Pattern Novemburrr

[Webberweather53]

As promised, here's my analysis maps of the snow event that occurred this past Wednesday night and Thursday morning for both NC & SC. Both have been archived on my site.

http://www.webberweather.com

View attachment 94453

View attachment 94452

Here’s GSP’s map of the event. Maybe they felt pressured to do one after seeing mine ?

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS is stupid and dumb. Has an accuracy of 5% correctness at 5 day lead time

This is why:

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This is why:View attachment 94479

Yeah it just made sense with a La Niña pattern IMO

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s cross polar flow

 

[Webberweather53]

That’s cross polar flow View attachment 94482View attachment 94483View attachment 94484View attachment 94485

Gimme a western us cold dump

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gimme a western us cold dump

Certainly that risk of the SER poking in with that look and establishing itself

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Very sensitive stuff if we amp up to much in AK, push the ridge out west anymore west that CP flow is going straight to Brent and webb, watch for the GEFS to be progressive with this sort of pattern

 

[Myfrotho704_]

However with a TPV near Canada that’s about as cold of a source as you can get in November

 

[Rain Cold]

However with a TPV near Canada that’s about as cold of a source as you can get in November View attachment 94489

What you don't want to see is a wave break roll-over ridge and create a trough back west underneath the top of the ridge. That's not shown in your image, which is good.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

West is about to get cold.

 

[SD]

West is about to get cold. View attachment 94492

I hope so so that you guys can get what you have obsessed over since August

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

 

[Rain Cold]

Just about the right placement for one of our winter storms on that image too. Missing the Triangle just west.

Seriously, this one will probably end up east. In the dead of winter, it would track right up through the coastal plain.

Looks to be a good call. Still may have a shower or two in the Triangle area tonight and some breezy conditions tomorrow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I want snow

 

[Mr. Golf]

I want snow View attachment 94501View attachment 94502View attachment 94503

I'm ready for that big daddy ice storm here. We are due for one for sure.?

 

[Mr. Golf]

 

[NCSNOW]

0z Gfs has snowbreaking containment into western piedmont, foothils next sat night into sun morn

 

[Arcc]

I want snow View attachment 94501View attachment 94502View attachment 94503

Starting to play with the 2013-2014 look.

 

[EmersonGA]

31.3 with an SD special mega frost. Kudzu doesn’t stand a chance.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

 

[Rosie]

31.3 with an SD special mega frost. Kudzu doesn’t stand a chance.

28 here?

 

[Webberweather53]

Still haven’t gotten below freezing here yet this year although we’ve had lots of pleasant, crisp mornings for over a month now and everything died in September lol

 

[gawxnative]

28 here?

"Bottomed out" at 32.4 here .. much colder than forecast ("near 40" ) light front on vehicle

 

[bigstick10]

I had 31.8 about an hour ago, roofs were white

 

[NoSnowATL]

Got some frozen dew this morning.
Frozen stuff- Total .01

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow we already have the 12z ICON in full … I love when daylight savings time ends

 

[Avalanche]

I need fantasy maps to get me through a noneventful weather week of sun and 70s.

 

[Tarheel1]

I need fantasy maps to get me through a noneventful weather week of sun and 70s.

 

[Avalanche]

View attachment 94508

Maybe some backside snow for you!!

 

[Met1985]

Had a low of 21 crisp degrees.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Absolutely painful that it’s another
8-9 months till these views again

 

[tennessee storm]

We finally getting into the negative side of the pdo. Been while , should get a lot more active moving forward.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Absolutely painful that it’s another
8-9 months till these views again View attachment 94509View attachment 94510View attachment 94511View attachment 94512View attachment 94513

8 months until there's another thunderstorm ? Pretty sure you'll see another storm before July.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why is it when we put a ridge in Alaska we get this instead, at least the GFS/GEFS is progressive with it, which is actually a bias

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Why is it when we put a ridge in Alaska we get this instead, at least the GFS/GEFS is progressive with it, which is actually a bias View attachment 94514View attachment 94515View attachment 94516

Yeah not too worried about these little intermittent ridges they’ll actually be quite welcome after the cold troughs we are getting. We certainly can’t expect a trough all the time over us but good news is ensembles in late November restablish a killer pattern with a -AO +PNA and some blocking over top as well .. Cant ask for much better than that at this point in time .. hope it holds

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah not too worried about these little intermittent ridges they’ll actually be quite welcome after the cold troughs we are getting. We certainly can’t expect a trough all the time over us but good news is ensembles in late November restablish a killer pattern with a -AO +PNA and some blocking over top as well .. Cant ask for much better than that at this point in time .. hope it holds

In the years with a cold November the last 4-5 years, it seems we try to get something the first week of December as the pattern finalizes then we wait till New Years for a good pattern again

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol, I was wondering why this thread was quiet today.

Pants bursting cold pattern right here

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Lol, I was wondering why this thread was quiet today.

Pants bursting cold pattern right here

View attachment 94519

I’m sure you’re glad to finally see some blue over the west after a weeks worth of ridges ??

 

[Webberweather53]

I’m sure you’re glad to finally see some blue over the west after a weeks worth of ridges ??

Don't worry, you'll get your turn at week after week of ridging this winter.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Don't worry, you'll get your turn at week after week of ridging this winter.

praying not but I know it’s going to be an uphill battle