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Pattern Novemburrr

Webberweather53 said:
I smell a SE ridge coming on. This ridge is west of Alaska, which is more favorable to -PNA

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What I've learned from pro mets including you and verified by my own observations is that if you want the best shot at cold in the SE US, you'd want the mean ridge to be over W NA from W Canada (and possibly far E Alaska) down through the W US and a trough centered near the longitude of the C Aleutian chain. I realize that this isn't the best shot at cross polar flow. Rather, this is the best shot at cold in the SE from what I've learned. So going further, I don't see having cross polar flow as necessarily increasing the chance for SE cold. Sometimes it ends up leading to a very cold SE but often it misses and we get Feb of 2021 instead with the intense cold in the C and/or W US.

This is more for the SE states (MS eastward but especially GA/FL. SC, NC). W TN/AR/LA often do better coldwise.
 
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GaWx said:
What I've learned from pro mets including you and verified by my own observations is that if you want the best shot at cold in the SE US, you'd want the mean ridge to be over W NA from W Canada (and possibly far E Alaska) down through the W US and a trough centered near the longitude of the C Aleutian chain. I realize that this isn't the best shot at cross polar flow. Rather, this is the best shot at cold in the SE from what I've learned. So going further, I don't see having cross polar flow as necessarily increasing the chance for SE cold. Sometimes it ends up leading to a very cold SE but often it misses and we get Feb of 2021 instead with the intense cold in the C and/or W US.

This is more for the SE states (MS eastward but especially GA/FL. SC, NC). W TN/AR/LA often do better coldwise.
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Bring the snow and ice to the great state of Arkansas ??
 
Webberweather53 said:
I smell a SE ridge coming on. This ridge is west of Alaska, which is more favorable to -PNA

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It is hard to bet against the Webb and the trend from the 0Z GEFS through the 18Z GEFS isn't encouraging for SE cold until very late in the run. Before that, it is the warmest run of the last 4 by a good margin. Then it suddenly gets cold. Sound familiar?
 
GaWx said:
It is hard to bet against the Webb and the trend from the 0Z GEFS through the 18Z GEFS isn't encouraging for SE cold until very late in the run. Before that, it is the warmest run of the last 4 by a good margin. Then it suddenly gets cold. Sound familiar?
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carrot in front the ole donkey dangling routine. lol., keeps get pushing further back
 
Webberweather53 said:
The downward circulation response from the stratosphere takes several weeks-few months to materialize. You're not going to see any benefits that early
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Hmm yeah the tweet suggests we could see ramifications around late November with that arrow but heck if you’re right that would put us at a great time in peak climo! Certainly would be nice to see
 
I personally like waking up late but having it only be 9-10 ocklock and having more day to do stuff. The light leaving early doesn’t effect me as much at this point in my life plus gotta get the sun down early so snow can start making an appearance at a good time ??
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I personally like waking up late but having it only be 9-10 ocklock and having more day to do stuff. The light leaving early doesn’t effect me as much at this point in my life plus gotta get the sun down early so snow can start making an appearance at a good time ??
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This means when we have a snow day, the snow day lasts an hour longer. :)
 
Mr. Golf said:
If the progression of mjo into phases 4 5 and 6 is correct, the models and ensembles should start showing big cold shots east of rocky mountains with regularity
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There's really no cold signal in the short-term from phase 4-6 MJO. It only occurs when it reaches 8-2 at very large positive lag (20-25+ days) (bottom right part of this diagram). Even then, there's signal for a SE ridge/-PNA

whmjo6.ond.t850composite.web.png
 
Met1985 said:
Im loving this getting dark early because it's just a step closer to winter.

Looks like we have a few shots of cold in the 6 to 10 day time frame but out from that is a crap shoot.
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Glad you made ya a profile not enough of us MTN posters. And I like how we're sitting atm considering it's early November.
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
Glad you made ya a profile not enough of us MTN posters. And I like how we're sitting atm considering it's early November.
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Oh man im a looong time member over here. Im sure SD remembers me and Cold Rain lol. A few others but I just got out of the habit of posting over here as much. Seemed like some drama or what not but looks like a lot of solid posters here now.
 
Sheesh the 00z models were all very very close to something bigger .. much more amped upper low really driving In cold air but also systems trying to pinwheel around and kick off a coastal system .. it’s a fine line
 
Euro says wait till Monday for upslope after NCSNOW has left town. GFS says to go pound sand everyone, tourist and locals. Nada Burger
 
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