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Pattern Januworry

Dewpoint Dan said:
Wouldn't it be even more difficult to get snow covered roads after Feb 10 due to a much higher sun angle ?
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cd2play said:
It's the other way around. Sun angle actually provides lift for convection, hence heavier snow showers, more accumulation.
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Over the holiday weekend, did we all decide that we're just going to come in this thread and make stuff up this week?
 
If you guys want to discuss sun angle, how cold it needs to be to see snow accumulate, or whatever trivial thing you want to about snow accumulations please feel free to go to whamby with it. 2 recent examples that prove that snow can stick to roads and/or stick to the ground after Feb 15th or a torch month are Feb 2015 and March 2018 imby and I'm sure others have examples as well. Thanks
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I would say due to the “heat wave” this week any chances of ice would be a self limiting process with roads being fine well into February. For snow, we can still get the grass covered but snow covered roads are gonna be a difficult task until at least Feb10 or after.
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Now you know this is fictional. If it snows heavily enough, it will stick to the ground and roadways. And if we have a week of cold weather, it will cool the ground nicely. There isn't a magma chamber sitting underneath us.

Dewpoint Dan said:
Wouldn't it be even more difficult to get snow covered roads after Feb 10 due to a much higher sun angle ?
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I'm surprised this post hasn't mysteriously been deleted yet.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Now you know this is fictional. If it snows heavily enough, it will stick to the ground and roadways. And if we have a week of cold weather, it will cool the ground nicely. There isn't a magma chamber sitting underneath us.



I'm surprised this post hasn't mysteriously been deleted yet.
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Thank you!!! I watched 2.5 inches of snow cover the roads in Wingate, including US 74 on 4/2/2019… 18 hours after highs had been near 70 for a week, and of course early April has a much higher sun angle than January.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Absolute paste bomb for the mountains there. That’s the best run I’ve seen this season for NW flow
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Now that is definitely something to watch. Verbatim it’s moving fast and not spinning a lot of moisture back in after the front pushes through but that could change I guess.
 
Cabin search is activated. Man what a run and look for them if that verified.
 
This la nina is killing us. Remember the past years where we would get a constant +PNA and couldn't buy a negative NAO. During those times we would still score a storm or two; and at least see a cold weather pattern. Right now, the PNA looks to stay negative for the foreseeable future. Trough stays out west and the SER stays in the SE.
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FallsLake said:
This la nina is killing us. Remember the past years where we would get a constant +PNA and couldn't buy a negative NAO. During those times we would still score a storm or two; and at least see a cold weather pattern. Right now, the PNA looks to stay negative for the foreseeable future. Trough stays out west and the SER stays in the SE.
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As Michael Clark at BAMWx said in this morning’s video that was posted here, the SER is likely going to be in play for the S and E US for the foreseeable future as it gets colder in the Midwest. How much it will resist the cold is the big question. If it gives way enough, we might get some decent cold dominating at times (just as looks to be the case the first half of next week). He showed storm tracks in the Ohio Valley based on the SER not giving way. But even with that, I’d think Carolina (and maybe N GA) CAD regions could get lucky with some ZR. A classic Miller A Gulf snow storm type track doesn’t appear likely as long as the SER fights though.

At the very least, this could mean some generous rain for the upper SE where it is badly needed as it does look stormy due to the battle of the airmasses.

Maybe once we get to MJO phase 8 the SER will give way more.

Edited: corrected for cold first half of next week, not latter half.
 
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SD said:
If you guys want to discuss sun angle, how cold it needs to be to see snow accumulate, or whatever trivial thing you want to about snow accumulations please feel free to go to whamby with it. 2 recent examples that prove that snow can stick to roads and/or stick to the ground after Feb 15th or a torch month are Feb 2015 and March 2018 imby and I'm sure others have examples as well. Thanks
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I think folks are trying to be funny on here. Hopefully the later suites get us excited and all of today's nonsense will vanish quickly.
 
GaWx said:
As Michael Clark at BAMWx said in this morning’s video that was posted here, the SER is likely going to be in play for the S and E US for the foreseeable future as it gets colder in the Midwest. How much it will resist the cold is the big question. If it gives way enough, we might get some decent cold dominating at times (just as looks to be the case the latter half of next week). He showed storm tracks in the Ohio Valley based on the SER not giving way. But even with that, I’d think Carolina (and maybe N GA) CAD regions could get lucky with some ZR. A classic Miller A Gulf snow storm type track doesn’t appear likely as long as the SER fights though.
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I suspect we see an Apps runner similar to last February at some point this winter, giving middle and west TN ice or snow.
 
GaWx said:
As Michael Clark at BAMWx said in this morning’s video that was posted here, the SER is likely going to be in play for the S and E US for the foreseeable future as it gets colder in the Midwest. How much it will resist the cold is the big question. If it gives way enough, we might get some decent cold dominating at times (just as looks to be the case the latter half of next week). He showed storm tracks in the Ohio Valley based on the SER not giving way. But even with that, I’d think Carolina (and maybe N GA) CAD regions could get lucky with some ZR. A classic Miller A Gulf snow storm type track doesn’t appear likely as long as the SER fights though.
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Yeah, I'm not giving up. That's a lot of cold air to our NW. We just need a good CAD setup. Don't think miller A type storms are going to be available --> except maybe if we do get that mid-winter (short term) flip or an early March miracle when the overall pattern starts relaxing.
 
Poimen said:
What is it about the upcoming pattern that looks good to you that would support a genuinely cold and snowy pattern in the SE? What evidence is there to conclude that such a pattern will actually materialize beyond a brief cold shot?
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This has shown up for 2 runs in a row for this upcoming Sunday so there’s that.
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There’s no doubt change is coming at least away from this god awful record setting warmth day in and day out. Weather or not it will stay for a while is obviously still up in the air. Either way the major warmth looks to be coming to an end starting this Sunday.
 
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