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Pattern Januworry

Fwiw, the latest available daily PNA value from NOAA ESRL as of December 20th (-466.45) is inside the top 1% (20th most -PNA of 2,264 total days) vs all December days since 1948 w/ standardized value of ~ -2.3 sigma. This is also the strongest December -PNA we've seen since 2008.

This royally sucks.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/daily/PNA/
 
MichaelJ said:
Looking at the indices, it is becoming apparent that the only constant across ALL models is a very strongly negative PNA and this generally does not bold well for the SE re: cold and snow. Sure something can possibly happen without it (like a robust stratospheric warming) but that is like wishing Tinkerbell was real!
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This shows how the PNA should always be at the top of TC wishlist. It dictates more than anything the winter wx opportunities down here in the SE, Not the Atlantic. Allthough obviously its nice to have it cooperate. Need the Cold 1st and foremost.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not until we can shake up the N Pacific storm track. U200 wind is more directly dependent both on convection and the extratropical circulation anomalies than other components of RMM because the extra tropics communicate to the tropics mainly through upper-level perturbations as Rossby Waves (which are strongest near the tropopause) break equatorward and move into the tropics.
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Thank you. At least we understand now why Phase 7 in January is good for cold but isn't shown to be in the models. We're not "really" in phase 7 like we had a nino that was acting like a nina a couple years back. Even when we think we're winning, we're losing.

Well, we're in fake phase 8 now and real phase 6. Hopefully in January, we'll move on to fake phase 1 and real phase 7.....which will be good in January for the SE? And maybe that gives us the shake up we need. Lol. Oh no, I've gone cross-eyed. ?‍♂️?‍♂️
 
SnowNiner said:
Thank you. At least we understand now why Phase 7 in January is good for cold but isn't shown to be in the models. We're not "really" in phase 7 like we had a nino that was acting like a nina a couple years back. Even when we think we're winning, we're losing.

Well, we're in fake phase 8 now and real phase 6. Hopefully in January, we'll move on to fake phase 1 and real phase 7.....which will be good in January for the SE? And maybe that gives us the shake up we need. Lol. Oh no, I've gone cross-eyed. ?‍♂️?‍♂️
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There's lots of nuances involved w/ every index and a multitude of ways to get the same MJO value, but how we get to that can matter a lot in certain cases like this. I might ask Dr Schreck if he has time series of those individual RMM components for U200, U850, & OLR.
 
NCSNOW said:
This shows how the PNA should always be at the top of TC wishlist. It dictates more than anything the winter wx opportunities down here in the SE, Not the Atlantic. Allthough obviously its nice to have it cooperate. Need the Cold 1st and foremost.
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Generally, I agree with that. But in this case I think we could really win without it. We just need it to not be so positively tilted and strong that it tucks all the cold snugly in the west coast. If we could just weaken it, push the ridge/heights NE and tap the polar air up there into the central states, with a good -NAO block we could easily score without a +PNA. Kinda like 09-11 I believe. The cold just needs to get east. The -NAO would do the rest IMO.
 
Canadian and Euro are several days quicker getting seasonal air back in here/ pattern change. right as we start new year. GFS has it 1/4 to 1/5 way slower. Then theres the CFS that has this New Years Eve. Canadian even paints some pink on the border counties NC/VA 12/31. That was 0z news . See how story unfolds in regards to timing at 12z. Course should be using ens instead of Ops. But oh well.

prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
Current running GFS I think is a perfect example of how the cold air can eventually bleed East. While the Jet sags, areas of overrunning will follow allowing for Winter weather to our NW to start off. Shows the pattern change off just one op run.
 
Yeah, you would think with this look (with dew points falling into the teens in NC) that good things would happen. But no....

Day 10:
aaaa1.jpg
 
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