ForsythSnow
Moderator
Of course I'd imagine an RDU screwjob could mean a north ATL home run. Its what we had in December of 2017 so if that's a pattern to look for I say bring it.
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Ethan80963!
Member
10 days 
ATL seems to do fairly well during RDU screwjobs. January 2011 is another example - ATL and GSP did very well, but RDU got mostly ZR.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's on my massive bucket list of things to do lol but several years off if I ever was to finish one for both SC & NC.
Out of curiosity, how difficult has it been to compile these maps?
Fountainguy97
Member
I am very thankful for the database that you have created. Even though I am now 20 miles outside of NC into TN the maps are still an amazing tool!
Hard to come by easy to read maps of any weather stuff. Yours are certainly some of the best for NC snow!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's actually not difficult, just extremely, extremely time consuming, spent the last few years steadily doing a little bit at a time. I've temporarily stopped working on them to finish up my masters & the NWS NOWData site is down for the foreseeable future so it will be a while before I get going on it again and finish up the archive after 1950. The eventual goal in addition to the thousands of maps is to put this into a GIS database, netcdf format, &/or an excel file so that it's more user-friendly & easily accessible to both a weather amateur and enthusiast.
Thanks! Glad to see they're getting put to good use and being thoroughly enjoyed!
Shane,
You just need to be strong and keep what you want to happen out of influencing your progs. That would make it a whole lot easier to not fall prey to the never-ending extreme cold hypers. Otherwise, it will never change and the pressure toward non-mild predictions will never end.
The Euro forecast is mild. Seasonal models are much warmer than last year. The globe continues to warm. Even the UAH had a big warming last month. A non-colder than normal winter is the easiest thing to predict right now.
Last winter was ~+4 vs 30 year avg in much of the SE. If someone were to ask me if I'd take ~+1 to +2 for this winter, OMG I'd take it in a heartbeat.
My official prediction, which would be the same just about every year at this time: the winter will be much, much colder than the next two weeks averaged out in terms of absolutes. That, alone, nearly guarantees a pleasant season conducive to outdoor walking.
@FallsLake Does this big October nor'Easter qualify as the kind of storm we don't want to see in October, where it means winter is going to suck now?
No, not really. But hey, stranger things!RC, do you really think it matters?
What was winter 91/92 like?? Wasn’t that the year of the “ perfect “ storm, and in October?? I think Mt Mitchell got 60”?? I’m getting old, so this is off top of my head
I think it was 91. I don't remember much good coming out of the 90s in the snow department.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That winter sucked. Wilmington beat everyone in the snow department in central & eastern NC thanks to this storm in mid January.
Fountainguy97
Member
To me the ENSO continues to be our biggest wildcard.
The recent 7 day change is remarkable.
Also notice the cooling trend up in the PDO region. If that cold pool keeps pushing east and those warm waters push east as well it could certainly bring us toward a +PDO. Could we see a +PDO start to emerge? That would also change the game as many expect a neutral or slightly -PDO.
Subsurface sure looks Nino to me.
A weak nino couldn't hurt our chance.
The recent 7 day change is remarkable.
Also notice the cooling trend up in the PDO region. If that cold pool keeps pushing east and those warm waters push east as well it could certainly bring us toward a +PDO. Could we see a +PDO start to emerge? That would also change the game as many expect a neutral or slightly -PDO.
Subsurface sure looks Nino to me.
A weak nino couldn't hurt our chance.
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NWMSGuy
Member
Would a +PDO help to establish a Ridge in the West and a trough in the East? Does it also depend on location of the warm water relative to the West coast?
Fountainguy97
Member
yeah a +PDO is favorable for could dumping into the Eastern US.
Here is the "classic" + or warm PDO. You can see a long way to go before we remotely resemble this. or even a -PDO for that matter.
here is current. Right now we are neutral with the latest number being .09 in September
The PDO region will be a key area to watch over the next month. we want a +PDO. but -PDO doesnt automatically = torch either.
NWMSGuy
Member
Good stuff! Hopefully it'll get its act together and we can soon have a +PDO. Wishing here obviously.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah a weak El Nino and weak +PDO would work together very well. PDO oftentimes amplifies the ENSO patterns. PDO has been pretty much neutral for nearly a year. we did spike to .7 +PDO in January but that isn't very strong of a signal.
Next month will be key across the Pacific! I'll take our chances.
NoSnowATL
Member
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