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Pattern Novemburrr

Myfrotho704_ said:
The last couple weeks has basically been presenting Classic last nina type things, the pattern has been mostly warm this October and quite AN, with a dominating pacific trough which has mostly been keeping a pacific firehose over NA, but little changes in the pacific is gonna result in thisView attachment 94041but we’re already getting this look back again, it’s a La Niña actually acting like a La Niña for once View attachment 94042
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I hope that's not going to last all winter. :(
 
cd2play said:
I hope that's not going to last all winter. :(
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It’s not bad, while the pacific trough would probably mean dominating warmth most of the time if it was to stay, if we retrograded to this from time to time in cycles then there would shots at SE snow 989407B2-62E4-4AD4-A88D-B33E083FCBA8.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The last couple weeks has basically been presenting Classic last nina type things, the pattern has been mostly warm this October and quite AN, with a dominating pacific trough which has mostly been keeping a pacific firehose over NA, but little changes in the pacific with retrogression is gonna result in this, when the cold happens in la ninas it’s typically more potent View attachment 94041but we’re already getting this look back again, it’s a La Niña actually acting like a La Niña for once View attachment 94042
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This is why I have believed since July that we’re gonna see a highly variable winter (especially the first half) with mild stretches and cold stretches.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like the mild pacific firehose is gonna come back, continues getting closer and closer View attachment 94039View attachment 94040
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In the dead of winter w/ larger wavelengths and an equatorward displaced jet, that's a good pattern for me to score. To get a big snow in Arizona & New Mexico, you look for a ridge that noses into the Gulf of Alaska and upper trough that slides down the west coast, cutting off in the process and digging into far northern Mexico ahead of a ridge over eastern Canada and the Lakes.
 
I’m really liking the -WPO models are showing tho eventually. which is the difference in the repeating patterns we’ve been seeing, that -WPO is gonna a unload some big cold toward our side/Canada if it’s persistent, only thing you risk with a -WPO tho is getting a southeast ridge
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m really liking the -WPO models are showing tho eventually. which is the difference in the repeating patterns we’ve been seeing, that -WPO is gonna a unload some big cold toward our side/Canada if it’s persistent, only thing you risk with a -WPO tho is getting a southeast ridge
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2007, 2010, 2011, 2017 all attempted or did get the ridge into AK in November with varying results across the conus into the SE.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I smell a CAD coming on. We get a little more stream separation w/ the trough axis on the East coast, that's all she wrote.
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Screams onset sleet this week after several mornings of dry chilly weather. CAD will show last minute with 30s and mixed bag to rain due to low level dry air getting stuck east of the mtns. MTN snows could develop with stronger storm systems in this pattern.
 
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