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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I mean early predictions are just consistently WRONG year after year and should be discarded. Unless they show apocalyptic cold and snow anoms..then we hug ?
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Want to have a good track record and look like a genius? Just go warm with below average snow in the se. You'll almost never be wrong.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's because most forecasters like to go cold. Some do it because they know it gets clicks, like MSNBC Combo and Weather Indirect and @BigColdBiasBastardi. Others do it just because they have an underlying cold weenie bias. Forecasting winter temps for the SE would be very easy if you just went warmer to much warmer than normal every year. We are in a pattern, for whatever reason, where this part of the country just wants to be warm in the winter. It doesn't matter what winter forecasts say. It doesn't matter what the long range climate models say. It doesn't matter what the Almanacs say (any of them). It doesn't matter what the woolly worms say. And it doesn't matter how fat the chipskunks are or how fast the trakerjackers are flying. It is just going to be warm. And that's it.





Until it changes.
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You would be correct my man! I've accepted the fact I'll probably never see another 09-10. Just give me my 2 week cold shot and 2 inches of sleet and my expectations have been met.

Seriously though I guess you cant argue with some of the data that snowfall has increased this decade as others have posted. But it sure as hell doesn't feel like it because those snowfalls come in between massive SER induced torches that seem to be present 90% of the time.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's because most forecasters like to go cold. Some do it because they know it gets clicks, like MSNBC Combo and Weather Indirect and @BigColdBiasBastardi. Others do it just because they have an underlying cold weenie bias. Forecasting winter temps for the SE would be very easy if you just went warmer to much warmer than normal every year. We are in a pattern, for whatever reason, where this part of the country just wants to be warm in the winter. It doesn't matter what winter forecasts say. It doesn't matter what the long range climate models say. It doesn't matter what the Almanacs say (any of them). It doesn't matter what the woolly worms say. And it doesn't matter how fat the chipskunks are or how fast the trakerjackers are flying. It is just going to be warm. And that's it.





Until it changes.
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WTF is a trackerjacker?
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Want to have a good track record and look like a genius? Just go warm with below average snow in the se. You'll almost never be wrong.
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You will only be wrong in like half of the winters since 2008 that have had much more than average snowfall atleast in central AL anyways. So good ways from a genius.
 
Arcc said:
You will only be wrong in like half of the winters since 2008 that have had much more than average snowfall atleast in central AL anyways. So good ways from a genius.
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Snowfall I agree. Above ave temps 7 of the 10 I know, and possibly more. The only one I'm certain that was below was 09-10. The only other 2 maybe would be 10-11 and 14-15 which I'm not sure. I do know December and the 1st half of Jan 10-11 were cold but torched after so I'm not sure of the winter as a whole. Also 14-15 may have been below but nothing really stands out that year. 13-14 had plenty of Arctic cold and good snows but finished above average temp wise at least in CLT, I do remember that.
 
I have a question for someone who feels that they can answer this. Do we want to see the AAM rise from its low negative phase right now to have a better likelihood of a blockier winter or is that not a necessity? I am curious about that. That could be the reason why the models are indicating a positive NAO/AO in their seasonal outlook.
 
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What happened last year after December 10 has made me extremely bearish on the winter since the pattern likely won't be significantly different. I would be extremely shocked if we saw a BN winter for the SE US.

The early December storm aside, last winter was probably the most boring, dull, forgettable winter I have experienced in over a decade. We couldn't even get a flurry in January or February.
 
CyclonicFury said:
What happened last year after December 10 has made me extremely bearish on the winter since the pattern likely won't be significantly different. I would be extremely shocked if we saw a BN winter for the SE US.

The early December storm aside, last winter was probably the most boring, dull, forgettable winter I have experienced in over a decade. We couldn't even get a flurry in January or February.
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It doesn't get much worse than mid-Dec on for last winter.

It's just hard to envision a winter that has a 3 month period that is on average BN...unless we redefine what is normal. I imagine we will have a couple of 3-5 day stretches thats well BN and we will have to get lucky.

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KyloG said:
UK seasonal. Oof

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At least there isn't a GOA low. Really that doesn't look horrific to me. I could care less about the NAO as there are equal chances at snow no matter what it's at. That trough angle in the central US looks good for Tx and might give some nice upper SE storms, but it's also implying we get the SER visiting some. Not being dominant, as it would have a higher anomaly.
 
Why is it seemingly harder to get a below normal winter in the SE than the rest of the country ? Is it because of proximity to warm ocean water ? Or maybe its just my imagination.
 
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