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Pattern Januworry

Lickwx said:
However, since you do specific predictions are you suggesting you predict the pattern of storm chance after chance and cold wave after wave to continue into mid feb ? How below average ? Like I said I don’t do those . Guaranteed to be wrong
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I haven’t made any specific predictions for February yet but instead am only saying I don’t see any sign of a drastic change to mild domination in the SE and have plenty of hope it averages BN in the first half of February based on models, analogs (like 1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895), and the MJO.

Ok, what the heck. I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14. I’m not predicting wintry precip as that’s a crapshoot, but being BN helps more than hurts the chances.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I remember when the current pattern was suppose to be intermediate COOL shots … those were fun times … no one knows squat past a month and even that’s generous
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I agree 100% which is why I remember us all kind of hesitantly saying “ January will be a pattern change , not sure if temporary “. I say the same about this , will the pattern reload or will the coming moderation signal a change ? I lean towards the pattern changing to one that doesn’t favor the current cold . Signaled by the changes out towards Alaska which have consistently been hanging in model runs .
 
Lickwx said:
I agree 100% which is why I remember us all kind of hesitantly saying “ January will be a pattern change , not sure if temporary “. I say the same about this , will the pattern reload or will the coming moderation signal a change ? I lean towards the pattern changing to one that doesn’t favor the current cold . Signaled by the changes out towards Alaska which have consistently been hanging in model runs .
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Fair .. I favor something not so warm but certainly not as cold as we are dealing with through the end of January.. cold enough for snow I think so and also I’m sure we still get those highs that will continue to push cooler air our way throughout so I don’t see too warm but nothing drastically cold like right now
 
GaWx said:
I haven’t made any specific predictions for February yet but instead am only saying I don’t see any sign of a drastic change to mild domination in the SE and have plenty of hope it averages BN in the first half of February based on models, analogs (like 1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895), and the MJO.

Ok, what the heck. I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14. I’m not predicting wintry precip as that’s a crapshoot, but being BN helps more than hurts the chances.
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I like reading your analysis.. and it really doesn't matter if it comes true or not. I like reading it.
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
I honestly have been thinking we see a change in very early Feb., but it's simply & solely based on a declining PNA and repeatedly asking myself "how long can glory last?" ... if we can hang on ... Lord Bless Us ... selfishly, I just wanna get out and walk ... ?‍♂️
Phil
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Phil,
You’re making a good point about the beloved PNA as it is probably the #1 factor for cold in the SE. But there are other indices, models, analogs, etc that all tell me that a mild Feb is still not likely. Plus, I see no prediction for a -PNA yet. Actually, the GEFS still has a +PNA til the end but just not as strong:

E70D7422-B46C-4C38-BAC9-725AE3F3D7E7.gif
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
You’re making a good point about the beloved PNA as it is probably the #1 factor for cold in the SE. But there are other indices, models, analogs, etc that all tell me that a mild Feb is still not likely. Plus, I see no prediction for a -PNA yet. Actually, the GEFS still has a +PNA til the end but just not as strong:

View attachment 107481
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Nice (and needed) woodshed trip, Larry ... ;)
 
No wind. See what we can do radiating tonight. I posted in whamby, but thats a pretty moon shining down. Hopefully packfan98 has a themometer he can check right at sunrise.
 
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