ATLwxfan
Member
Is there anything to this on the GFS or should I just pay it no mind?
Anytime I see anafrontal snow I laugh like Henry from Goodfellas.
It ain’t happening.
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Anytime I see anafrontal snow I laugh like Henry from Goodfellas.
It ain’t happening.
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Happened last year around the same time for areas around ATL lol
ATLwxfan
Member
Points far north and west. It was largely cooked by the time it got to metro ATL
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Just saw the eps plumes
This is a good look for ensembles?? ?
Broken024
Member
Here is the wxbell version it's not very helpful
Here is the weather.us version with the line graphs that's a little more helpful
Seeing the clustering of members with highs 35-45/50 is nice. Obviously there's still room to go to what the warm members have but this run had less of those and given the time of year it doesn't take a lot more than seasonal cold to be in the game
Avalanche
Member
It hasnt happened yet, that's why its a forecast.
NoSnowATL
Member
FWD made a funny...
000
FXUS64 KFWD 282024
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
224 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021
Now for the upsetting news...I have removed the mention of snow from
the forecast. Previously we had a mention of sprinkles or flurries
early Saturday morning as the base of the upper level trough moved
overhead. With the upper level trough having slowed down in the
latest model runs, the column will likely have dried out enough
by the time the trough arrives that snow, or any precipitation,
will be very, very hard to come by. It may not be entirely out of
the realm of possibility as we still have a few days of model runs
to assess.
000
FXUS64 KFWD 282024
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
224 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021
Now for the upsetting news...I have removed the mention of snow from
the forecast. Previously we had a mention of sprinkles or flurries
early Saturday morning as the base of the upper level trough moved
overhead. With the upper level trough having slowed down in the
latest model runs, the column will likely have dried out enough
by the time the trough arrives that snow, or any precipitation,
will be very, very hard to come by. It may not be entirely out of
the realm of possibility as we still have a few days of model runs
to assess.
dsaur
Member
Need a weak secondary low to form up and track over Fla. Then we are money, if the cold gets in. And it times right...and the haints don't get it, and a butterfly in Peru doesn't sneeze, and more of us have been good rather than bad, and we all wish real hard, but yeah, there's a chance for some flurries, or a mega storm. It's a mystery of life ....if, if, ifIs there anything to this on the GFS or should I just pay it no mind?
If we can get a storm track out of the gulf and then up the Atlantic coastline there will be a lot of energy to tap from the warm waters.
Crappy map but it gives you the idea:
Crappy map but it gives you the idea:
Sheesh we are deadly close to something here the 18z ICON and GFS would probably be backside snow flurries verbatim .. but very slight adjustments can make this thing a much bigger deal .. I’m hungry for ensembles
Mr. Golf
Member
We are loosing the -nao/ao now and I was afraid that happening when the pna became less negative. Oh well
Broken024
Member
Monster anal front
Cad Wedge NC
Member
One thing I have noticed about living in the shadow of the Apps. for 57 years, is that the cold must get in here first to have a good winter storm. Sure, I have seen changeovers here before, but they rarely amount to much. Betting on a changeover from rain to accumulating snow in the Foothills/Piedmont is a fools errand. Down-sloping will dry it up 95% of the time.
Broken024
Member
Oh for sure
I've seen a many disappointing 1600ft snows especially when I worked in north cove at Baxter. So unless a low trys to pop on the tail its a no go.
Fountainguy97
Member
Our 500MB energy on the GFS has been trending steadily away from a southern lobe to a strung out front passage. This won't cut it besides NW snow flurries. We need to get back to the cutoff/southern lobe look from yesterday. Negative tilt would help too.
Problem is the 120hr trend normally is the one that sticks. Maybe it'll reverse some over the next 48hrs.
Problem is the 120hr trend normally is the one that sticks. Maybe it'll reverse some over the next 48hrs.
Broken024
Member
