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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

CADEffect said:
I will have to start to watch the QBO more closely in the coming years. As Rain Cold mention he’s been watching it for 5-10 years and has more of an opinion then I.


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DT definitely gives the QBO a good bit of weight when doing his forecast. Guess we will see how much of a factor it becomes this winter.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd bank on above average overall for the entire winter, either a few cold blasts and maybe 1 or 2 events best for the upper SE. And maybe a CAD event or 2. Probably going to disappoint this winter again so don't get excited.
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That's how it always goes. Idk how 2-4 events is a disappointment (although i don't live in the especially snow starved areas of the SE, so who am i to talk)
 
I really couldn’t care less about snow right now! Get the El Niño cranking, bring me lots of cold and damp rain , to replenish ground water and save the trees and landscapes!
 
BAMWXs forecast is basically my feelings on how winter will be, in my opinion the S.E and Upper South will probably be a lot closer to average overall, I would say that we will probably be within two degrees of average whether its AN or BN. The mountains should do well off of clippers and NW flow events, the foothills and Northern Piedmont should continue to do well with snow events as they have in the past few years.

And finally I think we are way overdue for another major ice event, it may or may not happen but we are overdue for it.
 
“High pressure coming in 1mb stronger. Could have
huge implications down stream.”

“I don’t understand all the negativity. If you think it’s going to rain then why are you here?”

“Our wave hasn’t even been sampled yet.”

“It’s really not a Miller B, it’s a Miller A/B hybrid. It could work.”

“Oh well, even if this one doesn’t work out, I’m really focusing on the week of *insert long range date*.”

“Guys relax, peak snow climo Isn’t until *insert made up date*.”

“I’ve seen worse setups that worked out. I’m not throwing in the towel until *pick random day of the week*.”
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
“High pressure coming in 1mb stronger. Could have
huge implications down stream.”

“I don’t understand all the negativity. If you think it’s going to rain then why are you here?”

“Our wave hasn’t even been sampled yet.”

“It’s really not a Miller B, it’s a Miller A/B hybrid. It could work.”

“Oh well, even if this one doesn’t work out, I’m really focusing on the week of *insert long range date*.”

“Guys relax, peak snow climo Isn’t until *insert made up date*.”

“I’ve seen worse setups that worked out. I’m not throwing in the towel until *pick random day of the week*.”
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“High pressure coming in 1mb stronger. Could have
huge implications down stream is my favorite. I think I read this statement 837 times last winter.
 
Rain Cold said:
If you're banking on 1 mb to make or break your winter storm, then you're in sad shape. Might as well make sure you know where the umbrella is.
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Hey there has to be a transition line somewhere and 1mb could move it 50 yrds. 50 yrds could make or break some of our storms for our backyards and that's all that matters. Every man, woman, child for themselves in SE winters
 
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More Qbo analogs support a cool winter for the East.

B9A13BDF-8120-4246-8B4B-580B2F28E13C.png


Here is 95-96 and 02-03 temps
BB676CE1-71B0-44B1-8789-28DFBED4B1E4.png350A82CA-C58B-44FB-9196-B15E51A92228.png


95-96 was a Niña winter but here is the Oct 2002 SST vs current

BC7DE2CF-1456-4FEB-9920-21CD07BB5F83.png
0E79D17B-6886-4CA3-8999-D2974B45944C.gif
02-03 may be a decent analog. Haven’t dived any deeper than this though. SST arnt extremely close but not too far off. 02-03 was a moderate Niño event. Vs our kind of dead ENSO region but blobs are in same general areas.0

This is a pretty decent signal for a cooler winter in the East. At least much closer to normal than recent winters
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
More Qbo analogs support a cool winter for the East.

View attachment 24356


Here is 95-96 and 02-03 temps
View attachment 24357View attachment 24358


95-96 was a Niña winter but here is the Oct 2002 SST vs current

View attachment 24359
View attachment 24362
02-03 may be a decent analog. Haven’t dived any deeper than this though. SST arnt extremely close but not too far off. 02-03 was a moderate Niño event. Vs our kind of dead ENSO region but blobs are in same general areas.0

This is a pretty decent signal for a cooler winter in the East. At least much closer to normal than recent winters
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Something that’s in my mind when looking at that global SST map, While that area of above average SSTs/+PMM/warm blob around the gulf of Alaska can be a good thing (encouraging AK ridging/-EPO and sometimes a +PNA), I also don’t know if I like it Becuase it doesn’t hurt and can help aid In a GOA/Aleutian ridge/-PNA combo which has haunted us with this past heatwave/last winter, it does however aid in a cranked up STJ at times and can cause a beneficial pacific pattern for us (2014)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Something that’s in my mind when looking at that global SST map, While that area of above average SSTs/+PMM/warm blob around the gulf of Alaska can be a good thing (encouraging AK ridging/-EPO and sometimes a +PNA), I also don’t know if I like it Becuase it doesn’t hurt and can help aid In a GOA/Aleutian ridge/-PNA combo which has haunted us with this past heatwave/last winter, it does however aid in a cranked up STJ at times and can cause a beneficial pacific pattern for us (2014)
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Yeah the question is what role will it play.

IMO a huge toss up is still our ENSO. It’s possible we shift back into warm neutral and weak Niño.
C1796CFE-1BDB-4775-A851-C5D2F8DEE63B.gif
Earlier I was leaning toward ENSO staying neutral and having little “driving control” across the globe into winter. But if we do get a weak Niño that can change things drastically.


I know the index debate will always rage but at least recently the QBO has been a good indicator for temps in the East. Whether it’s causing them or it’s just a reader of another process is up for debate. BUT a falling QBO and the chance of a weak Niño should be a mildly optimistic feeling heading toward winter.

In addition the MJO stall currently in phases 8-1 has me optimistic too. We really want to see the MJO slow down and stall and stay weak into those phases heading into December.
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah the question is what role will it play.

IMO a huge toss up is still our ENSO. It’s possible we shift back into warm neutral and weak Niño.
View attachment 24363
Earlier I was leaning toward ENSO staying neutral and having little “driving control” across the globe into winter. But if we do get a weak Niño that can change things drastically.


I know the index debate will always rage but at least recently the QBO has been a good indicator for temps in the East. Whether it’s causing them or it’s just a reader of another process is up for debate. BUT a falling QBO and the chance of a weak Niño should be a mildly optimistic feeling heading toward winter.

In addition the MJO stall currently in phases 8-1 has me optimistic too. We really want to see the MJO slow down and stall and stay weak into those phases heading into December.
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Yeah, that’s going for us this winter, and while it’s probably gonna weaken soon, the IOD being in such a strong positive state will only help suppress the MJO and keep it somewhat locked in
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah the question is what role will it play.

IMO a huge toss up is still our ENSO. It’s possible we shift back into warm neutral and weak Niño.
View attachment 24363
Earlier I was leaning toward ENSO staying neutral and having little “driving control” across the globe into winter. But if we do get a weak Niño that can change things drastically.


I know the index debate will always rage but at least recently the QBO has been a good indicator for temps in the East. Whether it’s causing them or it’s just a reader of another process is up for debate. BUT a falling QBO and the chance of a weak Niño should be a mildly optimistic feeling heading toward winter.

In addition the MJO stall currently in phases 8-1 has me optimistic too. We really want to see the MJO slow down and stall and stay weak into those phases heading into December.
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting all this stuff about the QBO. It definitely helps to see all this info.

One note about the warm NW Pacific SSTs, I believe they are actually more influenced by actual weather patterns than they are drivers of the pattern. IMO, it's another, more minor, card on the table.
 
Sleet City USA said:
"It'll makes its own cold"
"CMC still shows 5 inches IMBY"
"NAM has got a killer ice storm in CAD regions"
/storm vanishes on every model "Still too far out to make a call"
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I think they overhyped the warm nose. There’s enough cold air aloft to keep it all snow.
 
GaWx said:
A warning about Clark and BAMwx: a lot of their focus in fall and winter is toward energy commodities. Like JB, they know that cold winter forecasts will significantly increase their clicks. Any firm that throws in 1977-8, one of the coldest US winters on record, as one of only two top analogs has a JB vibe to them imo and should be taken with a huge grain, especially in this day and age of global warming. Yes, weak Modoki El Niño’s have in the past been associated with very cold E US winters in some cases. But, then again, last winter also was a weak Modoki and seasonal models were extremely cold. Despite that, it as we know turned out to be one of the warmest SE winters on record! Now, seasonal models, which have been cold biased, are much warmer than last year averaged out.

From a comment I just read at a commodities board:
“ I believe BAM X was started with good intentions. Michael Clark learned quickly that bullish information will sell ten times the subscriptions. We call this on our farm the Sue Martin approach!”
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Last year was not a true Modoki El Niño.
 
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