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Pattern Novemburrr

Still trying on the GFS for Thursday/ Friday next week!?9E3EB444-F6D9-4746-9850-B21E041B3800.png
 
GEFS producing snow east of the mountains. 2nd run in a row I believe 1B0CB36D-1A6C-4213-92B3-6C7D25D4FFFF.png
 
weatherfide said:
GEFS says first freeze around 11-15 for Atlanta. That sounds typical for the fall season. I'm ready for these leaves to be down. I need to thin some sweet gums out and would like them to be less heavy.
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Yeah I’m ready get leaves down and mulched into the ground , already getting prepared for spring . Looking forward to a even more beautiful yard next season .
 
I heard the euro seasonal came out today and pretty cold for this month and December if its correct. Big bering sea ridge indicated ??
 
SD said:
I'll take my chances in the last 10 days of November to be honest
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As early as the 20th might be pushing it for those of us outside the mountains and foothills, but I see you point. With the overall pattern progression appearing to follow LaNina climo, I could certainly see many of us on this board( perhaps some that are very overdue) scoring something from the last couple days of November and into December. One thing I would like to see after next weeks warm up is to start building some snow cover across the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast…. Hopefully when front comes through late next week it can start getting some Lake Effect going in those areas. I would be nice to have that help with any CAD that sets up.
 
SD said:
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see a few snow/sleet/graupel reports outside of the mountains late next week of we keep this deep deep trough look
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Can’t wait for the clipper pattern that the GFS is showing, to come to fruition! ☃️
 
So is it raining in Durham on Sunday ? Out here planning a date so I need to know . Looks like no it’s too far west but idk.
 
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Is it just me or has the warm up for next week starting to cool a bit?? Yesterday I was looking at highs 70-75 and lows 50-55 after Monday. Now while still seeing highs around 71-72, lows are in the upper 30s to low 40s until Friday when there’s clouds and rain.
 
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Chazwin said:
Is it just me or has the warm up for next week starting to cool a bit?? Yesterday I was looking at highs 70-75 and lows 50-55 after Monday. Now while still seeing highs around 71-72, lows are in the upper 30s to low 40s until Friday when there’s clouds and rain.
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No I sorta saw that too. Think it ends up being warm either way .
 
Lickwx said:
No I sorta saw that too. Think it ends up being warm either way .
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Yeah it just looks like we see a few days with some low dewpoints and we end up with a big spread between highs and lows…that will put us probably put around 2-3 degrees above average overall next week.
 
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 233 pm Friday: A return to autumn is still offered for the
better part of next week. The model guidance continues to show
a positively-tilted upper ridge moving in overhead Tuesday then
flattening briefly on Wednesday, followed by reamplification along
the Eastern Seaboard in response to a large and deep upper trof
digging over the Plains on Thursday. Dry weather will continue into
the middle of the week with high temps upwards of five degrees
above normal into Thursday. From Thursday onward, confidence
goes down as model solutions diverge with respect to the timing
of a sfc cold front expected to move around the base of the deep
and amplifying upper trof to our west through Friday. There is
agreement that moisture will return ahead of the approaching trof
on Thursday, with precip possibly breaking out in the southerly
upslope areas during the day. The 12Z run of the GFS blows the
front through quickly Thursday night and early Friday, but the
ECMWF is more slow and deliberate in keeping the boundary over
the region through Friday. Given the slow movement of the upper
trof axis, think the ECMWF is the more likely outcome. For now,
precip prob was limited to the chance range. Too early to say if
this poses a significant severe weather risk, but it is certainly
plausible just based on pattern recognition, even if the models
don`t really respond with any instability ahead of the front.

GSP watching this for severe weather.
 
So close. Honestly if anything like this we’re to happen I wouldn’t be surprised to see several snow showers breaking containment inB900965E-301C-455A-AB32-A8B3763EE343.jpeg the mountains into the Piedmont of NC
 
Thanks to NE winds/CAD and steady rain the last few hours:

I think the 45 at KSAV of the last 3 hours, which is the coldest of fall to date, has been tied for the coldest of any major reporting station in the SE during those times. In the entire contiguous US, only parts of the NE were colder and not by much.
 
I’m so glad these temps are not getting as colder around this time last year…looks like it’s going to be better than last year after all… but I do hope you guys score in the southeast this coming winter season especially those south and east of the mountains6B5B26E5-62E8-4431-9B55-EC7E51DC28F9.jpeg
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I’m so glad these temps are not getting as colder around this time last year…looks like it’s going to be better than last year after all… but I do hope you guys score in the southeast this coming winter season especially those south and east of the mountainsView attachment 94442
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Wait till February. You be ready to get the hell outta dodge ?
 
GaWx said:
Thanks to NE winds/CAD and steady rain the last few hours:

I think the 45 at KSAV of the last 3 hours, which is the coldest of fall to date, has been tied for the coldest of any major reporting station in the SE during those times. In the entire contiguous US, only parts of the NE were colder and not by much.
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Yes can verify there is a wind chill on the streets of Savannah.... putting the burrrr in Novemburrr
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I’m so glad these temps are not getting as colder around this time last year…looks like it’s going to be better than last year after all… but I do hope you guys score in the southeast this coming winter season especially those south and east of the mountainsView attachment 94442
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Just get ready . Winter going be pretty harsh this season in the northwest
 
Gonna be at 4000 ft for a 3 day weekend, game in 7 days. Getting a little excited about some upslope snow showers. Swear you can't beat living in NW NC. Envy them. They get to live in the south and all they need is a NW wind in the winter to see snow. No BL issues, CAA being delayed by topography. Hottest it gets during dog days of summer on the hottest of hot days is 84. Awesone Golf courses, trout fishing.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Holy cow the GFS in unloading genuine arctic air throughout the whole country at the end of it’s run .. massive high pressure .. pure raw cold all due to the extremely tall western ridge
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Fighting the ridge though. Idek why we are looking at a 300+ GFS model with any seriousness haha
 
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