Pattern Januworry

[GaWx]

Not going to lie, the 18Z GEFS sucks and thus I’m giving it the ole SouthernWx toss because I can.

If we are to believe recent CFS runs, we need to be patient and hopefully we’ll see a much better pattern starting in about 2 1/2 weeks. Hope the MJO starts moving!?Climo says it will eventually.

 

[Stephenb888]

Fitting that winter is starting and we’ve got a nice cold rain here I’m Anderson SC. I’m sure one of many this year.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

LA has a mean this gefs run

 

[LickWx]

LA has a mean this gefs run View attachment 98767

Pretty historic ! Texas now the Peeeein Double U! Peeindouble u had record heat in the summer now cold .

 

[MichaelJ]

Looking at the indices, it is becoming apparent that the only constant across ALL models is a very strongly negative PNA and this generally does not bold well for the SE re: cold and snow. Sure something can possibly happen without it (like a robust stratospheric warming) but that is like wishing Tinkerbell was real!

 

[ATLwxfan]

Looking at the indices, it is becoming apparent that the only constant across ALL models is a very strongly negative PNA and this generally does not bold well for the SE re: cold and snow. Sure something can possibly happen without it (like a robust stratospheric warming) but that is like wishing Tinkerbell was real!

Yep…and we ride the ridge and then it gets cold in March and April. Awesome.


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[Brent]

Subfreezing highs here on January 3rd on the 0z GFS...

Lock it in ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like we’re gonna probably deal with severe wx over any chance of wintry precip soon pretty solid setup on the euro

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wait a minute that’s a nice pattern for overrunning on the EPS ?

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Wait a minute that’s a nice pattern for overrunning on the EPS ?View attachment 98783View attachment 98784View attachment 98785View attachment 98786View attachment 98787

Probably not for us. The Mid Atlantic yes. But it's getting there and maybe we'll be alright just a few days later.

 

[Webberweather53]

I don’t see any reason to be encouraged by anything yet. Seeing cooler surface temp anomalies after 300 hrs is nice and all, but the pattern is unchanged across virtually all ensembles for the entirety of their runs and probably will reflect onto warmer surface anomalies and a stronger SER as verification nears. Until the GOA ridge starts to move on the ensembles, bah humbug.

 

[Webberweather53]

I don’t see any reason to be encouraged by anything yet. Seeing cooler surface temp anomalies after 300 hrs is nice and all, but the pattern is unchanged across virtually all ensembles for the entirety of their runs and probably will reflect onto warmer surface anomalies and a stronger SER as verification nears. Until the GOA ridge starts to move on the ensembles, bah humbug.

Oth, as mentioned in Dec thread, there is a glimmer of hope that the vortex over E Russia is in a better position to create -EPO later in week 2 but I’m not hanging my hat on that just yet

 

[Myfrotho704_]

One thing I notice by early jan is ensembles finally have cold air in the western US and even central US and not just in NW can/PNW, all we need is a shakeup at H5 and it can maybe move east, I really like that GFS evolution tho

 

[Rain Cold]

Pattern change! Well, the model is either wrong and we keep the big Aleutian ridge, OR we go to either a GOA low with a raging Pac jet and say bye bye to all the cold air in Canada or watch that low retrograde to the Aleutians and pump up a western ridge. My guess is the latter, based on the alleged MJO propagation and the fact that the model seems to be moving that way, if you play the animation. It fits with the timing of when a better pattern should theoretically start to emerge. Clock is ticking. 2 weeks.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Pattern change! Well, the model is either wrong and we keep the big Aleutian ridge, OR we go to either a GOA low with a raging Pac jet and say bye bye to all the cold air in Canada or watch that low retrograde to the Aleutians and pump up a western ridge. My guess is the latter, based on the alleged MJO propagation and the fact that the model seems to be moving that way, if you play the animation. It fits with the timing of when a better pattern should theoretically start to emerge. Clock is ticking. 2 weeks.

View attachment 98794

Yep. It'll be worth the wait if we can time it up just right for mid January. As bad as this pattern sucks around Christmas December isn't snowy very much. At least down my way mid Jan thru mid Feb is peak climo. If we only get 2 or 3 weeks I'd rather it be mid January.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

We're still in December so phase 7 isn't great. But there appears to be too much convection around the Maritime continent influencing the pattern regardless of what phase it says we're in. When or if that dies down we may see phase 7 and 8 act as they should in January.

 

[tennessee storm]

We're still in December so phase 7 isn't great. But there appears to be too much convection around the Maritime continent influencing the pattern regardless of what phase it says we're in. When or if that dies down we may see phase 7 and 8 act as they should in January.

There seems be decent chance hearing from experts mjo could creep back to 6 phase … that wouldn’t be good

 

[NoSnowATL]

There seems be decent chance hearing from experts mjo could creep back to 6 phase … that wouldn’t be good

Not going back to 6 from what I’m seeing.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We're still in December so phase 7 isn't great. But there appears to be too much convection around the Maritime continent influencing the pattern regardless of what phase it says we're in. When or if that dies down we may see phase 7 and 8 act as they should in January.

Gefs gets rid of that annoying MC forcing around day 10, finally a positive trend from yesterday

 

[iGRXY]

There seems be decent chance hearing from experts mjo could creep back to 6 phase … that wouldn’t be good

Nothing is showing a push back into phase 6. The worst MJO forecasts have been keeping us in phase 7 which isn't bad in January. But a push to the COD or phase 8 is also a strong possibility.