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Pattern Januworry

GaWx said:
Not if one likes it cold.
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I’m pretty sure everyone on this thread Wants snow. I guess having cold air is a start. Maybe we can sneak in a little system to have everyone in this board score
 
The more I’ve looked at the extended today, the more I think a real pattern change is around the proverbial corner (subseasonally speaking) in the N Pacific. Mountain torque events are a critical component to meridionally flux momentum between the tropics and mid-latitudes on subseasonal/week-to-week time scales. The one that’s currently ongoing over E Asia is timed pretty ideally to provide us with a pattern change in the N Pacific during early January. The positive angular momentum anomalies that have been building up in the tropics the last several weeks are probably going to move into the extratropical Pacific, favoring an extended/strong Pacific Jet, a stronger Aleutian low, & less negative &/or positive PNA through mid month



0BAA8019-4DD7-4CB0-897D-632E32AD29EF.png7EE83C9B-46C9-4551-9E1F-9151A4B09FA3.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The more I’ve looked at the extended today, the more I think a real pattern change is around the proverbial corner (subseasonally speaking) in the N Pacific. Mountain torque events are a critical component to meridionally flux momentum between the tropics and mid-latitudes on subseasonal/week-to-week time scales. The one that’s currently ongoing over E Asia is timed pretty ideally to provide us with a pattern change in the N Pacific during early January. The positive angular momentum anomalies that have been building up in the tropics the last several weeks are probably going to move into the extratropical Pacific, favoring an extended/strong Pacific Jet, a stronger Aleutian low, & less negative &/or positive PNA through mid month



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That would be fantastic if it happens. Based on this possibility, do you think much of the SE would get cold enough to have a decent shot at BN for January as a whole? Or is that unrealistic and near normal the best to realistically hope for? I don’t mean just the major CAD regions of the Carolinas that would benefit from wedging more than others areas of the SE.

I’d personally take near normal and be quite content.
 
Just personal opinion. Gfs just had an unrealistic run. I think the Canadian has a better handle on this. 2nd or 3rd week has a better chance of temps returning to around slightly below average. A84A8C44-769D-4A5D-8396-0F91B93D383B.png
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Just personal opinion. Gfs just had an unrealistic run. I think the Canadian has a better handle on this. 2nd or 3rd week has a better chance of temps returning to around slightly below average View attachment 99214
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Your personal opinion is to pick whatever model shows the warmth.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Just personal opinion. Gfs just had an unrealistic run. I think the Canadian has a better handle on this. 2nd or 3rd week has a better chance of temps returning to around slightly below average. View attachment 99214
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You could find something wrong with a million dollars. My advice is to find another hobby. Something that makes you happy.
 
GaWx said:
That would be fantastic if it happens. Based on this possibility, do you think much of the SE would get cold enough to have a decent shot at BN for January as a whole? Or is that unrealistic and near normal the best to realistically hope for? I don’t mean just the major CAD regions of the Carolinas that would benefit from wedging more than others areas of the SE.

I’d personally take near normal and be quite content.
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I’m honestly not as concerned about this as I am the pattern getting favorable enough for a significant snow/ice storm in the southern us. It’s probably best to go with seasonably warm temps and assume January is the coldest of met winter. I suspect February tries to torch us again
 
Euro is good hot to cold to hot to major cold coming out of Montana who knows. Like wet during the hot and dry during the cold. Gonna need some sustained cold maybe it comes last few days of Jan
 
Weenie time, boys and girls:

18Z CFS has Mack to Chicago 7-8 BN in January! And Montana guy, you may need to move ASAP if this is anywhere close to realistic with 15 BN?! It probably is grossly overdone but wow if not!

There’s a sharp gradient with NYC -4, DFW and RDU near normal, and ATL +2 even with the SE being quite cold most of 1/15-25.
 
it’s funny reading the same people saying the GFS isn’t realistic with its cold push. You get cross polar flow and any sim lance of a +PNA and that solution is HIGHLY likely in a La Niña. In fact that’s one of the biggest worries if you’re wanting snow in the south. We have to have a balance between getting enough cold air in first and to not crush any wave sliding underneath all that cold air. Those deep cold anomalies have shown to be a mirage in the long range but this is showing up under day 10 now.
 
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