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Pattern Januworry

Nice day at the beach . Near 80 in Wilmington mid 60s here at Wrightsville along the shore. I had to go to the beach at least once figured today. Shoulda waited till Wednesday , gon be even warmer along the shore .
 
SD said:
This yields a big difference across the conus
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The key is the recovering heights off of the west coast there’s the big difference in both .. lower heights on the Gfs keeps it dumping out west and opens up the SER .. on the euro they are nowhere to be seen so cold air progresses East and keeps a lid on the tremendous ridging
 
whatalife said:
@Rain Cold says go with the GEFS. ;)
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The EPS has sucked this winter so far. And the GEFS seems to be similar to what we had so far. Want to lay odds on who turns out to be more correct lol

I'm disappointed by the non-obliteration of that ridge axis through the Aleutians. Hopefully that will change. It seems to be showing on both models but the Euro has the strongest anomaly to the north and set up as a block, which allows some shallow ridging across the extreme SW US....creates a broad trough. I still don't like the main ridge axis where it is, though, through the Aleutians.
 
Rain Cold said:
The EPS has sucked this winter so far. And the GEFS seems to be similar to what we had so far. Want to lay odds on who turns out to be more correct lol

I'm disappointed by the non-obliteration of that ridge axis through the Aleutians. Hopefully that will change. It seems to be showing on both models but the Euro has the strongest anomaly to the north and set up as a block, which allows some shallow ridging across the extreme SW US....creates a broad trough. I still don't like the main ridge axis where it is, though, through the Aleutians.
Click to expand...

I seem to recall the Euro was consistently warm this month while the GFS kept trying to break down and flip the pattern very early. That said, neither are great after D7 and I give little weight to either solution until the storm next weekend passes.
 
5 day mean. D10-15.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Still not giving up on the weekend here

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Of primary concern in the extended period is the potential for a
very strong cold front to enter the area early Saturday and
plunge through the region. There is the potential for wintry
precipitation behind the front as temperatures fall or begin to
fall during the day in all but far southeast Oklahoma...falling there
Saturday night. Model consistency remain limited at the moment,
so details aren`t possible at this point. But the odds are tipping
toward much colder air coming into all of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, with two disturbances crossing the central U.S.
that could result in precipitation in eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas in the cold air.
 
I saw sprinklers running over semi green Bermuda grass . This drought real . Sprinklers in the winter !
 
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