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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
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Cadi40
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2014 was the first winter I was present for in Charlotte and I remember that storm quite well. It was awesome. Coming from Florida we wondered if we moved too far north!! I was not here for the 2004 event but hear wicked things about it, here’s to hoping we see another 2004 storm to close out the decade!!
gefs continues with more warming vs prior runs, @Webberweather53 you think the gefs is maybe rushing that warming event a bit to quick ? 
Parts of (NW)Raleigh have seen nice storms the past few years. It really matters where you're located in Wake County (dreaded Wake County split). I had a foot last December, nearly 10" the year before that, and a nice sleet event in 2017.
I like how some larger scale drivers are lining up. Hopefully the Aleutian low keeps showing up and the blocking around Greenland looks promising. I can't buy a below average winter temp wise overall because I just don't think that's possible anymore. But I feel the climo favored areas along and north of 85 will get 2 or 3 legit storms this year. Not sure about I20 from Atlanta to CAE but we can hope. And maybe even Dallas can score for Brent.
man this one had a brutal cut off in the Midlands. Richland county sat in a sleet rain mix with a 20 min changeover to snow, while 1 county to the North got 4-8 inches of snow. Even in 6th grade, I remember being so mad.
Wake County is such a borderline zone for snowfall. A few miles can make the difference between a big bust and a big dog. It is not uncommon for the northwestern part of the county to get a foot while the southeastern corner gets nothing. The part of NC north and west of Wake has been very lucky in recent years, while the opposite has been true for Southeastern Wake south and east. With a Niñoish atmospheric setup, this may be the case again this winter.
Avalanche
Member
After all these maps, must have been more active winters than I recall in the 2000's. Don't remember any of these and I was travelling for work going to Greensboro/HP/Winston Salem/Statesville/Charlotte/Chapel Hill. Maybe a few, but those maps make it seem more active than I can remember. I do recall a late season 2-3 incher here on March 25th or March 28th 2003 that wasn't posted.
As far as that lore of the Wake County divide, its that way in Chatham as well. Moncure gets nothing while a few miles north of Pittsboro gets the share. Triangle living for the win.
As far as that lore of the Wake County divide, its that way in Chatham as well. Moncure gets nothing while a few miles north of Pittsboro gets the share. Triangle living for the win.
Which one are we rooting for?
Rooting for GEFS...which is like rooting for the Pack. Who do I think will win...well the EPS is like Duke or the Patriots.
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The eps has cold anomalies in a donut around the northern hemisphere. I don’t recall ever seeing that before, so I’m rooting for team eps.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Dang, hard to believe Charlotte was really close to getting a foot out of that one in February 2014. The frontogenetical forcing on the front-end caught virtually all the models and forecasters off guard (somewhat analogous to Dec 2018 in RDU), was only supposed to get a trace to maybe an inch of snow in Fayetteville, ended up w/ 4-5" instead the day after another storm that was also only supposed to produce maybe an inch dropped 3-4". Lol.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely looks that way. There's also a small yet non-negligible consideration here where increasing dispersion w/ range in the ensemble suite dampens the amplitude of the warm anomaly in earlier runs. Often times in my experience w/ this model, the GEFS is a bit overzealous w/ SSWEs in the longer-term
That January 22-23 storm is one of my favorites. Went to bed under a Winter Weather Advisory for 1-2 inches. Got woke up at 4am by loud thunder and already 5 inches in the ground. Ended up with 7 inches and temps in the teens all day.
That's horrible
The eps looks like we need that rubber band to snap, zonal zonal zonal.... at least no torch
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Remind me again when/how a SSWE has helped us out here in the SE? I'm serious actually...
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NoSnowATL
Member
ITS HAPPENING!
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NWMSGuy
Member
Man I would love to see 1963 come calling. Good year for Memphis/Midsouth region and lots of cold too for a lot of folks.
ITS HAPPENING!
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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No, now it’s happening!!! Tree crushing winter inbound..
ITS HAPPENING!
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
2012-13, 2009-10, 2008-09, 2003-04, 2002-03, 1987-88, 1986-87, 1984-85, 1976-77, 1972-73, 1970-71, 1965-66, 1962-63, 1959-60, & 1957-58 are a good subset that's "helped" us in the past.
While some of these actually didn't even result in the classical -AO response at the surface and arguably made the pattern "worse" in a hand-wavy sense, you could actually argue that those cases w/ SSWEs that enticed a stronger +AO in the weeks leading up to big winter storms down here actually set the table for some of our most famous southern sliders like Feb 1973 & Jan 1988 to name a few.
On average, sudden stratospheric warming events do in fact help us and the corresponding temperature anomalies in the 60 days following a SSWE are statistically significant (shown in stippling below).
Virtually all of this significance emerges as a result of SSWEs during El Nino winters like this year, there's no signal favorable or unfavorable in NINA winter SSWEs, but do notice that the southeast ridge following SSWEs in NINA winters is considerably weaker than before said event, so you could certainly make the argument it's helping us as well.
In essence, yes SSWEs are far from guaranteed to "help" us but they do so far more frequently in El Nino winters when our base state is more receptive to cold/snow here. You also should notice that in NINO winter SSWEs like what we might see this year, our pattern shifts from being +PNA heavy before the event to being dominated by -NAO/AO thereafter.
For more see:
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Watch that UUL in S CA! It’s gonna be $$$
All we need is cold when it arrives
All we need is cold when it arrives
SnowNiner
Member
Will this be the winter where we have both an -EPO AND a -NAO? Ok, no I'm sorry that's silly. I should be punished. Nevermind.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s very difficult to get both simultaneously for any extended period of time because the same physical mechanisms that typically create -EPOs also destroy -NAOs. Stratospheric warming events can help in this regard
ajr
Member
Allan seems to agree with some of the building consensus we’re seeing regarding late Dec into JF
Jon
Member
The pac low isnt all that bad assuming we pop a +PNA
Here's a composite of all December snowstorms in the 2000's for NC. (Snowstorms being significant snows in any part of the state) I left out ZR events and small "trace only" events so as to not skew the mean toward a pattern that doesn't normally produce.
N=13
_NAO, Pac low, ridge over aleutians.... Similar pattern was seen in the Famous 2010-11 winter with storms through Dec & Jan with 10 storms from Dec 4 to Jan 22.
One thing I'm not crazy about is the lower heights in the SW on the GEFS. Maybe it's transitory. But over the last few years, there has been a tendency for that to repeat. Probably fits somewhere in the composite for rain events or mixed events here. Anyway, if the NAO is negative enough, we can deal with some troughing there. But I'd like to see it kick out and get more ridging all along the west coast.
SnowNiner
Member
Yep beat me to it. We stay cool in that pattern I think because of the -NAO but until the trough comes east with ridging on the west coast we just stay seasonal.
We get the set up that Jon posted and we're butter.
A lot of that is being caused likely from how active the STJ is, can definitely tell by 250mb winds
I can envision where disturbances move east/northeast from the southwest and then reform somewhere over the SE in a Miller B fashion. Having blocking up there will allow high pressure to be in the vicinity of where we want it, but our storm track won't be favorable and the transport of cold into the region won't be ideal. So seasonal to cool, like you said, seems most likely. But hey, we're talking about the end of November/beginning of December. Hard to really gripe too much. rn.
Yep, and I definitely like that. But we want that whole pattern shifted to the east, ideally.
Yeah, I’m assuming with it amped up that much that increases the chance for more uglier setups that don’t work to well
Seems like the only thing it does is send record cold and snow into Europe.
NoSnowATL
Member
My new favorite follow on Twitter, way better then JB.
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Jon
Member
My new favorite follow on Twitter, way better then JB.
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Dang! Model cycle difference on weathermodels? It must be a commercial feature because I’m not seeing that in my available parameters. That would make comparing runs much easier lol.
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And the upper midwest apparently. Like last winter. Winter 2018-19 actually happened for them.