I don't think I can ever get on the cold winter train again until it happens once or twice. So I'll continue to expect above average temps and maybe a storm or two.
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Hard to disagree. We've had only one BN winter since 2011-12 (2014-15), and that was largely due to the last two weeks of February. Even 2013-14, the infamous winter of the Polar Vortex, finished slightly AN due to a warmer than normal December. 2011-12, 2012-13, and 2018-19 were consistently AN. And then you have 2015-16, 2016-17, and 2017-18 which all finished AN due to a month of torching (December in 2015, February in 2017/2018).
2017-18 was the closest to a BN winter in recent years, but the February torch resulted in finishing AN.
Golf7575
Member
13/14 winter had the nao/ao very positive, however the epo/wpo were very negative. I am still trying to figure out how that occurred. I know we had the "blob" south of alaska, but i think there was more to story than just that.
I know 2013-2014 was skewed warmer here in East AL. I remember a few days where the high was at mid-night due to frontal timing. One of which I think the high was 37 at midnight, yet it was a buttfreezing 14 degrees at 4pm.
For some reason a bunch of acorns showed up on the ground anybody else seeing this right now? Maybe a sign of the winters to come if we are early. Never really noticed the Acorns, I guess since we have Oak trees why not. Shows you my Ignorance
Off the topic of Acorns, I saw this on Twitter from Anthony Masiello it’s Interesting while nevertheless discouraging, setting up for the same monotonous pattern.
“Remember, this time of year, tropical forcing from saying the phase 3-6 belt is usually a good indicator for troughs into the eastern US / possible -NAO. These are the very phases that are presumably being limited by the +IOD/QBO/ENSO system (not always the case) currently.”
Translation, for a good winter, at this point the MJO phases should be in phases 3-6 not 1-2 which we are in
He also mentions that the pattern we are in tends to lead to more zonal flow and a stronger PV.
Off the topic of Acorns, I saw this on Twitter from Anthony Masiello it’s Interesting while nevertheless discouraging, setting up for the same monotonous pattern.
“Remember, this time of year, tropical forcing from saying the phase 3-6 belt is usually a good indicator for troughs into the eastern US / possible -NAO. These are the very phases that are presumably being limited by the +IOD/QBO/ENSO system (not always the case) currently.”
Translation, for a good winter, at this point the MJO phases should be in phases 3-6 not 1-2 which we are in
He also mentions that the pattern we are in tends to lead to more zonal flow and a stronger PV.
SimeonNC
Member
This is one aspect of living east of the Apps that I hate, awesome scenarios like this are pretty much impossible.
What hurts us for those situations, helps us get CADs. I would take that trade off any day.
It is just hard for me to be bullish on anything other than a warmer than normal winter for the SE US when only one of the last eight winters have ended up below normal for a large amount of the southeast.
I could be wrong and I would love to be wrong. But the strong model consensus of above normal temperatures as well as recent history just doesn't make me confident.
I could be wrong and I would love to be wrong. But the strong model consensus of above normal temperatures as well as recent history just doesn't make me confident.
I agree, but if we're looking for winter storms I think we could be good as long as areas to our north are below normal. My reasoning, we get CADs in warm and cold years. If there is cold air available to our north, eventually we tap into it and get our winter storm. So even with the SE averaging above normal we can still score (...as long as the north areas are cold).
Fountainguy97
Member
3KM still toying with some minor ZR accumulations with a NW flow early Thursday.
and so it begins. NAM ZR storms already happening. lol
NoSnowATL
Member
ugly
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, that storm last December plastered the northern & far western piedmont.
The 1922 "Knickerbocker" storm still holds the record for most snow in a single storm east of the mountains w/ 36" in Roxboro, the observation was likely legit according to several AMS publications at the time.
It would be nice if there were data maps like this for South Carolina.
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Late but not denied!
Yeah it would be nice to see how much rain SC got during these historic NC snowstorms
I like my ZR thank you. I like my local TV station to go to disaster mode.
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This shut us down for two days:
My favorite storm was in 2004 I lived in Laurens Country at the time and it was a blizzard
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04’ was a solid snowstorm. That’s actually how I gauge my snowstorms around here. If Laurens county gets it , then it must have been a hell of a snowstorm with a near perfect low track and solid cold air placement. Growing up and living in southern Greenville county, I like for that R/S line to be down towards Newberry. That’s when you know it’s going to be one to remember. And the one early December storm from last year will always be ”what could have been”. It was so close to something special around here. Precip jackpot but with 99% rain. And we still managed to get a couple inches of snow. Man.. what could have beenThis shut us down for two days:
My favorite storm was in 2004 I lived in Laurens Country at the time and it was a blizzard
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