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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
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My new favorite follow on Twitter, way better then JB.
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Interesting...EPS delta looks like the GEFS mean
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/
Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:
The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/
Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:
The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.
pcbjr
Member
Very cool
Storm5
Member
And we’re screwed
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And we’re screwed
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Crud.
ajr
Member
SnowNiner
Member
And we’re screwed
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With all the unknowns coming up for December into January, that's the one thing I'm absolutely sure of in my mind, the strat warming stuff will mean nothing for our winter; at least when it means something.
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When he says "U.S." he means New England.And we’re screwed
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MichaelJ
Member
Not quite but close. When he says US he means north of the Mason-Dixon line all the way into the Midwest
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Midwest always has winter. That’s a no brainer.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
The NC Climate Office released their winter outlook. The summary reads
With all things considered, this winter will probably look like past ENSO-neutral years and even how the past two months have played out within the atmosphere: with lots of variability!
This means seeing some warm and cool periods, some wet and dry ones, and probably even some snow, although predicting when, where, and how much is impossible to tell at this point.
Overall, our wintertime average temperatures are more likely to be near- or above-normal than below normal, but we don't expect warm weather will rule the entire season. It certainly hasn't this fall!
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=305
With all things considered, this winter will probably look like past ENSO-neutral years and even how the past two months have played out within the atmosphere: with lots of variability!
This means seeing some warm and cool periods, some wet and dry ones, and probably even some snow, although predicting when, where, and how much is impossible to tell at this point.
Overall, our wintertime average temperatures are more likely to be near- or above-normal than below normal, but we don't expect warm weather will rule the entire season. It certainly hasn't this fall!
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=305
Criteria snowfall was recently changed a few years ago for northern foothills can be seen. Wish they wouldn’t have done that it skews everything. Apples to oranges.
cd2play
Member
The bloom is definitely off as far as ssw, SAI, snd JB winter forecasts
Thor
Member
I'm probably a bit biased because I lived in a location that has benefited greatly in the past from a SSW (Feb 2010 in the MA) even if it doesn't directly produce snow in the south, if it can do anything to keep from torching or lower temperatures at all for a period during winter that's a positive impact to me.
tennessee storm
Member
No snow to go with cold. Bring me torch any day...
Even if the GEFS is over doing the EPO and troughiness in the east it's still a good sign to see a Aleutian low with -EPO. Kind of what I was hoping for to start winter off...regardless of the NAO.
I sure am hoping he EPS gets on board, even if muted somewhat.
I sure am hoping he EPS gets on board, even if muted somewhat.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I found this chart that gives the largest single snowfall for Raleigh each year, going back to 1945. I'd consider anything 3 inches or more decent, and anything 6 or more a big storm.
The 80s were totally awesome. 7 out of 10 years had what I would call decent to big snow storms for the area. 4 of those storms had over 6 inches.
The 90s sucked! One good storm in 96, and 4 years that only had a trace.
I guess the Jan 25, 2000 Carolina Crusher was making up for how bad the 90s were. Besides that, the rest of the 2000s had one big storm, and a couple of decent ones.
This decade was similar to the 2000s, but without a monster storm like the Crusher. Two big storms in 2010 and 2018, and a couple of decent ones in the middle in 2014 and 2015.
We have next month to see if we can get a good storm in 2019. Hope this coming decade we can get back to how the 80s were. It's been 30 years, so maybe it's time.
Here's the link to the chart.
https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php
The 80s were totally awesome. 7 out of 10 years had what I would call decent to big snow storms for the area. 4 of those storms had over 6 inches.
The 90s sucked! One good storm in 96, and 4 years that only had a trace.
I guess the Jan 25, 2000 Carolina Crusher was making up for how bad the 90s were. Besides that, the rest of the 2000s had one big storm, and a couple of decent ones.
This decade was similar to the 2000s, but without a monster storm like the Crusher. Two big storms in 2010 and 2018, and a couple of decent ones in the middle in 2014 and 2015.
We have next month to see if we can get a good storm in 2019. Hope this coming decade we can get back to how the 80s were. It's been 30 years, so maybe it's time.
Here's the link to the chart.
https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php
It's crazy that some of the best winter storms for the Deep South were RDU shaft jobs. I think RDU only got about an inch with the 1993 Storm of the Century. RDU also got mostly ZR from the January 2011 storm with very little snow, and the December 8-9 event in 2017 was almost all rain.
Let’s see how the models are doing. GEFS and EPS comparing there day 10-15 from a few days ago to there latest 6-10. Clearly the GEFS is winning up to this point. Will check back in a few days to see it actually verifies.
I just saw this comparison of the winters since 2007-8 vs those of the prior decade (see images below), which confirms how strong the dominating SER has been on average since 2007-8 along with how much colder it has been in the Midwest and Rockies. This even includes the cold 2009-10 and 2010-11 and still the SER has easily dominated. The 2007-8+ map looks to me like it has been dominated by a La Ninaish pattern. Well, per ONI, there have been 6 La Niña, 4 El Niño, and 2 neutral though that doesn’t really scream Nina: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
Will 2019-20 be similar? I don’t think so and still don’t think the SER will be nearly as strong as last winter. The biggest hope for me is that we eek out a weak El Niño and at least get a near normal winter rather than a torch. The last 90 days of SOI say that’s quite possible:
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Of course, some might say that last winter was a weak El Niño and look at what we got and also that we’ve got a warmer globe and especially warmer Arctic the last few years. Fair enough but 2018-9 was by a pretty wide margin the warmest weak El Niño on record in the SE. Also, we have the wild card of the weakest solar minimum in perhaps 200 years ongoing.
The prior 10 winters’ average look like El Niño type pattern domination with warmer north vs cooler south. But per ONI, there were 4 La Niña to go along with the 4 La Niña meaning balanced.
First, here are Winters since 2007-8: SER dominated/La Niña look:
Second, here are the prior 10 winters: warm Midwest/Rockies and no dominating SER/El Niño look
Will 2019-20 be similar? I don’t think so and still don’t think the SER will be nearly as strong as last winter. The biggest hope for me is that we eek out a weak El Niño and at least get a near normal winter rather than a torch. The last 90 days of SOI say that’s quite possible:
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Of course, some might say that last winter was a weak El Niño and look at what we got and also that we’ve got a warmer globe and especially warmer Arctic the last few years. Fair enough but 2018-9 was by a pretty wide margin the warmest weak El Niño on record in the SE. Also, we have the wild card of the weakest solar minimum in perhaps 200 years ongoing.
The prior 10 winters’ average look like El Niño type pattern domination with warmer north vs cooler south. But per ONI, there were 4 La Niña to go along with the 4 La Niña meaning balanced.
First, here are Winters since 2007-8: SER dominated/La Niña look:
Second, here are the prior 10 winters: warm Midwest/Rockies and no dominating SER/El Niño look
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pcbjr
Member
Great perspective, Larry!
NWMSGuy
Member
From Firsthand Weather. Above average snowfall for much of the Southeast! 
http://firsthandweather.com/4725/2019-20-winter-forecast-a-state-by-state-breakdown/
http://firsthandweather.com/4725/2019-20-winter-forecast-a-state-by-state-breakdown/
NoSnowATL
Member
From Firsthand Weather. Above average snowfall for much of the Southeast!
http://firsthandweather.com/4725/2019-20-winter-forecast-a-state-by-state-breakdown/
I like it, especially for the SE, lines up pretty well with my thinking.
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From Firsthand Weather. Above average snowfall for much of the Southeast!
http://firsthandweather.com/4725/2019-20-winter-forecast-a-state-by-state-breakdown/
From Firsthand Weather. Above average snowfall for much of the Southeast!
http://firsthandweather.com/4725/2019-20-winter-forecast-a-state-by-state-breakdown/
Poor Phil, right in the line of “best setup in years” and “mild”.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
WRAL weather is giving their winter outlook tonight during the 6:00 news.
I still say +2 to +4 for the se for the winter as a whole. I'm not saying that just because I'm pessimistic, I truly believe it. The last decade has proven this and the warm spells will be far greater and longer lasting than the cold spells. As far as snow I'm not as pessimistic as one storm can double seasonal averages in most places.
So far this year it’s seemed to be the opposite .. warm doesn’t last long at all and then extended cold periods .. we will see it it changes
"Best winter setup in years"? I don't know what is meant by "years". That area got an awesome 2017-2018 Winter. Not sure how you can top that very often. With the snow in those areas from the Dec 2017 event in the deep South and the coastal storm Jan 3rd 2018.
Cohens blog.
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
Some highlights. It’s seems the prevailing thought that the current strat model runs is good news for impending cold later in winter. But if you read his blog, specially the blurbs below it’s really not that good a news.
A PV disruption of the magnitude predicted by most models seems to me to more strongly indicative of an absorptive event.
Ironically, I was thinking, though I argue that PV disruptions lead to more severe winter weather across the NH mid-latitudes, the only guarantee with PV disruption seems to be a multi week period of milder weather for Europe and the Eastern US leading up to and including the PV disruption.
It is almost damned if you do and damned if you don’t. If the PV is stable and strong that overwhelmingly favors mild weather and if the PV is significantly disrupted only milder weather is nearly for certain with much more uncertainty with the ensuing severe winter weather. The one possible exception seems to me are the reflected PV events where there seems to be a much stronger likelihood of North American cold weather east of the Rockies.
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
Some highlights. It’s seems the prevailing thought that the current strat model runs is good news for impending cold later in winter. But if you read his blog, specially the blurbs below it’s really not that good a news.
A PV disruption of the magnitude predicted by most models seems to me to more strongly indicative of an absorptive event.
Ironically, I was thinking, though I argue that PV disruptions lead to more severe winter weather across the NH mid-latitudes, the only guarantee with PV disruption seems to be a multi week period of milder weather for Europe and the Eastern US leading up to and including the PV disruption.
It is almost damned if you do and damned if you don’t. If the PV is stable and strong that overwhelmingly favors mild weather and if the PV is significantly disrupted only milder weather is nearly for certain with much more uncertainty with the ensuing severe winter weather. The one possible exception seems to me are the reflected PV events where there seems to be a much stronger likelihood of North American cold weather east of the Rockies.
So what's the takeaway? After studying previous years, Gardner and Maze think it will be a milder winter with less snow than last year.
No El Niño this year could mean a milder winter with less snow
http://wr.al/1GqOA
All this strat stuff is horsesh#t.
He was crystal clear, the only guarantee is we will get AN temps leading up to a SSWE...a “multi-week” period. He then says there is no guarantee it will get BN in the East after with an absorptive event. He made it seem like a coin flip. Why are we even rooting for this then. Kind of funny actually, it’s a cool phenomenon but the most likely outcome is we will get AN temps over a “multi-week” period. I just wanna kick someone in the groin area.
NoSnowATL
Member
It only help Russia. Russia needs to start helps us.... oh wait.
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