We figured since El Nino didn't work out for us, we would give La Nina a try. I guess now we have to hope for neutral ENSO?Is there anyway to relax the -pna to allow the big cold to head se? I'm personally not a big fan of laniña to be honest
We figured since El Nino didn't work out for us, we would give La Nina a try. I guess now we have to hope for neutral ENSO?Is there anyway to relax the -pna to allow the big cold to head se? I'm personally not a big fan of laniña to be honest
I'll be satisfied w/ the Euro Control. As well as member 40 & 22
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The big story then will be the drought in the Carolinas.One silver lining is this will go a long way to help the western drought.
Total Precip.
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And a lot of that coming as snow fall for their reservoirs in the spring and summer.
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Thank god we’re getting the bad trends now .. eventually we will get good trends but this is putting a damper on pattern changing the 27-3rd .. another classic kicking of the can but I’d rather kick it in late December than late February lol
"Patience my friend"
This is whamby-level nonsense.
Learn to take a little humor EricAnd you don't make Whamby posts in here (like this response)? Last I checked you had to remove on yourself the other day.
Even though this model is ridiculous, one thing is likely certain & seems right.. It will get colder West of us (South Central US) before it reaches us. So i can see a scenario where us in the Southeast are on the outside looking in once again as places like Texas, Arkansas, Western TN, maybe Northern LA into Northern MS are getting into the cold air. This would likely make us sick watching as we got a wiff the size of Kansas in Feb of this year during the Arctic outbreak. But if blocking persist, the cold dump is going to come. It can't just dump out West forever (i guess it could) but hopefully it eventually makes it to the East.For weenie entertainment: 12Z CFS has mainly torch through 1/4 before it gives @Brent and @NorthDFWwx a very strong Arctic plunge 1/5-7, which later results in the SE having modified version 1/7-9 to break the torch. So, be patient, folks! ?
Then the SER returns to dominate again followed by another Arctic plunge into OK/TX 1/13-16, this time along with a major winter storm giving DFW 3-4” and 1-2 feet in much of C and W OK:
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Parts of NC get some ZR 1/12-13. TX/OK never gets warm again but the SER dominates most of the SE 1/11-19. After this, the freezer really hits first in TX/OK 1/19 and then the SE 1/20-22 (keep in mind the CFS 2Ms are often way too cold though over snowcover…come on, 53 BN at DFW lmao).
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TX/OK get still another major winter storm with DFW getting 9”! Tulsa and DFW have continuous snow-cover 1/13-22+! This time much of the SE also gets major wintry precip 1/19/21 starting with ZR NC CAD area with even SAV later getting some SN on the backend (I’ll believe that when I see it) and @pcbjr being very close! Our golfing poster in AR gets buried!!
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That was one very wild up and down CFS! Ok, back to reality.
This, 100%!! Personally I'm weary of straining to find the cold pattern ahead, thinking I've found it, only to have something go wrong and we're back to where we started, sitting in the warm weather, waiting on the next edition of model run fantasy tease to disappoint us again. But the cold is there on our side of the globe, and all it takes is one week of wintery gusto, and I would be good for the season.Even though this model is ridiculous, one thing is likely certain & seems right.. It will get colder West of us (South Central US) before it reaches us. So i can see a scenario where us in the Southeast are on the outside looking in once again as places like Texas, Arkansas, Western TN, maybe Northern LA into Northern MS are getting into the cold air. This would likely make us sick watching as we got a wiff the size of Kansas in Feb of this year during the Arctic outbreak. But if blocking persist, the cold dump is going to come. It can't just dump out West forever (i guess it could) but hopefully it eventually makes it to the East.
I think what sucks the most, is that this is a multi step process. And i feel like based off what we see on models, we can't get to that second step to save our lives... The first step with a decent -EPO & -NAO is there (blocking).
All it takes is one storm around here to make an entire Winter. Take it from someone who lives in the Armpit of Hell (Columbia, SC) and hasn't seen appreciatable Winter precip since Feb 2014. It's going to snow again, it's just a matter of when. Take this time to take in knowledge & learn what makes all this come together, i know i have over the years.
I just wonder if the longer we go without a real big winter storm, the worse it will be when we have one in regards to busted pipes, shutdowns, etc. Kind of like Texas last year.
I
I’m honestly not a firm believer in MJO. If there’s a +PNA I personally don’t think the MJO matters
Can you link me to a cross section of the equatorial Atlantic?All this West Pacific MJO activity (& associated WWBs west of the dateline) are starting to have a perceptible effect on the thermocline. Notice the subsurface warm anomalies have begun to rapidly increase at depth west of the Int'l dateline. Another few weeks-month of this (as suggested by the EPS and GFS) & it seems like a good bet La Nina will die by the vernal equinox.
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Enjoy it. 0z be taking it backNot going to lie, the 18z GFS gives me some hope. At least it gets the table set for possible widespread southeast cold later on in January.
Not going to lie, the 18z GFS gives me some hope. At least it gets the table set for possible widespread southeast cold later on in January.