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Pattern Winter 2020/2021 Model Archive

00z Euro 2/4
Deep South ZR!

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

I like cold dont get me wrong but big HP like that in the past has lead to suppression so well see on a funny note my Farmers Almanac for 11th-15th says snow showers in the Carolinas blizzard conditions in the NE wonder what there algorithm is? Would probably contribute to CAD. IDK about TN
southernwx.com
ecmwf-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1612396800-1613109600-1613260800-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-3260800.pngecmwf-deterministic-se-frzr_total-3260800.png
 
12z Euro 2/4
The largest Ice storm that I have seen on a model!

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

1045 mb is a pretty good mean for a high pressure 8-9 days out. 1045 is absurd for a mean that far out. Once you account for dispersion you probably are talking about a 1055 coming down out of Canada. It's the kind of high that can make it snow on the Gulf coast & in Florida.
southernwx.com
ecmwf-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1612440000-1613088000-1613260800-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-se-snow_72hr-3304000.pngecmwf-deterministic-carolinas-snow_72hr-3304000.pngecmwf-deterministic-se-frzr_total-3304000.png
 
18z GFS 2/5
Major snow across NC (1/2)

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

I would like to see NAM pick up Sundays system before opening a thread. Because the NAM should do well with that event Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The same NAM that didn't have snow for a good part of NC last week until about hour 0?
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1612548000-1613412000-1613520000-40.gif
System (2/2)
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1612548000-1613584800-1613779200-40.gifgfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_kuchera-3930400.pnggfs-deterministic-nc-total_snow_kuchera-3930400.pnggfs-deterministic-nc-frzr_total-3930400.pnggfs-deterministic-nc-sleet_total-3930400.png
 
18z GFS 2/19

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

She's a beaut Clark. Ideally, to give the board the biggest hit possible, instead of the center of the vortex being on the north shore of Lake Superior, get it down to around Montreal or north-central New England, and then we're really talking. Looks like we've got a ways to go then. I know...
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-nc-instant_ptype-1613757600-1614319200-1614394800-40.gifgfs-deterministic-nc-total_snow_kuchera-4394800.pnggfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-4330000.pnggfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4330000.png
 
00z Euro 2/27
Close to a large storm, yet so far.

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

One thing I find problematic is how models are so close to putting a rex block in the pacific and getting us stuck in with a EC trough, so close to it ??
southernwx.com
ecmwf-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1614384000-1615032000-1615140000-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-5118400.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5032000.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-5032000.png
 
06z Parallel GFS 2/27
Big dog across much of the ESE!

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

One thing I find problematic is how models are so close to putting a rex block in the pacific and getting us stuck in with a EC trough, so close to it ??
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-para-carolinas-instant_ptype-1614405600-1615021200-1615140000-40.gifgfs-deterministic-para-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-5140000.png
 
12z GFS 2/27
Meh Setup

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

I always have understood that the deeper we go into March, the less impact MJO has All eight phases mean no snow for us, so I don’t pay much attention to it, anyways.
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-carolinas-instant_ptype-1614427200-1615042800-1615129200-40.gifgfs-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-5161600.png
 
12z Para 2/27
Even bigger storm! February 2004 Redux!

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

OTOH, 0Z CMC joins Icon/Euro with a ZR threat as it actually has some in WNC 3/8. Of course, it is an often too cold model. But this airmass origin is extremely cold.
southernwx.com
ezgif-7-d60627dee4e0.gifgfs-deterministic-para-carolinas-total_snow_kuchera-5215600.png

 
12z Euro 2/27
Coastal system.

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

I personally struggle with the idea we want to get warm too quickly. You who love warm/hot weather get 7-8 months of it with very few, if any breaks in it. Cloudy days are the norm this winter but once we get to April, it is pretty much never ending sunny and hot days until late October (barring...
southernwx.com
ecmwf-deterministic-carolinas-instant_ptype-1614427200-1615032000-1615118400-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-5140000.png
 
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