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Pattern Januworry

Looking at the mslp maps I think it's clipper dominated/late blooming. I would like to see at least one or 2 wild members in there but then again how many times have we had good means only to go to crap?
From the looks of it, ensembles and operationals have the trough axis too far to the east, so cold and dry. In my experience, far out in time they tend to retrograde as we get closer, so I kind of like the look at this point. And as you mentioned , we don’t do well with good snow means, LOL!
 
I hope they don't measure on patio tables..?
Also need to expand east along the NC/VA border, Warrenton in Warren Co. officially had 1.6, Littleton in Halifax Co appeared by pics I saw to have around an inch, I had .5 here. Good looking map though
 
I feel left out, my mulch turned white!
If you all could point me to peer reviewed resource. I would appreciate that. I tried the famous NC State winter storm database. Just went by CoCoRaHS. I didn’t mean to leave anyone out. Luckily, I saved the file.
 
If you all could point me to peer reviewed resource. I would appreciate that. I tried the famous NC State winter storm database. Just went by CoCoRaHS. I didn’t mean to leave anyone out. Luckily, I saved the file.
I think our observations are just as important as the observations of CoCoRaHS.
 
If you all could point me to peer reviewed resource. I would appreciate that. I tried the famous NC State winter storm database. Just went by CoCoRaHS. I didn’t mean to leave anyone out. Luckily, I saved the file.
No one is upset you "left them out", just passing along info to assist, we're all here to learn and contribute. Again the map looked professional good work.
 
Looking at the mslp maps I think it's clipper dominated/late blooming. I would like to see at least one or 2 wild members in there but then again how many times have we had good means only to go to crap?
Yeah it's a pattern that supports fairly fast movers and late developing systems, like you said. The north-Atlantic ridge won't help suppress and slow the flow, so we're having to rely on the PV, which often squashes waves. The position of the PV will make it hard for HP to lock into a favorable damming position.

That said, it's a decent pattern for timing something out. The model just isn't excited about any particular opportunity yet. But I bet if it continues to show this pattern shaping up, we'll see some nice fantasy systems and snow means on future runs.
 
Forecast low of 30, already down to 28.6 with moisture return commencing. Temps will warm once clouds roll in but RGEM still showing light freezing rain or drizzle. Only model though, we shall see.... should I start my own thread ?
 
Temps really look seasonable on the GFS which may not be a bad thing for wintery mischief.

At least that’s what I’m telling myself.

Too many times we have gotten burned by the PV shredder.


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Yeah it's a pattern that supports fairly fast movers and late developing systems, like you said. The north-Atlantic ridge won't help suppress and slow the flow, so we're having to rely on the PV, which often squashes waves. The position of the PV will make it hard for HP to lock into a favorable damming position.

That said, it's a decent pattern for timing something out. The model just isn't excited about any particular opportunity yet. But I bet if it continues to show this pattern shaping up, we'll see some nice fantasy systems and snow means on future runs.
We have energy flying around. We have op runs with energy cut off around Baja. Some modeling has the trough too far east and broad, some models have it just right. Most importantly cold appears to be there. All the pieces are there. There are things I don't like, like ridging in the 50/50 region, +NAO etc. But no pattern is perfect and this one is workable. If we had to have a phase 8 MJO, a +PNA coupled to a -EPO, -AO, -NAO and a 50/50 low all together we'd never snow.
 
Wow, how did I miss this. Tornado in Harnett Co before the snow moved in...



A coworker in Granville Co. said he heard what sounded like a train before work Monday morning. I never followed up to see if a potential tornado had touched down but I can definitely see where some tornados might have formed.


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Something I already alluded to yesterday on twitter, but Decent looking negative E Asia Mtn torque here around mid-month. Should pull the Pacific Jet back during the following week or two and yield a GOA-Aleutian ridge + -PNA + SE ridge combo by the time we reach the last week of January. Ultimately, setting us up for a prototypical warm Nina Feb

1641380193107.png
 
Here's my preliminary snow map for NC for the winter storm that hit parts of the SE US & the southern mid-Atlantic earlier this past week.

View attachment 101924

Looks perfect for my area! Watched the snow fall for a few hours but never stuck! Our mulch turnt white for about 10 mins! Great work on the map!


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Ole JB saying:
"Winter will remember December." Hopefully we can score January. Only other long shot would be some off the wall rogue March storm. But I think the Feb La Nina lag usually carries into March as well. Webber, what say you? Question have is I beleive I read, saw somewhere that La nina was gonna fade away late winter. Any truth to that? I honestly rely on Gawx and webb post to get vibe for Pacific seasonal forecast. They both follow them the most, have knowledge.
 
Ole JB saying:
"Winter will remember December." Hopefully we can score January. Only other long shot would be some off the wall rogue March storm. But I think the Feb La Nina lag usually carries into March as well. Webber, what say you? Question have is I beleive I read, saw somewhere that La nina was gonna fade away late winter. Any truth to that? I honestly rely on Gawx and webb post to get vibe for Pacific seasonal forecast. They both follow them the most, have knowledge.
Think Eric said pretty much La Niña be gone by late spring completely
 
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