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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cant get more beautiful than this! 
tennessee storm
Member
Always some hope way out in fantasy land guess , lol
Looks like the GEFS is coming to reality 
Downeastnc
Member
Just a wee little bit of a west shift on the 06Z ICON
Playing with fire wrt severe wx with this look 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Welp. That was fun while it lasted. No more novemburrrr on the gfs 
NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,191
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CFS did a good job a few weeks back showing the transition to normal, last 10 days of Oct into Nov.
I was just browsing seeing what it was coughing up for late Nov. Saw some board wide pics, to good to pass up. Only about 28 days till verefication lol. When I'm teeing off in 55 degree air Nov 30th, I'll come back and revisit this post and remind myself the CFS lucked up with this current, new found success. Close your eyes Myfrotho704
Enjoy. Think thats the 1st digital snow for everyone. I average about 300 inches per year.
I was just browsing seeing what it was coughing up for late Nov. Saw some board wide pics, to good to pass up. Only about 28 days till verefication lol. When I'm teeing off in 55 degree air Nov 30th, I'll come back and revisit this post and remind myself the CFS lucked up with this current, new found success. Close your eyes Myfrotho704
Enjoy. Think thats the 1st digital snow for everyone. I average about 300 inches per year.
I do like the building pac ridge, hopefully transient cool shots also mean transient warm shots
Agreed. Not really seeing anything hanging around too long right now. We're transitioning to longer wavelengths, which will make things interesting.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As weenie as these runs are, I always like looking at them (not just for the solutions they produce), but it shows us how we can win/score. A study on CFSv2 (or any other model) and the patterns in the model that produce big winter storms would be revealing, arguably perhaps even more so than a historical study, because we get so many runs every winter and it doesn't take us that many years to obtain enough runs to possess a sufficient sample of events in the model world to analyze, which also means the climate is fairly static over that time.
Notice in the days leading up to that event, there's a huge blocking high over the Bering Sea and eastern Siberia. This seeds the N American continent and preceding west-central US with Siberian air (the coldest air in the entire N hemisphere), which then gets tapped into by a wave interacting w/ the southern branch of the jet whose progression is accentuated by the subsequent trough over Alaska.
smast16
Member
I'm not really sure what this is saying, but i like the big ridge over the west coast.
I was thinking the same exact thing.
LickWx
Member
After Saturday keeps trending warmer in the forecast . Nice .
smast16
Member
It was the 18Z GFS at 300+ hours. what did you expect? This is also 384 hours out, this is wrong too
All those highs in the 50s are almost gone.
Snow opportunity for the NE and Northern mid Atlantic mid to late November. Only really good thing for us is the potential building blocks for a -nao.
You can see how the gfs is bouncing around post d10 and the 30 degree spreads in the eps. Get the trough/ ridge position right and you have something if you live to our north for us it's the difference in cold/SER
smast16
Member
If we get into a super wavy but progressive pattern we might scorch away snow pack across the conus anyway.
Looks like a decent amount of snow in Canada though on the gfs/cmc so that'll be helpful down the road