Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Sounds like a White Christmas may be a possibility for many areas.
One day, will you do a seminar on all of these 2 and 3 letter mysterious indexes and their values and the implications for the pattern/weather?
One day, will you do a seminar on all of these 2 and 3 letter mysterious indexes and their values and the implications for the pattern/weather?![]()
I have never seen him this confident of a cold winter. What gives
Wasn’t this guy just saying warm winter a week or two ago??
This is great. Thank you!In a very hand-wavy sense, think of the North Pacific Oscillation as the Sea Level Pressure component that's closely related to the Pacific North American Pattern, keeping in mind that the PNA is measured traditionally at 500mb instead of the surface. The North Pacific Oscillation variability is closely linked to the 2nd EOF of SST in the extratropical North Pacific (the so-called "Victorian mode"), the 1st EOF of SSTs is the more well known PDO.
Here's what the positive phase of the NPO looks like using SLP:
View attachment 25885
View attachment 25886
Here's what the positive phase of the NPO (or in this case North Pacific Index (they're virtually the same)) correlates to at 500mb:
View attachment 25888
Looks familiar eh?
It's basically the same exact pattern as the PNA at 500mb, so in essence, you can think of the NPO as the surface pressure component of the PNA.
View attachment 25889
NoWasn’t this guy just saying warm winter a week or two ago??
Wasn’t this guy just saying warm winter a week or two ago??
Fwiw, here's the JMA's latest forecast for Jan 2020. It actually isn't totally unreasonable given this pattern has reappeared on a regular basis in almost every winter since 2011-12.
View attachment 25891
Fwiw, here's the JMA's latest forecast for Jan 2020. It actually isn't totally unreasonable given this pattern has reappeared on a regular basis in almost every winter since 2011-12.
View attachment 25891
"easily" is quite understated ...I would take that, showing a weak Nino climo +PNA (W ridge/E trough), in a heartbeat. The problem is that the JMA can't forecast well just 7 days out, much less 2 months out. So, this map could easily be totally wrong/too cold for the SE.
Bingo!
If the Pac plays along we are cashing checks. I'm still scared to death we find a way to blow it
What are the odds printed on the back of the lotto ticket you are fixin' to scratch ... LOL ...If the Pac plays along we are cashing checks. I'm still scared to death we find a way to blow it
I'm optimistic but I'm pessimistic about being optimistic this far out.If the Pac plays along we are cashing checks. I'm still scared to death we find a way to blow it
Yeah to me this winter may be the epitome of all or nothing. A bad Pacific or a Pacific ridge a few degrees too far west and the SE ridge dominates and we carbon copy last year. A cooperative Pacific and we could see the long duration eastern troughs and snow chances similar to the great months we have had in the past 5-6 winters. If the nao cooperates there would be some possibility to get a decent system into areas that haven't seen a lot in recent years. You have to at least be a little optimistic that this winter may give a lot of us a chance but be weary that it could be an epic dumpster fire as wellI'm optimistic but I'm pessimistic about being optimistic this far out.
Yeah to me this winter may be the epitome of all or nothing. A bad Pacific or a Pacific ridge a few degrees too far west and the SE ridge dominates and we carbon copy last year. A cooperative Pacific and we could see the long duration eastern troughs and snow chances similar to the great months we have had in the past 5-6 winters. If the nao cooperates there would be some possibility to get a decent system into areas that haven't seen a lot in recent years. You have to at least be a little optimistic that this winter may give a lot of us a chance but be weary that it could be an epic dumpster fire as well
Ignoring the meteorology for a second, something definitely feels different about this winter. Going in with the expectation of a warm and boring winter, with nearly all the seasonal models showing an unfavorable unfavorable and anticipating to torch at the drop of a hat in Dec, & consistently pushing the warm pattern back in time, I admit it’s a weird feeling.If the Pac plays along we are cashing checks. I'm still scared to death we find a way to blow it
I agree I've had the pit of the stomach feeling that this winter ends up cold but rational thought keeps me going warmIgnoring the meteorology for a second, something definitely feels different about this winter. Going in with the expectation of a warm and boring winter, with nearly all the seasonal models showing an unfavorable unfavorable and anticipating to torch at the drop of a hat in Dec, & consistently pushing the warm pattern back in time, I admit it’s a weird feeling.
And yea the GEFS is getting even colder in the longer term...
View attachment 25949
We know that practically all winters down here in the southeast feature warm spells mixed in with cold at times, but this sure has started off in the right direction. Now, here we are "clock-watching" to see when this pattern will end, without even enjoying the rarity of what we are witnessing at the present time. Back to back nights with lows in the teens in November... that will be a first for me here. This winter might just take everyone by surprise. Could we be staring down the barrel of an epic winter? Possibly, but we are not even in the 1st quarter of the ballgame yet. I have a feeling that this is going to be good.I agree I've had the pit of the stomach feeling that this winter ends up cold but rational thought keeps me going warm
If last year never happened, I’m thinking we would be seeing a lot more talk about this year potentially being blockbuster. We are now deep into a low solar cycle now. 09-10 and 10-11 were in the same low solar arena. Weak El Niño with Modoki elements. There are a lot of important positives about this year. BUT last year had them too and it was a major disappointment, at least for my area (Chattanooga). Take away last year and I think we are all far more optimistic. But last year did happen lol.I agree I've had the pit of the stomach feeling that this winter ends up cold but rational thought keeps me going warm
I wish i could completely erase last year from my memory. Not even cuss words do that winter justiceIf last year never happened, I’m thinking we would be seeing a lot more talk about this year potentially being blockbuster. We are now deep into a low solar cycle now. 09-10 and 10-11 were in the same low solar arena. Weak El Niño with Modoki elements. There are a lot of important positives about this year. BUT last year had them too and it was a major disappointment, at least for my area (Chattanooga). Take away last year and I think we are all far more optimistic. But last year did happen lol.
I wish i could completely erase last year from my memory. Not even cuss words do that winter justice
Trough is too deep. Those pretty blue colors will be at least 2 states away from us by game time.In your opinion explain.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Trough is too deep. Those pretty blue colors will be at least 2 states away from us by game time.