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Pattern Januworry

FallsLake said:
Yeah, you would think with this look (with dew points falling into the teens in NC) that good things would happen. But no....

Day 10:
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At the end of the day this being 10 days out is a great looks .. many things can change with regard to position of storm strength and position of high pressure .. we don’t want a storm to show up over us 10 days out cause more than likely it won’t end up there at verification time .. looks great to me
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
At the end of the day this being 10 days out is a great looks .. many things can change with regard to position of storm strength and position of high pressure .. we don’t want a storm to show up over us 10 days out cause more than likely it won’t end up there at verification time .. looks great to me
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There’s no gefs support at all
 
Have to admit, while I was generally on the right track several weeks ago about us getting a -EPO and -NAO late in the month of Dec and about us see a classic nina look for a while in late Dec, w/ cold getting dumped first into the west then Great Plains, I was definitely not expecting us to pull out the strongest Dec -PNA in 13 years or for this pattern to be as persistent as it’s forecast to be into early January. That expectation/forecast I had for something decent in early-mid January is beginning to slip away (hopefully that doesn’t continue). I figured back in early Dec, with a La Niña and easterly QBO, the pattern would be slower than expected to change because the MJO would slow down in the West Pacific, but this is undoubtedly much slower than even I thought and I’m trying to figure out why. Glad at least I wasn’t like Bamwx or others and forecasted things to flip around Dec 20th ?
 
NCSNOW said:
This shows how the PNA should always be at the top of TC wishlist. It dictates more than anything the winter wx opportunities down here in the SE, Not the Atlantic. Allthough obviously its nice to have it cooperate. Need the Cold 1st and foremost.
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NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. The reason behind this is that the NAO directly impacts the large scale atmospheric pattern over the eastern U.S. on a daily timescale, whereas the ENSO pattern indirectly effects the eastern U.S. atmospheric pattern by altering global circulations, and does so on monthly to seasonal timescales.

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Christmas tree farm just outside of Boone, North Carolina. Photo by NC State University Communications. From The Mountains To The Outer Banks The North Carolina State Climate Office serves as the primary scientific extension resource for weather and climate science for the state of North...
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yep. It'll be worth the wait if we can time it up just right for mid January. As bad as this pattern sucks around Christmas December isn't snowy very much. At least down my way mid Jan thru mid Feb is peak climo. If we only get 2 or 3 weeks I'd rather it be mid January.
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It’s pretty much peek climo for most of us. I haven’t seen a flake or even so much as a sleet pellet and most likely won’t this December. It will be the first time in at least 3-4 years that I got No wintery precip in November and December.
 
olhausen said:
It’s pretty much peek climo for most of us. I haven’t seen a flake or even so much as a sleet pellet and most likely won’t this December. It will be the first time in at least 3-4 years that I got No wintery precip in November and December.
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I’d say our peak climb for middle tn is mid January-late Jan. Not there yet but we are approaching it. We can still score in Feb and even early March. But our odds start going down as we get on the backside of Feb. I still think the western parts of the mid-south and upper south have a shot at winter weather in January.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
At the end of the day this being 10 days out is a great looks .. many things can change with regard to position of storm strength and position of high pressure .. we don’t want a storm to show up over us 10 days out cause more than likely it won’t end up there at verification time .. looks great to me
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I'd rather have nothing showing or rain and it turn into something instead of it showing snow 10 days out only for it to go poof or turn to rain.
 
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