• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Dang! Model cycle difference on weathermodels? It must be a commercial feature because I’m not seeing that in my available parameters. That would make comparing runs much easier lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ryan Maue (weathermodels.com)is actually affiliated with them so, that’s probably why.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
e8d6da15273156f3841fc4d08ae28843.jpg


My new favorite follow on Twitter, way better then JB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Interesting...EPS delta looks like the GEFS mean


B11607CA-6650-4740-9CAA-FA411A666DC1.png2C21CD7B-91CD-40D6-86D5-98F19A891913.jpeg
 
I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:

The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.

t_state__v_yearavg__ilabel_yes__geo_ugc__drawc_yes__year_1986__year2_2019__sdate_2019-01-01 00...png

t_state__v_yearavg__ilabel_yes__geo_ugc__drawc_yes__year_1986__year2_2019__sdate_2019-01-01 00...png

t_state__v_yearavg__ilabel_yes__geo_ugc__drawc_yes__year_1986__year2_2019__sdate_2019-01-01 00...png

t_state__v_yearavg__ilabel_yes__geo_ugc__drawc_yes__year_1986__year2_2019__sdate_2019-01-01 00...png
 
I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:

The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.

View attachment 26261

View attachment 26259

View attachment 26260

View attachment 26258
Webb,
Thanks for not including N FL ... LOL ... ;)
Phil
 
I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:

The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.

View attachment 26261

View attachment 26259

View attachment 26260

View attachment 26258
Very cool
 
The NC Climate Office released their winter outlook. The summary reads

With all things considered, this winter will probably look like past ENSO-neutral years and even how the past two months have played out within the atmosphere: with lots of variability!

This means seeing some warm and cool periods, some wet and dry ones, and probably even some snow, although predicting when, where, and how much is impossible to tell at this point.

Overall, our wintertime average temperatures are more likely to be near- or above-normal than below normal, but we don't expect warm weather will rule the entire season. It certainly hasn't this fall!


https://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=305
 
I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/

Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:

The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.

View attachment 26261
Criteria snowfall was recently changed a few years ago for northern foothills can be seen. Wish they wouldn’t have done that it skews everything. Apples to oranges.
 
With all the unknowns coming up for December into January, that's the one thing I'm absolutely sure of in my mind, the strat warming stuff will mean nothing for our winter; at least when it means something.
The bloom is definitely off as far as ssw, SAI, snd JB winter forecasts
 
The bloom is definitely off as far as ssw, SAI, snd JB winter forecasts
I'm probably a bit biased because I lived in a location that has benefited greatly in the past from a SSW (Feb 2010 in the MA) even if it doesn't directly produce snow in the south, if it can do anything to keep from torching or lower temperatures at all for a period during winter that's a positive impact to me.
 
I'm probably a bit biased because I lived in a location that has benefited greatly in the past from a SSW (Feb 2010 in the MA) even if it doesn't directly produce snow in the south, if it can do anything to keep from torching or lower temperatures at all for a period during winter that's a positive impact to me.
No snow to go with cold. Bring me torch any day...
 
Even if the GEFS is over doing the EPO and troughiness in the east it's still a good sign to see a Aleutian low with -EPO. Kind of what I was hoping for to start winter off...regardless of the NAO.

I sure am hoping he EPS gets on board, even if muted somewhat.

download.png
 
I found this chart that gives the largest single snowfall for Raleigh each year, going back to 1945. I'd consider anything 3 inches or more decent, and anything 6 or more a big storm.

The 80s were totally awesome. 7 out of 10 years had what I would call decent to big snow storms for the area. 4 of those storms had over 6 inches.

The 90s sucked! One good storm in 96, and 4 years that only had a trace.

I guess the Jan 25, 2000 Carolina Crusher was making up for how bad the 90s were. Besides that, the rest of the 2000s had one big storm, and a couple of decent ones.

This decade was similar to the 2000s, but without a monster storm like the Crusher. Two big storms in 2010 and 2018, and a couple of decent ones in the middle in 2014 and 2015.

We have next month to see if we can get a good storm in 2019. Hope this coming decade we can get back to how the 80s were. It's been 30 years, so maybe it's time.

Here's the link to the chart.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php
 
I found this chart that gives the largest single snowfall for Raleigh each year, going back to 1945. I'd consider anything 3 inches or more decent, and anything 6 or more a big storm.

The 80s were totally awesome. 7 out of 10 years had what I would call decent to big snow storms for the area. 4 of those storms had over 6 inches.

The 90s sucked! One good storm in 96, and 4 years that only had a trace.

I guess the Jan 25, 2000 Carolina Crusher was making up for how bad the 90s were. Besides that, the rest of the 2000s had one big storm, and a couple of decent ones.

This decade was similar to the 2000s, but without a monster storm like the Crusher. Two big storms in 2010 and 2018, and a couple of decent ones in the middle in 2014 and 2015.

We have next month to see if we can get a good storm in 2019. Hope this coming decade we can get back to how the 80s were. It's been 30 years, so maybe it's time.

Here's the link to the chart.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php
It's crazy that some of the best winter storms for the Deep South were RDU shaft jobs. I think RDU only got about an inch with the 1993 Storm of the Century. RDU also got mostly ZR from the January 2011 storm with very little snow, and the December 8-9 event in 2017 was almost all rain.
 
Back
Top