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Pattern Januworry

NCSNOW said:
GFS fanatsy storm: Massive Ice storm all they way down past macon,Savannah. Snow with sleet, ice on top carolinas, That ice accum was no joke if it ever happened. Lights out for weeks
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Feb 14 redux?
 
The midlands, I20 corridor, and western pee dee regions of SC get crushed with freezing rain.

EDIT: just checked the soundings and it's definitely a ZR sounding with temps at the surface in the mid 20's. That would be crushing.
 
griteater said:
I am such a virgin, this is my first post......."but don't call it a comeback! I've been here for years!" ?



What I mean by that is...the very first post I made on a weather board back in Dec 2007 was on Talkweather where I barged into an ongoing thread and got into a debate with the legend himself, SD, over the ideal placement of western ridging lol, lol...which is ironic given the upcoming pattern.

Anyway, hopefully I can add to the discussion in here and not take away from it or be a distraction.

From a pattern standpoint, we've had a bit of a delay here in early Jan as the Pac Jet extension has trended stronger and farther east on the modeling. The dates I'm watching are Jan 17-18 as this is at the point where the pattern retrogrades off the E Coast a bit, and the + anomalies are at a point along the Rocky Mtn divide. I want to see how this changes over the next week (i.e. whether it moves up in time or is delayed). I don't anticipate a delay, but we'll see.

knmraxW.png



Sexy look here on Jan 19...Aleutian Low with high pressure lined up from Bismark to China

vX4avlu.png
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GRIT IS HERE. Now it’s really winter ? welcome grit, excited to have you over here.
 
SD said:
Playing quite the dangerous game on the gfs. Trough axis starts its retrogression but a -nao builds over top. Miller B ice storm city
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We’re definitely way passed due for an ice storm that is for sure I don’t remember the last time we had a decent one
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
When you have a persistent Baja low good things happen, example : dec 2018 lol
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^ Thanks all for the welcome and kind words, appreciate it!

Cutoff low in Baja / SW states that is kicked east by a northern stream / Gulf of AK wave dropping down isn't an uncommon setup for a winter storm in the SE. Feb 2015, Jan 2011, Jan 1982, early Feb 1979 all had it

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I think it makes sense that we could make an attempt at a period of -NAO. As the Pac jet retracts after Jan 10, the jet will get wavy and slow down in the NE Pac and along with W Coast....and should also do the same in the N Atlantic. Also, we should see some easterly momentum in the high latitudes with the ongoing westerly momentum in the mid-latitudes via the current AAM processes. The strength of the lower stratosphere will fight back though (would be better if it were in a weakened state)

Z5s4cTA.png
 
CaryWx said:
Something about the placement of that LP in the OV juxtaposed to NC doesn't look right for winter weather here.
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It’s a Miller B set up so it’s gonna hand off to a coastal. Where exactly that handoff occurs would determine how much snow before it switches to sleet/ice storm. One thing about that look is that the CAD looks to be quite strong and deep, which would argue for a handoff further south like February 2014. Ultimately we’re just looking for a signal in that time frame right now.
 
lots of potential in this upcoming pattern and retrogression phases
1. Get some SS energy with confluence in the NE US/off the coast and get a Miller B/CAD setup
3D6C43A4-EA89-43D4-B48F-B65F4ECD9BB6.png
2. Get some energy to dig down from the western ridge and given lower heights in the ATL there would be some level of CAA/confluence, get a SS/Miller A setup
A9A62D5B-0C3B-4FF1-A9F3-09A98371F817.png
3. With a TPV in place under the -NAO block, get some S/S energy under this either from the Baja low or down from the PNA ridge
F8BCFB39-509F-4A7A-BDA3-20D59CF1CE7D.pngtons of potential with this pattern
 
Chazwin said:
It’s a Miller B set up so it’s gonna hand off to a coastal. Where exactly that handoff occurs would determine how much snow before it switches to sleet/ice storm. One thing about that look is that the CAD looks to be quite strong and deep, which would argue for a handoff further south like February 2014. Ultimately we’re just looking for a signal in that time frame right now.
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Also another thing to watch for in that type of set up would be development of a mesohigh in the mid-Atlantic that can help reinforce CAD….this is something that wouldn’t be picked up on until short range models, but with the snowpack that will be in place to our north, it certainly is a possibility. In February 2015, many on this board including myself were saved from a crippling ZR event by a mesohigh that formed just to our north. It turned what was headed to be a widespread .50-.75” ice accrual into a 1-2” sleet event with much lower ice.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
lots of potential in this upcoming pattern and retrogression phases
1. Get some SS energy with confluence in the NE US/off the coast and get a Miller B/CAD setup
View attachment 102004
2. Get some energy to dig down from the western ridge and given lower heights in the ATL there would be some level of CAA/confluence, get a SS/Miller A setup
View attachment 102005
3. With a TPV in place under the -NAO block, get some S/S energy under this either from the Baja low or down from the PNA ridge
View attachment 102006tons of potential with this pattern
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1641406241404.gif
 
Why does the cold always retreat when the precipitation starts rolling in? What does it take to have cold move in and stay in place the entire duration of a storm without warming up?
 
Stephenb888 said:
Why does the cold always retreat when the precipitation starts rolling in? What does it take to have cold move in and stay in place the entire duration of a storm without warming up?
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This may sound weird, but we have to work hard to earn a good winter storm in the SE. It's like trying to put together a team that can win the Super Bowl. I'm a Philadelphia Eagles fan even though I've lived in the Charlotte area almost all of my life. It took me 30 years of being a fan before I got to enjoy a Super Bowl win - makes it sweeter in the end
 
Chazwin said:
Also another thing to watch for in that type of set up would be development of a mesohigh in the mid-Atlantic that can help reinforce CAD….this is something that wouldn’t be picked up on until short range models, but with the snowpack that will be in place to our north, it certainly is a possibility. In February 2015, many on this board including myself were saved from a crippling ZR event by a mesohigh that formed just to our north. It turned what was headed to be a widespread .50-.75” ice accrual into a 1-2” sleet event with much lower ice.
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Yea from anecdotal observation, it seems that most of the time CAD NC areas get saved from what could be considered crippling ice effects because precip type trends more IP than ZR as it gets closer to onset. That's why I don't get too concerned about heavy ZR until it's shown within 3 days or so.
 
griteater said:
This may sound weird, but we have to work hard to earn a good winter storm in the SE. It's like trying to put together a team that can win the Super Bowl. I'm a Philadelphia Eagles fan even though I've lived in the Charlotte area almost all of my life. It took me 30 years of being a fan before I got to enjoy a Super Bowl win - makes it sweeter in the end
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Then you have Charlotte and the Carolina panthers….
 
Stephenb888 said:
Why does the cold always retreat when the precipitation starts rolling in? What does it take to have cold move in and stay in place the entire duration of a storm without warming up?
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You gotta start learning a little on here. As been noted any times without perfect timing which rarely happens we need blocking in the northeast to keep the cold air from getting run out by low pressure systems.
Upper Level Lows sometimes work out when there's real cold to tap into but then it's track dependant for us.
Until we get High pressure in the northeast(it's being modeled after the 15th) we are 99% screwed here in the upstate.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
We’re definitely way passed due for an ice storm that is for sure I don’t remember the last time we had a decent one
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Way overdue in most of NC and SC. There is a better chance this year than we have had in a while too I think with this being a LaNina winter.. It has been since Dec 2005 that we had a major icestorm here. It is since Dec 2002 since most of us have seen a really serious icestorm. 2005 was really bad too but in a smaller area just outside of the mountains from northeast GA up through the foothills of NC.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Why does the cold always retreat when the precipitation starts rolling in? What does it take to have cold move in and stay in place the entire duration of a storm without warming up?
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I grew up about 4 hours up the road north from you and even there I can only remember 4 or 5 purely snow events that were big since 1980.
 
Chazwin said:
Also another thing to watch for in that type of set up would be development of a mesohigh in the mid-Atlantic that can help reinforce CAD….this is something that wouldn’t be picked up on until short range models, but with the snowpack that will be in place to our north, it certainly is a possibility. In February 2015, many on this board including myself were saved from a crippling ZR event by a mesohigh that formed just to our north. It turned what was headed to be a widespread .50-.75” ice accrual into a 1-2” sleet event with much lower ice.
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I remember that very well. We were not even supposed to have ZR here, much less any sleet, but around 1 inch of sleet is what we got thankfully. That was going to be all of that ice too with temps around 28 for many of us like you said, but we got that sleet. Northern GA got the ice from it.
 
Oconeexman said:
You gotta start learning a little on here. As been noted any times without perfect timing which rarely happens we need blocking in the northeast to keep the cold air from getting run out by low pressure systems.
Upper Level Lows sometimes work out when there's real cold to tap into but then it's track dependant for us.
Until we get High pressure in the northeast(it's being modeled after the 15th) we are 99% screwed here in the upstate.
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It has been a while since the cold was in place before precip. The result was a nice sleet storm for many of us.
 
JHS said:
Way overdue in most of NC and SC. There is a better chance this year than we have had in a while too I think with this being a LaNina winter.. It has been since Dec 2005 that we had a major icestorm here. It is since Dec 2002 since most of us have seen a really serious icestorm. 2005 was really bad too but in a smaller area just outside of the mountains from northeast GA up through the foothills of NC.
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ATL area had two major icestorms in 2005. Then came February of 2014, which had major impacts for the southern half of ATL metro eastward to Augusta and Columbia. This storm took down the famous Eisenhower tree at Augusta National.

Corrected for details about the tree
 
Was that the storm when everybody got stranded on the interstates?
GaWx said:
ATL area had two major icestorms in 2005. Then came February of 2014, which had major impacts for the southern half of ATL metro eastward to Augusta and Columbia. This storm killed the famous Eisenhower tree at Augusta National.
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