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Pattern Januworry

Cad Wedge NC said:
One thing I have noticed about living in the shadow of the Apps. for 57 years, is that the cold must get in here first to have a good winter storm. Sure, I have seen changeovers here before, but they rarely amount to much. Betting on a changeover from rain to accumulating snow in the Foothills/Piedmont is a fools errand. Down-sloping will dry it up 95% of the time.
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We get the benefit of CAD; but this type of setup is usually just for our west of the Apps friends. The mountains slow the cold advance just enough to allow the precip to scoot on by first.

The mountains effects on our winter storms: "what giveth taketh away"
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Our 500MB energy on the GFS has been trending steadily away from a southern lobe to a strung out front passage. This won't cut it besides NW snow flurries. We need to get back to the cutoff/southern lobe look from yesterday. Negative tilt would help too.

Problem is the 120hr trend normally is the one that sticks. Maybe it'll reverse some over the next 48hrs.

View attachment 99577
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I think this is fine at this point lots of time for very minor changes to happen and tweak this much better but no one should’ve been banking on this being a legit event at all so far .. not the most ideal set up so we just watch for a novelty event which is all I’m expecting if it comes to fruition at this point .. plus we all know we’re going to get NAMd at least once ?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I think this is fine at this point lots of time for very minor changes to happen and tweak this much better but no one should’ve been banking on this being a legit event at all so far .. not the most ideal set up so we just watch for a novelty event which is all I’m expecting if it comes to fruition at this point .. plus we all know we’re going to get NAMd at least once ?
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The NAM will certainly be beautiful at some point in the next few days ?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
One thing I have noticed about living in the shadow of the Apps. for 57 years, is that the cold must get in here first to have a good winter storm. Sure, I have seen changeovers here before, but they rarely amount to much. Betting on a changeover from rain to accumulating snow in the Foothills/Piedmont is a fools errand. Down-sloping will dry it up 95% of the time.
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Same down here. I can only remember one good change over off a gulf storm, and it was much better the farther into Ala I got from Atl. A good gom low will be juicy after the low passes, and gives a chance. A front will most likely dry the air out, except for maybe Rosie, up along the line. or NeGa, up in the corner. I'd love to see the front stall, so an impulse come come up and cross Fla.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Our 500MB energy on the GFS has been trending steadily away from a southern lobe to a strung out front passage. This won't cut it besides NW snow flurries. We need to get back to the cutoff/southern lobe look from yesterday. Negative tilt would help too.

Problem is the 120hr trend normally is the one that sticks. Maybe it'll reverse some over the next 48hrs.

View attachment 99577
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mkgif.php

18z GEFS disagrees
 
Mr. Golf said:
We are loosing the -nao/ao now and I was afraid that happening when the pna became less negative. Oh well
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Looking at NOAA’s NAO and AO forecast graphs, both do look to go slightly positive here in the next week, which is why early next week’s cold shot is in and out fairly quickly… after that though it appears they both trend back to negative, which would make sense with the MJO progression. BTW, NOAA has a done really good job forecasting those lately
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
IMO we are very close to getting something interesting with this system .. many gefs have some sort of break out of snow at the tail end of this system with cold air collapsing the column .. has the potential for dynamic snow with heavier rates which is great for lucky lollipop winners .. let’s see what the euro chooses
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Certainly things can go boom! I don't think the GFS/Euro will have a good handle on it until 1-2 days prior, or even the day of. Sometimes they can not detect some features well due to the lower res. There is still model inconsistency, even with the GEFS members. Of course, the high res mesoscale models will show better clarity since they are at a much higher res.
Fountainguy97 said:
Our 500MB energy on the GFS has been trending steadily away from a southern lobe to a strung out front passage. This won't cut it besides NW snow flurries. We need to get back to the cutoff/southern lobe look from yesterday. Negative tilt would help too.

Problem is the 120hr trend normally is the one that sticks. Maybe it'll reverse some over the next 48hrs.

View attachment 99577
Click to expand...
There is still a low, it's a surface low that is embedded within the boundary. The setup looks good at 500mb concerning no shear, however there is shear taking place in the mid layers, which isn't good. If the shearing takes place, this means the system would likely give away to flurries on the back side of the boundary.
 
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