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Pattern Januworry

Dewpoint Dan said:
But would the ratio actually be 10:1 ?
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I actually don’t really care about the snow it’s showing as it’s unlikely to be anywhere near what the model is showing. At this point I care much more about the cold coming and knocking this warmth out which is way more likely then the snow. I won’t be shocked however if this area sees some flakes fly on Sunday night into Monday that add up to a dusting. Middle Tennessee has not seen a flake yet so it’s bound to happen sooner then later .
 
olhausen said:
I actually don’t really care about the snow it’s showing as it’s unlikely to be anywhere near what the model is showing. At this point I care much more about the cold coming and knocking this warmth out which is way more likely then the snow. I won’t be shocked however if this area sees some flakes fly on Sunday night into Monday that add up to a dusting. Middle Tennessee has not seen a flake yet so it’s bound to happen sooner then later .
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Yeah, just get us back to normal temperatures averaged out over a couple of weeks. That’s all I need to be content.

Good news is that new Euro weeklies are a bit colder for 1/13-23 for the SE vs the prior run due to less -PNA/more +PNA though they continue to show no -AO or -NAO. For the last 3 weeks of January, it has the SE averaging near +1.5 vs 1991-2020 climo, which I’d take in a heartbeat especially compared to the current torch. That compares to the +3 of the Thursday run and would mean a pretty normal January overall, but will it verify? The weeklies I believe have a bit of a warm bias but OTOH models have been solidly cold biased this month overall. So, I just hope it is close to reality and that the SER doesn’t try to rear its ugly head too much.
 
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GaWx said:
Yeah, just get us back to normal temperatures averaged out over a couple of weeks. That’s all I need to be content.

Good news is that new Euro weeklies are a bit colder for 1/13-23 for the SE vs the prior run due to less -PNA/more +PNA though they continue to show no -AO or -NAO. For the last 3 weeks of January, it has the SE averaging near +1.5 vs 1991-2020 climo, which I’d take in a heartbeat especially compared to the current torch. That compares to the +3 of the Thursday run and would mean a pretty normal January overall, but will it verify? The weeklies I believe have a bit of a warm bias but OTOH models have been solidly cold biased this month overall. So, I just hope it is close to reality and that the SER doesn’t try to rear its ugly head too much.
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Being. Dealing with a La Niña we’re going be dealing with a ser. Bet on that
 
Gfs says severe weather turns to backside snow… would be a wild weather event for some .. this looks to be the next storm to track .. severe or snow someone is getting something of the sorts. All models have some sort of back side system trying to take over at the southern Tail of the cold front .. interesting to see how it turns out .. might be one of those create it’s own cold air things
 
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