the cold front inside the house. ?‍?

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well, this one is trending in the right direction - and only 3 days out

View attachment 101464
Yep let's see where the 12z runs go. Might have to fire up a thread today there were a decent amount of eps members with snow for TN and Northern parts of ms/al/nc. I'm worried we miss out as a region and the gfs is too far south
 
Yep let's see where the 12z runs go. Might have to fire up a thread today there were a decent amount of eps members with snow for TN and Northern parts of ms/al/nc. I'm worried we miss out as a region and the gfs is too far south
Icon and other models other than the Gfs have been further north and with the classic amplification trends towards verification time makes me think we would miss out too but hey you never know
 
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