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Pattern Januworry

Lickwx said:
However, since you do specific predictions are you suggesting you predict the pattern of storm chance after chance and cold wave after wave to continue into mid feb ? How below average ? Like I said I don’t do those . Guaranteed to be wrong
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I haven’t made any specific predictions for February yet but instead am only saying I don’t see any sign of a drastic change to mild domination in the SE and have plenty of hope it averages BN in the first half of February based on models, analogs (like 1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895), and the MJO.

Ok, what the heck. I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14. I’m not predicting wintry precip as that’s a crapshoot, but being BN helps more than hurts the chances.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I remember when the current pattern was suppose to be intermediate COOL shots … those were fun times … no one knows squat past a month and even that’s generous
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I agree 100% which is why I remember us all kind of hesitantly saying “ January will be a pattern change , not sure if temporary “. I say the same about this , will the pattern reload or will the coming moderation signal a change ? I lean towards the pattern changing to one that doesn’t favor the current cold . Signaled by the changes out towards Alaska which have consistently been hanging in model runs .
 
Lickwx said:
I agree 100% which is why I remember us all kind of hesitantly saying “ January will be a pattern change , not sure if temporary “. I say the same about this , will the pattern reload or will the coming moderation signal a change ? I lean towards the pattern changing to one that doesn’t favor the current cold . Signaled by the changes out towards Alaska which have consistently been hanging in model runs .
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Fair .. I favor something not so warm but certainly not as cold as we are dealing with through the end of January.. cold enough for snow I think so and also I’m sure we still get those highs that will continue to push cooler air our way throughout so I don’t see too warm but nothing drastically cold like right now
 
GaWx said:
I haven’t made any specific predictions for February yet but instead am only saying I don’t see any sign of a drastic change to mild domination in the SE and have plenty of hope it averages BN in the first half of February based on models, analogs (like 1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895), and the MJO.

Ok, what the heck. I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14. I’m not predicting wintry precip as that’s a crapshoot, but being BN helps more than hurts the chances.
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I like reading your analysis.. and it really doesn't matter if it comes true or not. I like reading it.
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
I honestly have been thinking we see a change in very early Feb., but it's simply & solely based on a declining PNA and repeatedly asking myself "how long can glory last?" ... if we can hang on ... Lord Bless Us ... selfishly, I just wanna get out and walk ... ?‍♂️
Phil
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Phil,
You’re making a good point about the beloved PNA as it is probably the #1 factor for cold in the SE. But there are other indices, models, analogs, etc that all tell me that a mild Feb is still not likely. Plus, I see no prediction for a -PNA yet. Actually, the GEFS still has a +PNA til the end but just not as strong:

E70D7422-B46C-4C38-BAC9-725AE3F3D7E7.gif
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
You’re making a good point about the beloved PNA as it is probably the #1 factor for cold in the SE. But there are other indices, models, analogs, etc that all tell me that a mild Feb is still not likely. Plus, I see no prediction for a -PNA yet. Actually, the GEFS still has a +PNA til the end but just not as strong:

View attachment 107481
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Nice (and needed) woodshed trip, Larry ... ;)
 
All good things I guess. Yuck. Western trough starting to show up on the GEFS way out. Need another score this week and it'll make reverting in February just fine.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png
 
Man just wall to wall troughing in the east. If the dominos fall the right way, we could see one of the most memorable stretches of winter in a very long time.

0z GFS

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65-3.png

6z GFS isn't terrible either.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65-4.png

Wonder how the CFS is looking?
 
That could end up a mid-upper south special. The odds are not all these storms are gonna track that far south and east. Even though I think carolina’s and Georgia will cash in too, probably Friday-Saturday.
 
tennessee storm said:
Hard to believe from okie city to Tulsa has been been this quite this far this winter
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Yeah I mean I was ok in December because well nobody was getting snow but all these flurries and dusting has done here the last 2 weeks is get me fired up wanting a real snowstorm. We average 8 inches this isn't Dallas or Central Alabama where years can go by with none...

And the truth is I don't care how cold it is this winter will get an F from me if we don't get a snowstorm here
 
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