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Pattern Januworry

snowvol said:
I’d say our peak climb for middle tn is mid January-late Jan. Not there yet but we are approaching it. We can still score in Feb and even early March. But our odds start going down as we get on the backside of Feb. I still think the western parts of the mid-south and upper south have a shot at winter weather in January.
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Wouldn’t be shocked if we get a march snow this winter. It’s been a few years now since we’ve had a 2 plus inch snow in march. I’m big believer in odds and averages and I believe we are due for a march miracle!!
 
The NPR is likely not going to move anywhere due to above normal SSTs across the North Pacific. As you can see between the SSTs and the 500mb heights, the above normal SSTs corresponds with the NPR. A +PNA is not likely through early January either.
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StormWatch said:
The NPR is likely not going to move anywhere due to above normal SSTs across the North Pacific. As you can see between the SSTs and the 500mb heights, the above normal SSTs corresponds with the NPR. A +PNA is not likely through early January either.
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The SSTs are mostly a response to atmospheric forcing and on these timescales outside the tropics, their contribution to the GOA ridge is pretty small/minimal. The atmosphere usually leads SSTs in the extratropics
 
Chazwin said:
Might as well try some new way to get cold. We sure can find plenty of ways to get warm
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Right now if we did anything substantial to move the GOA ridge in just about any direction, some substantial cold air would spill out of the western us. We just need to be decisive in how this is done. A super amped high latitude block/classic -EPO/WPO that quickly goes into the Arctic and/or suppression from a legit +EPO would also play in our favor here. Anything in between and we continue to stay mild/torchy. Just about anything but maintaining current status quo going forward is beneficial
 
Webberweather53 said:
Right now if we did anything substantial to move the GOA ridge in just about any direction, some substantial cold air would spill out of the western us. We just need to be decisive in how this is done. A super amped high latitude block/classic -EPO/WPO that quickly goes into the Arctic and/or suppression from a legit +EPO would also play in our favor here. Anything in between and we continue to stay mild/torchy. Just about anything but maintaining current status quo going forward is beneficial
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That’s what is so frustrating right now. A pattern change could occur very quickly if it would just start.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Right now if we did anything substantial to move the GOA ridge in just about any direction, some substantial cold air would spill out of the western us. We just need to be decisive in how this is done. A super amped high latitude block/classic -EPO/WPO that quickly goes into the Arctic and/or suppression from a legit +EPO would also play in our favor here. Anything in between and we continue to stay mild/torchy. Just about anything but maintaining current status quo going forward is beneficial
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Not often you hear a +EPO could be a reason we significantly cool off but that’s seemingly what the pattern was this past November, sometimes to just need a boot/faster flow 1454DDE7-1FD2-4E47-88E8-7884005D5A7D.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not often you hear a +EPO could be a reason we significantly cool off but that’s seemingly what the pattern was this past November, sometimes to just need a boot/faster flow View attachment 98840
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With a west-based-NAO and cold air already in place to our west and north, we just need to kick it out of there.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not often you hear a +EPO could be a reason we significantly cool off but that’s seemingly what the pattern was this past November, sometimes to just need a boot/faster flow View attachment 98840
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Obviously it’s all hypothetical now, but would you still see a fast flow like we saw in November if there was a -NAO?
 
We just can’t have good things tho because there’s a unlimited dump of energy from the portal in NW Canada ready to dive down 846774F1-1097-4637-B4D8-18F3E0DC5869.png
 
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