tennessee storm
Member
Least we hope not… time will tell. Whole winter everything been lagging
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Interesting. Maybe that helped to weaken the SER on the 6Z GEFS after day 10 vs earlier runs.
Wow… very warm look on the euro, we’re def gonna torch before any changes lol 
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, this may be noise, but I'm looking for anything!.....but the Aleutian ridge at the very end looked like it was creeping NE toward Alaska, and the heights near the pole were rising. This started to push to a more full CONUS trough, released the cold more into the CONUS, and pushed down the SE ridge. May be nothing, but if that's a future trend that would be great.
It could be completely gone this afternoon but I'm grasping.
SnowNiner
Member
It looks like GEFS has found a strong pulse and wants to move. Euro still looks like a nascar race in phase 7. Maybe by the weekend we'll see the light at the end of the tunnel? Or maybe maybe tonight we'll see the oh no we suck again meme....again.
iGRXY
Member
Either one of these is good for the SE in January.
NoSnowATL
Member
cd2play
Member
Sami is back!!!
SnowNiner
Member
I've always heard the Canadian ensembles were always underrated.
??If we do shake up the pacific, the ridge goes up to the poles, we keep the -NAO, that would certainly be believable in mid-January IMO. IF.
That's really the most frustrating thing about this, we've got ALOT going for us right now and it would only take a few tweaks to make a great pattern for us. But we're literally stuck at the precipice. We only need small push and we'll snowball down the mountain, literally!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've always been a fan of these RMM component diagrams from Dr Schreck, it gives you nice insight into what's driving the RMM MJO signal. The convective anomalies are in the western hemisphere (phase 8), but U200 (upper-level zonal winds) are highly amplified over phase 6. A large component of this U200 is forced by wave breaking from the subtropics. I.e. the subtropics & mid-latitudes still think we're in RMM phase 6, even though the convective signal is in phase 8. Hence, we're gonna be warm thru late month.
OHHHH CANADA!!!
It’s always something. so frustrating
other then the hope of a change in early jan, this is absolutely atrocious 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
What I'm also saying is if we had the exact same mean RMM, but roles were reversed and U200 was leading the MJO into the W hem instead of OLR, we'd have a much different (more favorable) pattern. The RMM MJO index is nice but it really matters what the individual components are doing, esp U200, because that most strongly reflects onto the mid-latitude circulation pattern.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's a similar breakdown but now by longitude. The mean may be in phase 7, but the Pacific + W Hem that we care about still think we're in phase 5 or 6, which usually torch the eastern US.
SnowNiner
Member
What do we need to look for to get the U200 winds "coupled" with the convection? Any signs of that going forward?
cd2play
Member
I know, right. Yet another 3 letter index discovered.
cd2play
Member
Nope.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not until we can shake up the N Pacific storm track. U200 wind is more directly dependent both on convection and the extratropical circulation anomalies than other components of RMM because the extra tropics communicate to the tropics mainly through upper-level perturbations as Rossby Waves (which are strongest near the tropopause) break equatorward and move into the tropics.
NCSNOW
Member
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Exactly. Why not just forecast that (U200) instead of the one folks have been following for the past several years. Obviously it means Dittly Squat. The U200 is what affects the 500mb circulation or longwave patterns downstream.