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Pattern Januworry

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah wouldn’t bank on much more than mountain snow with this first system. Looks like a decent low accum setup for those guys. Will be nice to see them get on the board.
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I wouldn't entirely discount it for areas outside of the mountains. There's still the chance/time for it to materialize into greater significance.
 
Chandler said:
snow mean surprisingly showing up a lil for that cold chasing moisture set up View attachment 99610
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This is a classic middle Tennessee Flurry special. I’m not complaining as it will be our first flakes of the season if it happens. As I said earlier I’m more interested in the cold air that finally looks to be coming then any individual snow storm that may or may not happen. As it stands it’s looking like I won’t get above freezing during the day on Sunday plus the lows should get into the teens for the coldest night of this winter so far.
 
Overall there still isn't any sign of a sustained wintry pattern for the SE as a whole. The MJO may also be headed for phase 6 come mid-late January. As others have noted, the next two weeks may present the best chance, but even that is not too hopeful at this time.
 
NoSnowATL said:
View attachment 99555
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And it's rolling back to 6. Lol. i'm fairly certain a few people said "That's not how that works".

It's actually comical. Take the most 'oof' ways to fail, and that's what's going to happen. We'll never sniff anything more than a day or 2 in phase 8 (if any) as we roll back to 6. I bet we see a quick +PNA as the pattern reloads, and we get a transient cold shot. After that it'll be all she wrote.
 
Parker said:
View attachment 99626View attachment 99627View attachment 99628I know I’m grasping for straws here but it’s interesting to see both the 06z GEFS and EPS members tick up with snowfall members for our area. Also the UKMET looks very interesting as well.
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You are not grasping IMO. Trends today will be telling. Gfs took a nice reverse trend back toward more southern energy consolidation. Other models slowly coming on board for at least a novelty event for some. CMC and ICON now have some snow.

Interested in 12z!
 
Poimen said:
Overall there still isn't any sign of a sustained wintry pattern for the SE as a whole. The MJO may also be headed for phase 6 come mid-late January. As others have noted, the next two weeks may present the best chance, but even that is not too hopeful at this time.
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There’s nothing showing the MJO going back into phase 6. They’ve all had the MJO either entering phase 8 or circling through the COD back into phase 7 which any of those is great for sustained cold in the East. Also you’re seeing way more ridging above Alaska and pushing these vortexes East creating a +PNA behind it. This is the best the models have looked in a month and the odds of cold and some form of wintery weather in the East and southeast is a much much better possibility. Some of y’all would find negativity if Jesus himself was coming back to bring us home to the promise land.
 
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