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Pattern Januworry

rduwx said:
I don’t post much here or the other board anymore but I can say I don’t remember seeing anything like this. And I’ve been on these boards a long time. Lol!
Hope you’re doing well!
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Hey bud! Congrats on your dawgs. Let’s reel in these two events. Good luck tomorrow.
 
GaWx said:
Epic cold SE HH GFS means tossing not an option! Maybe 1984-5 not so crazy an analog from the chilly Nov to mild Dec to frigid Jan along with similar ENSO. Also, the similar ENSO 1933-4 and 1971-2 both had a frigid shot mid to late month with single digits ATL and RDU. Both of those had a cold Feb with a near boardwide type of winter storm in Feb of 1934 and Feb of 1972 was very icy, esp in main CAD region:

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This is a wow map for me. I've seen a few of these maps over the years, and I'm sure it's happened, but I am not sure I have ever seen that white color modeled before! Bring it!
 
We finally got the GEFS MJO forecast to update after a 10 day wait. I couldn’t have drawn a more favorable MJO projection in January for SE cold and wintry threats: inside circle circling around a lot of the time in and near phase 8…holy cow!

DECFCFB5-0F85-4559-8AEA-04DE3D54A73C.gif

We also got a CFS update, which is similarly great:

ECBD3BA2-1628-4638-BD97-EAF4F4651608.gif

Finally, here’s the JMA, which also looks pretty dang good:

ECBD3BA2-1628-4638-BD97-EAF4F4651608.gif

Here’s a diagram I made for KATL based on 40 years of January temperature anomalies: note that inside the circle was on average colder than outside for each respective phase and that inside 8 was THE coldest on average (that very cold 8 was also the case just outside the circle up to about a 1.5 amplitude):

33D4924C-3896-4EA5-9477-F53D7C782FBF.png
 
I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.
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Why do you believe that?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.
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And as a reminder, you also said no appreciable accumulating snow outside of the mountains with this storm.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.
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I would love to hear the explanation behind this post. I have lived in GA for 30 years and can think of only a couple times throughout that span that you could see a winter pattern loaded for a few weeks with the potential for winter weather for so much of the SE as we are looking at right now.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.
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I’ve noticed a trend over the years and that’s whatever you say about the weather, it does the exact opposite. Please keep saying this so I know we score again in January ??
 
This is precisely why you want a low tracking I-4 and then up ... from that folks from Valdosta to southern VA can get in on it; whereas with a low tracking mid-GA and up, some of y'all get some nice weather but a good bit of it is spent on folks that get it from other sources anyway ... and folks south are ...

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I-4 Low ... Tony gets his sleet, Larry gets his frozen hanging from the eaves, and I get to a nice feeling ...
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.
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Are you going to explain your reasoning and what exactly your seeing that the WPC isn’t? They have put most of the Carolinas in a 30-50% probability of significant snow or sleet later this with a portion of NC at 50-70%. Keep in mind that 3 weeks ago you said there would be no wintry weather outside the mountains until 1/25 at the earliest… that was ended on 1/3, then earlier this week you said there would be no appreciable snow outside the mountains with today’s storm.
 
Chazwin said:
Are you going to explain your reasoning and what exactly your seeing that the WPC isn’t? They have put most of the Carolinas in a 30-50% probability of significant snow or sleet later this with a portion of NC at 50-70%. Keep in mind that 3 weeks ago you said there would be no wintry weather outside the mountains until 1/25 at the earliest… that was ended on 1/3, then earlier this week you said there would be no appreciable snow outside the mountains with today’s storm.
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No, he won't.
 
With the way things are looking the next week to 10 days… could CLT actually have a below average January??
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Just counted 4 potential pieces of energy that could bring a SE winter storm if either one was tweaked just a bit … the potential pattern still looks ripe for us to be involved through he beginning of February at this point
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Could be a historically epic 2 week period folks


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Perhaps someone with a little more knowledge than me can help. I’m going over some data to help answer a few questions. How and why did the snow over-perform in the upstate S.C. area.

I’m unsure what this method is called but one culprit of over-performance was the wet-bulb. There are other mechanisms involved and will go over that later. I’m not sure if this is a phenomenon where a city (Atlanta) caused the atmosphere to do this, or is it a coincidence?


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wxdaniel said:
Perhaps someone with a little more knowledge than me can help. I’m going over some data to help answer a few questions. How and why did the snow over-perform in the upstate S.C. area.

I’m unsure what this method is called but one culprit of over-performance was the wet-bulb. There are other mechanisms involved and will go over that later. I’m not sure if this is a phenomenon where a city (Atlanta) caused the atmosphere to do this, or is it a coincidence?


d883058827de6704c26053d56f27d238.jpg

8fda429cb73aa65d54660e89b729de8b.jpg

b492f1783de6daddef1fa8b8ba724a49.jpg

4e43aa488e3147efdd926dd1a83cb507.jpg



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Two things come to mind:

1) the damming wedge was strong and cold air was sent SW down into the upstate....not just at the surface, but just above the surface as well. 1st image is from a NAM 3km run, but you can see here at 9AM Sun at 850mb how the near 0 deg C cold is trying to hang on in the upstate while +2 C is running up into central NC.

2) the warm advection shown in 2nd image at 850mb was intense and banking up into the mtns to the NW. The warm advection is drawing in warm moist air from the SE, creating rising motion for precip generation....and while it does cause warming at 850mb, that process also creates strong lifting which is a cooling mechanism in the air column.

So, I suspect it was just a unique combination of strong cold air damming and low level lift that created just enough cooling to get the job done for snow

0WYY6A6.png


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