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Pattern Januworry

StormWatch said:
Certainly things can go boom! I don't think the GFS/Euro will have a good handle on it until 1-2 days prior, or even the day of. Sometimes they can not detect some features well due to the lower res. There is still model inconsistency, even with the GEFS members. Of course, the high res mesoscale models will show better clarity since they are at a much higher res.

There is still a low, it's a surface low that is embedded within the boundary. The setup looks good at 500mb concerning no shear, however there is shear taking place in the mid layers, which isn't good. If the shearing takes place, this means the system would likely give away to flurries on the back side of the boundary.
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If anyone gets backed flurries, it would be NE NC. Cold chasing moisture systems rarely work. There’s a non-zero chance, but I wouldn’t go forecast anything until you get into 3k Nam range.
 
D657F680-6A6E-48DE-84A2-CC12D7C129E2.jpeg
Nothing could happen with this look, just a strong cold front. Mountain snow showers is all that is likely.
 
CMC trying to do something.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png
 
LukeBarrette said:
We are 110 hours out and the differences are nuts
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The differences are not nuts they are all in the realm of possibility .. as I’ve stated past few days and others as well this is a very delicate situation and a very few minor tweaks can make this a much more fun event for some .. but no one should expect anything but cold air entering the picture again for us
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
The differences are not nuts they are all in the realm of possibility .. as I’ve stated past few days and others as well this is a very delicate situation and a very few minor tweaks can make this a much more fun event for some .. but no one should expect anything but cold air entering the picture again for us
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Chill it out buckaroo, I know it’s a likely nothing-burger. Was just saying how differences are still large with time dwindling.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Chill it out buckaroo, I know it’s a likely nothing-burger. Was just saying how differences are still large with time dwindling.
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I’m chill haha I’m just saying there’s not a huge difference between the scenarios the CMC had a bit better tilt which allowed storm formation a bit sooner which brought out some more precip .. just small tweaks can make these changes
 
Snowfan said:
CMC trying to do something.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png
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Correct, it did. It would have been a quite significant winter storm if the trough was deeper and more tilt - it's not bad though.
64ff729951e4b9604d732ba2a15478d4.jpg


Edit: I suspect that the 0z Euro will show something similar to the 0z CMC. The Euro/CMC tend to have agreement. I think the GFS will end up as an outliner but eventually coming to an agreement.
 
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