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Pattern Januworry

For weenie entertainment: 12Z CFS has mainly torch through 1/4 before it gives @Brent and @NorthDFWwx a very strong Arctic plunge 1/5-7, which later results in the SE having modified version 1/7-9 to break the torch. So, be patient, folks! ?

Then the SER returns to dominate again followed by another Arctic plunge into OK/TX 1/13-16, this time along with a major winter storm giving DFW 3-4” and 1-2 feet in much of C and W OK:

6CF03A77-1C5C-497A-A310-58C222DBE251.png

Parts of NC get some ZR 1/12-13. TX/OK never gets warm again but the SER dominates most of the SE 1/11-19. After this, the freezer really hits first in TX/OK 1/19 and then the SE 1/20-22 (keep in mind the CFS 2Ms are often way too cold though over snowcover…come on, 53 BN at DFW lmao).

669D53CE-F5A0-4B6A-8AFF-E5218A6889D9.png

TX/OK get still another major winter storm with DFW getting 9”! Tulsa and DFW have continuous snow-cover 1/13-22+! This time much of the SE also gets major wintry precip 1/19-21 starting with ZR NC CAD area with even SAV later getting some SN on the backend (I’ll believe that when I see it) and @pcbjr being very close! Our golfing poster in AR gets buried!!
63F26314-EAB8-4818-B267-32D751FBBBAB.png

That was one very wild up and down CFS! Ok, back to reality.
 
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GaWx said:
For weenie entertainment: 12Z CFS has mainly torch through 1/4 before it gives @Brent and @NorthDFWwx a very strong Arctic plunge 1/5-7, which later results in the SE having modified version 1/7-9 to break the torch. So, be patient, folks! ?

Then the SER returns to dominate again followed by another Arctic plunge into OK/TX 1/13-16, this time along with a major winter storm giving DFW 3-4” and 1-2 feet in much of C and W OK:

View attachment 98749

Parts of NC get some ZR 1/12-13. TX/OK never gets warm again but the SER dominates most of the SE 1/11-19. After this, the freezer really hits first in TX/OK 1/19 and then the SE 1/20-22 (keep in mind the CFS 2Ms are often way too cold though over snowcover…come on, 53 BN at DFW lmao).

View attachment 98752

TX/OK get still another major winter storm with DFW getting 9”! Tulsa and DFW have continuous snow-cover 1/13-22+! This time much of the SE also gets major wintry precip 1/19/21 starting with ZR NC CAD area with even SAV later getting some SN on the backend (I’ll believe that when I see it) and @pcbjr being very close! Our golfing poster in AR gets buried!!
View attachment 98755

That was one very wild up and down CFS! Ok, back to reality.
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Even though this model is ridiculous, one thing is likely certain & seems right.. It will get colder West of us (South Central US) before it reaches us. So i can see a scenario where us in the Southeast are on the outside looking in once again as places like Texas, Arkansas, Western TN, maybe Northern LA into Northern MS are getting into the cold air. This would likely make us sick watching as we got a wiff the size of Kansas in Feb of this year during the Arctic outbreak. But if blocking persist, the cold dump is going to come. It can't just dump out West forever (i guess it could) but hopefully it eventually makes it to the East.

I think what sucks the most, is that this is a multi step process. And i feel like based off what we see on models, we can't get to that second step to save our lives... The first step with a decent -EPO & -NAO is there (blocking).

All it takes is one storm around here to make an entire Winter. Take it from someone who lives in the Armpit of Hell (Columbia, SC) and hasn't seen appreciatable Winter precip since Feb 2014. It's going to snow again, it's just a matter of when. Take this time to take in knowledge & learn what makes all this come together, i know i have over the years.
 
Robert West said:
Even though this model is ridiculous, one thing is likely certain & seems right.. It will get colder West of us (South Central US) before it reaches us. So i can see a scenario where us in the Southeast are on the outside looking in once again as places like Texas, Arkansas, Western TN, maybe Northern LA into Northern MS are getting into the cold air. This would likely make us sick watching as we got a wiff the size of Kansas in Feb of this year during the Arctic outbreak. But if blocking persist, the cold dump is going to come. It can't just dump out West forever (i guess it could) but hopefully it eventually makes it to the East.

I think what sucks the most, is that this is a multi step process. And i feel like based off what we see on models, we can't get to that second step to save our lives... The first step with a decent -EPO & -NAO is there (blocking).

All it takes is one storm around here to make an entire Winter. Take it from someone who lives in the Armpit of Hell (Columbia, SC) and hasn't seen appreciatable Winter precip since Feb 2014. It's going to snow again, it's just a matter of when. Take this time to take in knowledge & learn what makes all this come together, i know i have over the years.
Click to expand...
This, 100%!! Personally I'm weary of straining to find the cold pattern ahead, thinking I've found it, only to have something go wrong and we're back to where we started, sitting in the warm weather, waiting on the next edition of model run fantasy tease to disappoint us again. But the cold is there on our side of the globe, and all it takes is one week of wintery gusto, and I would be good for the season.
 
Stephenb888 said:
I just wonder if the longer we go without a real big winter storm, the worse it will be when we have one in regards to busted pipes, shutdowns, etc. Kind of like Texas last year.
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All significant winter storms can pose a threat and chaos within the environment, it doesn't necessarily matter how long it's been without a significant winter storm.

Loganelliott99 said:
I

I’m honestly not a firm believer in MJO. If there’s a +PNA I personally don’t think the MJO matters
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The MJO can have little to no influence on the pattern at times. I think the MJO has a much more influence in the Pacific than the Eastern US because of downstream effects. Basically, the effects of the MJO can distinguish gradually downstream as other features interfere causing the MJO become lesser of an influence within distance. But, that only depends on how strong the phase is. The MJO can be in a cold phase, but that may not mean anything for our weather locally. I'm not a total firm believer of the MJO either, it's not an "8 ball."
 
You can already see it cooling down again in the short range. I wonder if we actually get all those 70s that are now being advertised.

12z GFS
1640127337682.png

18z GFS

1640127375740.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
All this West Pacific MJO activity (& associated WWBs west of the dateline) are starting to have a perceptible effect on the thermocline. Notice the subsurface warm anomalies have begun to rapidly increase at depth west of the Int'l dateline. Another few weeks-month of this (as suggested by the EPS and GFS) & it seems like a good bet La Nina will die by the vernal equinox.

View attachment 98717
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Can you link me to a cross section of the equatorial Atlantic?
 
Will Rossman said:
Not going to lie, the 18z GFS gives me some hope. At least it gets the table set for possible widespread southeast cold later on in January.
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Yeah I'm at least mildly interested in what's going on in the pacific after around d5 when we may stop the wave breaking cycle at least temporarily and deamplify the ridge. Not sure though if it's going to be enough to give us much in our region but maybe a short term cool down at best the first week of Jan and we go right back into the same cycle.
 
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