Pattern Januworry

[olhausen]

Yeah if you like dry cold weather

Really? We’ve had easily the most snowy January since 2011 and we are barely over the halfway point. We also have this coming in tomorrow night.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Yeah I mean I was ok in December because well nobody was getting snow but all these flurries and dusting has done here the last 2 weeks is get me fired up wanting a real snowstorm. We average 8 inches this isn't Dallas or Central Alabama where years can go by with none...

And the truth is I don't care how cold it is this winter will get an F if we don't get a snowstorm here

I think February is usually the best month for Tulsa. Be patient.

 

[Brent]

I think February is usually the best month for Tulsa. Be patient.

Yeah I haven't given up but we've had a larger problem for months of lack of moisture even back when it was nonstop warm it was dry...

 

[KyloG]

Now this is a textbook southern winter storm pattern

 

[Stormdoc]

That’s a good look. Slow down the energy a bit and it’s a big dog

 

[KyloG]

This is an interesting look day 7 to say the least...

 

[whatalife]

I know this is a surface map and the control was close.

 

[LickWx]

Raleigh is 5 degrees above the NAM forecast high and the HRRR. Charlotte is a solid 9 degrees above it looks like . Greensboro 6.

 

[Deleted member 609]

GFS has the same storm CMC had but it gets crushed

 

[TheBatman]

GFS has the same storm CMC had but it gets crushed
View attachment 107971

Here lately cmc been doing decent. This would be a good hit for both west and east areas.

 

[Tarheel1]

Here lately cmc been doing decent. This would be a good hit for both west and east areas. View attachment 107972

Accu35, is that you?

 

[LukeBarrette]

Well

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yep. Next man up. An absolute bomb

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The first day the Gfs puts actual “warmer” weather boardwide .. fantasy land though so we can’t trust ?

 

[Tarheel1]

The first day the Gfs puts actual “warmer” weather boardwide .. fantasy land though so we can’t trust ?View attachment 107987

Snowniner???

 

[LukeBarrette]

Yep. Next man up. An absolute bombView attachment 107986

Y’all can have the one on Saturday as long as you give me this one?

 

[Deleted member 609]

The first day the Gfs puts actual “warmer” weather boardwide .. fantasy land though so we can’t trust ?View attachment 107987

It's underestimating the snow pack

 

[Downeastnc]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Indeed, looking at H5 around this time, another PNA spike and negative tilt ridge into Canada, signaling more energy will be a diggin, watch for another threat to pop up here !! Our source region for damming above us is frozen

 

[pcbjr]

View attachment 107973
Well

so I actually for once get a 540 this year?

 

[BHS1975]

View attachment 107973
Well

That's gotta be the strongest ever for that latitude for a non tropical system.


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[LovingGulfLows]

That's gotta be the strongest ever for that latitude for a non tropical system.


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March 1993 was 972 in Southern GA.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

If someone told me this would be the forecast during a period of 10 days in January after we already had a winter storm .. I would laugh View attachment 108004.. this is impressive #januworryaboutnothing

 

[BHS1975]

If someone told me this would be the forecast during a period of 10 days in January after we already had a winter storm .. I would laugh View attachment 108004.. this is impressive #januworryaboutnothingView attachment 108005

Meh. Several days of subfreezing highs would be impressive. Haven't see that in a long while.


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[TheBatman]

Accu35, is that you?

Say again? When did Dubuque, Iowa become a Southeastern state? ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

How about that Canadian output earlier. rekt

 

[Avalanche]

How about that Canadian output earlier. rektView attachment 108051

If I got a third of that....

 

[TheBatman]

Nice spot to have the icon at hour 168 for our next week threat.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

us every 3 days asking this pattern what we got next. A line of Candidates patiently waiting their turn on every model

 

[Brent]

It's sad out here when I wish this would verify. Something besides a flurry

 

[HKY1994]

0z euro has a major winter storm brewing at day 8. Very very cold surface temps yet again. We’re in the middle of an epic stretch of winter weather folks.


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[Shaggy]

0z euro has a major winter storm brewing at day 8. Very very cold surface temps yet again. We’re in the middle of an epic stretch of winter weather folks.


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GFS also had several storms in the pipeline with most being pretty suppressed which is right where we want them.

 

[NCSNOW]

Something about these late week/weekend events: This gets started at the end of next week: GFS had it yesterday I beleive at the same timne

 

[NCSNOW]

Keep an eye on Mon/Tues. Swear this pattern reminds me so much of jan 2000, The greatest 10 day stretch of winter wx ever in central NC.
This Fri event and a artic front left behind draped across the GOM/Deep South. Watch for any pesky NS vorts nose diving down into this area. Regardless we have runners on the bases to score some more this month. Hopefully we can knock em in.

 

[KyloG]

This is a great look day 7 on the EPS. Big low in SE Canada, heights building in western provinces. That's 2 big check marks. Of course way out there in fantasy land so usual caveats apply.

Maybe this is the noreaster that leads to a pattern breakdown. ?‍

 

[weatherfide]

Tons of variability on the GEFS members beyond 72 hours. It's crazy. Anything could pop up in the long range, which is now between 72 and 120 hours, I think.

 

[deltadog03]

I see signs of maybe a change late this month and into first few days into FEB. noticing more and more storms along the west coast as we start FEB

 

[weatherfide]

I see signs of maybe a change late this month and into first few days into FEB. noticing more and more storms along the west coast as we start FEB

Me too. I think we are about to switch to a trough in the west in February. I also don't see any real promising setups in the next two weeks. It's looking like we are going to leave January with a few cold rains and near average temps. That will not erase the huge warm departure's earlier this month. I can see Atlanta staying 4 to 5 degrees above average for the month, easy.

 

[J.C.]

Me too. I think we are about to switch to a trough in the west in February. I also don't see any real promising setups in the next two weeks. It's looking like we are going to leave January with a few cold rains and near average temps. That will not erase the huge warm departure's earlier this month. I can see Atlanta staying 4 to 5 degrees above average for the month, easy.

Its just incredible to me where KATL's temps are still after 18 days, KPDK , which is around 15 miles north is over 2 degrees colder. I'm 15 miles north of KPDK and I'm 51.5/34.2. Just a crazy gradient.

KATL KPDK