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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Rain Cold said:
One day, will you do a seminar on all of these 2 and 3 letter mysterious indexes and their values and the implications for the pattern/weather? :)
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In a very hand-wavy sense, think of the North Pacific Oscillation as the Sea Level Pressure component that's closely related to the Pacific North American Pattern, keeping in mind that the PNA is measured traditionally at 500mb instead of the surface. The North Pacific Oscillation variability is closely linked to the 2nd EOF of SST in the extratropical North Pacific (the so-called "Victorian mode"), the 1st EOF of SSTs is the more well known PDO.


Here's what the positive phase of the NPO looks like using SLP:

North_Pacific_Oscillation.png



ecmwf-ens_mslpaNormMean_npac_6.png



Here's what the positive phase of the NPO (or in this case North Pacific Index (they're virtually the same)) correlates to at 500mb:

152.15.113.4.315.13.41.9.gif


Looks familiar eh?

It's basically the same exact pattern as the PNA at 500mb, so in essence, you can think of the NPO as the surface pressure component of the PNA.
152.15.113.4.315.13.42.20.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
In a very hand-wavy sense, think of the North Pacific Oscillation as the Sea Level Pressure component that's closely related to the Pacific North American Pattern, keeping in mind that the PNA is measured traditionally at 500mb instead of the surface. The North Pacific Oscillation variability is closely linked to the 2nd EOF of SST in the extratropical North Pacific (the so-called "Victorian mode"), the 1st EOF of SSTs is the more well known PDO.


Here's what the positive phase of the NPO looks like using SLP:

View attachment 25885



View attachment 25886



Here's what the positive phase of the NPO (or in this case North Pacific Index (they're virtually the same)) correlates to at 500mb:

View attachment 25888


Looks familiar eh?

It's basically the same exact pattern as the PNA at 500mb, so in essence, you can think of the NPO as the surface pressure component of the PNA.
View attachment 25889
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This is great. Thank you!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, here's the JMA's latest forecast for Jan 2020. It actually isn't totally unreasonable given this pattern has reappeared on a regular basis in almost every winter since 2011-12.


View attachment 25891
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I would take that, showing a weak Nino climo +PNA (W ridge/E trough), in a heartbeat. The problem is that the JMA can't forecast well just 7 days out, much less 2 months out. So, this map could easily be totally wrong/too cold for the SE.
 
GaWx said:
I would take that, showing a weak Nino climo +PNA (W ridge/E trough), in a heartbeat. The problem is that the JMA can't forecast well just 7 days out, much less 2 months out. So, this map could easily be totally wrong/too cold for the SE.
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"easily" is quite understated ... ;)
 
95365b0bfa2744ca7367fe7d6a197d45.jpg


Brrr


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Not sure if this would fall under this thread, but I was hoping some people on here could maybe provide info on shed some light on some reason why it does this.
Something I noticed about trends here at least in the Southeast is it seems like winter storms come in 2's around here. Now I know that's not always the case, but its something I have noticed. I also know that a lot of areas get more than 1 significant winter storm a year here in the South. Here are a few example years that are recent mainly here in the Carolina's. In multiple cases, winter storms fell EXACTLY two weeks apart from each other, so i'll just name those occasions.


2007 - We had a winter storm on Jan 18th or so then exactly 2 weeks later on Feb 1st

2010-2011 - We had a winterstorm the day after Christmas on the 26th then exactly 2 weeks later, we had another one into the next year on Jan 9th I believe. The one that had the South froze up for about a week.

2014 - Jan 29th, we had the winter storm that shut down Atlanta. Then exactly 2 weeks later, we had another one. The crippling ice storm for parts of GA and SC

2018 - Then as recent as less than 2 years ago, we had the coastal storm on Jan 3th, then exactly two weeks later on the 17th, we had another winter storm.

I was just wondering if anyone else noticed this or have thought about it. Seems as if in some cases, depending on location, the second storm was always bigger too. I don't there is any correlation, but just interesting. I know here in the Midlands of SC, when we have a significant winter event, they come in 2s it seems, especially in my lifetime of following weather.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I'm optimistic but I'm pessimistic about being optimistic this far out.
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Yeah to me this winter may be the epitome of all or nothing. A bad Pacific or a Pacific ridge a few degrees too far west and the SE ridge dominates and we carbon copy last year. A cooperative Pacific and we could see the long duration eastern troughs and snow chances similar to the great months we have had in the past 5-6 winters. If the nao cooperates there would be some possibility to get a decent system into areas that haven't seen a lot in recent years. You have to at least be a little optimistic that this winter may give a lot of us a chance but be weary that it could be an epic dumpster fire as well
 
SD said:
Yeah to me this winter may be the epitome of all or nothing. A bad Pacific or a Pacific ridge a few degrees too far west and the SE ridge dominates and we carbon copy last year. A cooperative Pacific and we could see the long duration eastern troughs and snow chances similar to the great months we have had in the past 5-6 winters. If the nao cooperates there would be some possibility to get a decent system into areas that haven't seen a lot in recent years. You have to at least be a little optimistic that this winter may give a lot of us a chance but be weary that it could be an epic dumpster fire as well
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Or it could be normal with some snow in Jan and Feb.


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SD said:
If the Pac plays along we are cashing checks. I'm still scared to death we find a way to blow it
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Ignoring the meteorology for a second, something definitely feels different about this winter. Going in with the expectation of a warm and boring winter, with nearly all the seasonal models showing an unfavorable unfavorable and anticipating to torch at the drop of a hat in Dec, & consistently pushing the warm pattern back in time, I admit it’s a weird feeling.

And yea the GEFS is getting even colder in the longer term...
B822C0CB-801D-40C4-94F5-EC8279D423DB.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ignoring the meteorology for a second, something definitely feels different about this winter. Going in with the expectation of a warm and boring winter, with nearly all the seasonal models showing an unfavorable unfavorable and anticipating to torch at the drop of a hat in Dec, & consistently pushing the warm pattern back in time, I admit it’s a weird feeling.

And yea the GEFS is getting even colder in the longer term...
View attachment 25949
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I agree I've had the pit of the stomach feeling that this winter ends up cold but rational thought keeps me going warm
 
SD said:
I agree I've had the pit of the stomach feeling that this winter ends up cold but rational thought keeps me going warm
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We know that practically all winters down here in the southeast feature warm spells mixed in with cold at times, but this sure has started off in the right direction. Now, here we are "clock-watching" to see when this pattern will end, without even enjoying the rarity of what we are witnessing at the present time. Back to back nights with lows in the teens in November... that will be a first for me here. This winter might just take everyone by surprise. Could we be staring down the barrel of an epic winter? Possibly, but we are not even in the 1st quarter of the ballgame yet. I have a feeling that this is going to be good.
 
I'm really getting worried about winter.... I've burnt a pile of good wood this week already and its only November.

Last year I didn't really have a feeling of a cold winter yet I cut a bunch of wood. This year I've had an itchy feeling it would be cold but I didn't cut much wood.

Faith without works is dead, and after that epic fail I'm in catch up mode.
 
SD said:
I agree I've had the pit of the stomach feeling that this winter ends up cold but rational thought keeps me going warm
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If last year never happened, I’m thinking we would be seeing a lot more talk about this year potentially being blockbuster. We are now deep into a low solar cycle now. 09-10 and 10-11 were in the same low solar arena. Weak El Niño with Modoki elements. There are a lot of important positives about this year. BUT last year had them too and it was a major disappointment, at least for my area (Chattanooga). Take away last year and I think we are all far more optimistic. But last year did happen lol.
 
Chattownsnow said:
If last year never happened, I’m thinking we would be seeing a lot more talk about this year potentially being blockbuster. We are now deep into a low solar cycle now. 09-10 and 10-11 were in the same low solar arena. Weak El Niño with Modoki elements. There are a lot of important positives about this year. BUT last year had them too and it was a major disappointment, at least for my area (Chattanooga). Take away last year and I think we are all far more optimistic. But last year did happen lol.
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I wish i could completely erase last year from my memory. Not even cuss words do that winter justice
 
Rain Cold said:
Trough is too deep. Those pretty blue colors will be at least 2 states away from us by game time.
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I thought that’s what you meant. But this time last month we were breaking record high temps so anything is possible. Just keep an open mind. Lol.


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