Is there anything to this on the GFS or should I just pay it no mind?
Anytime I see anafrontal snow I laugh like Henry from Goodfellas.
It ain’t happening.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Anytime I see anafrontal snow I laugh like Henry from Goodfellas.
It ain’t happening.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Happened last year around the same time for areas around ATL lol
Points far north and west. It was largely cooked by the time it got to metro ATL
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This is a good look for ensembles?? ?
Here is the wxbell version it's not very helpful
Here is the weather.us version with the line graphs that's a little more helpful
Seeing the clustering of members with highs 35-45/50 is nice. Obviously there's still room to go to what the warm members have but this run had less of those and given the time of year it doesn't take a lot more than seasonal cold to be in the game
It hasnt happened yet, that's why its a forecast.
FWD made a funny...
000
FXUS64 KFWD 282024
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
224 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021
Now for the upsetting news...I have removed the mention of snow from
the forecast. Previously we had a mention of sprinkles or flurries
early Saturday morning as the base of the upper level trough moved
overhead. With the upper level trough having slowed down in the
latest model runs, the column will likely have dried out enough
by the time the trough arrives that snow, or any precipitation,
will be very, very hard to come by. It may not be entirely out of
the realm of possibility as we still have a few days of model runs
to assess.
000
FXUS64 KFWD 282024
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
224 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021
Now for the upsetting news...I have removed the mention of snow from
the forecast. Previously we had a mention of sprinkles or flurries
early Saturday morning as the base of the upper level trough moved
overhead. With the upper level trough having slowed down in the
latest model runs, the column will likely have dried out enough
by the time the trough arrives that snow, or any precipitation,
will be very, very hard to come by. It may not be entirely out of
the realm of possibility as we still have a few days of model runs
to assess.
Need a weak secondary low to form up and track over Fla. Then we are money, if the cold gets in. And it times right...and the haints don't get it, and a butterfly in Peru doesn't sneeze, and more of us have been good rather than bad, and we all wish real hard, but yeah, there's a chance for some flurries, or a mega storm. It's a mystery of life ....if, if, ifIs there anything to this on the GFS or should I just pay it no mind?
If we can get a storm track out of the gulf and then up the Atlantic coastline there will be a lot of energy to tap from the warm waters.
Crappy map but it gives you the idea:
Crappy map but it gives you the idea:
Sheesh we are deadly close to something here the 18z ICON and GFS would probably be backside snow flurries verbatim .. but very slight adjustments can make this thing a much bigger deal .. I’m hungry for ensembles
One thing I have noticed about living in the shadow of the Apps. for 57 years, is that the cold must get in here first to have a good winter storm. Sure, I have seen changeovers here before, but they rarely amount to much. Betting on a changeover from rain to accumulating snow in the Foothills/Piedmont is a fools errand. Down-sloping will dry it up 95% of the time.
I've seen a many disappointing 1600ft snows especially when I worked in north cove at Baxter. So unless a low trys to pop on the tail its a no go.
Our 500MB energy on the GFS has been trending steadily away from a southern lobe to a strung out front passage. This won't cut it besides NW snow flurries. We need to get back to the cutoff/southern lobe look from yesterday. Negative tilt would help too.
Problem is the 120hr trend normally is the one that sticks. Maybe it'll reverse some over the next 48hrs.
Problem is the 120hr trend normally is the one that sticks. Maybe it'll reverse some over the next 48hrs.
