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Pattern Januworry

Not sure if the latest FFC discussion has been posted ... have not caught up on all the posts ... but here is the last paragraph ... not too much added from earlier discussion (bold and italics added for emphasis):

A strong shortwave will dive across the Southern Plains on
Saturday night and eject eastward across the Southeast on Sunday
with an associated surface low tracking across the Southeast.
Models are signaling the potential for strong upper-level dynamics
(ample bulk shear and DPVA) and favorable low-level shear
profiles, though lack of instability could prove to be a limiting
factor for widespread severe weather. On Sunday night into early
Monday morning, CAA co-located with DPVA and moisture on the back
side of the exiting system could produce a mix of rain showers and
snow showers across portions of north GA, but uncertainty is high
as this is Day 7, so generally keeping this wintry precip capped
at a slight chance and not advertising any accumulations.

Martin

(I guess we could say in the south that uncertainty is always high at Day 7 or Day 1 lol for us! But still good nonetheless that usually conservative FFC is throwing out the possibility ... good luck to all of us!)
 
StormWatch said:
I'd have more concern about the southeastern ridge than a -PNA. Eastern ridging can still occur even with a +PNA. Honestly, I wouldn't be too worried about the -PNA.

There's still plenty of time, that system is still beyond 5 days and things are likely to change. There's no official forecast (yet) for any kind of snow/ice (at least not in Atlanta and metro areas.)

The surface map from the 12z Euro on Pivotal Weather shows a band of snow like the animation above, except for North Georgia (and Atlanta.) Glenn Burns posted an image from the Euro and it shows what that animation shows. I thought there may have been something wrong with the graphics on Pivotal Weather, but I checked the Euro on Weather.us and it shows exactly what it shows on Pivotal Weather - makes no sense.
View attachment 99455
Click to expand...
It appears Glenn and Brian are not singing from the same side of the hymnal.

 
BullCityWx said:
12z Euro had the low NE of ATL(Buford or so). 18z Euro control over Dothan so about 250 miles SW. It could be nothing but if that holds, it’s a significant move southward that would include more folks.View attachment 99460
Click to expand...
I could see that as a possibility for where the low comes out. We have seen it before.
 
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