Warm nose is never overhyped, it’s always underhyped in my opinion, if you see a snow sounding right on the edge of the 0C line and strong SW flow at that same layer of the warm nose, it’s time to punt and expect a sleety mess
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Why was last year not a true Modoki El Nino and what is the definition of one? Is there a technical definition?
:clap:
I always thought modoki was warmer temps in the 3.4-4 regions when compared to 1.2 region. But, last year didn't look like that, more basin wide.
It certainly appears to be these days, with the warmer climate. Didn't we have a big -NAO in 2010? Seems like it's been that long since we've seen one of those around here.
yep, blocking FTW that winter. Seems insurmountable we ever see that again for extended period in a winter.
1. That's always JB's thought process. But with GW, the correlation is likely not like it used to be.
2. 2004-5 and 1991-2 were Modoki's by this def. and they were mild in the SE.
3. I think a little warmer than normal is the best bet and would be a major victory in this day and age/much colder than last year's very mild winter (+4).
Last edited:
1995/96 winter was fantabulous in Greenville! My first winter down here! 3 or 4 modest events, some single digit cold, and lake effect snow off of lake Hartwell! One I’ll always remember!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
The thing I remember the most about that winter here in the foothills was the ice storm. Started as snow, like most winter storms here, and then went to freezing rain for a prolonged period. Very bad...
The warming of water temps isn’t along the equator. It’s more of the mid Pacific and the temps aren’t as warm as a regular El Niño. Last year was a basin wide warmth El Niño.
Fountainguy97
Member
Couple tweaks and we got ourselves a threat ???
you know it’s bad when you have to tweak the already crazy fantasy storms to get a threat. lol I’m SO ready for winter here in the mountains.
you know it’s bad when you have to tweak the already crazy fantasy storms to get a threat. lol I’m SO ready for winter here in the mountains.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
1991-92 had a nice overrunning event that dropped a decent amount of snow/ice on the I-20 corridor in January (NC largely missed out except near Wilmington).
Southport in southern Brunswick Co picked up ~4" of snow, which is pretty unusual for that portion of NC.
1995-96 was one of the few bright spots in the 90s, which were by far & away the crappiest decade for snow in NC since widespread record keeping of snowfall began in the 1890s.
This other rogue event in Dec 1993 was also cool in that many saw snow on the ground for Christmas Eve. Otherwise, the 90s were complete trash.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
From Judah Cohen:
Latest UKMet Office model forecast predicts impressive positive North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation (N/AO) with wall-to-wall mild temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere this #winter. Universal warmth not so surprising but strong positive N/AO more surprising.
Latest UKMet Office model forecast predicts impressive positive North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation (N/AO) with wall-to-wall mild temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere this #winter. Universal warmth not so surprising but strong positive N/AO more surprising.
NoSnowATL
Member
Related to this from the preliminary Maxar winter forecast I posted a week or so ago (with their permission since it was not new):
Confidence is lower than previous seasons given the mix of signals and lack of a clearer forcing mechanism. The pathway for colder comes from the solar minimum, which has increasingly been associated with Arctic blocking events. Winter 2009-2010 is an example whereby blocking resulted in a cold season across the Eastern Half. However, models are not in agreement in this regard, with their warmer projections in general related to the +NAO. The pathway for warmer is based on an atmosphere of La Niña characteristics observed since mid-Summer (i.e. –GLAAM). Statistically, the regime can persist through winter (GLAAM anomaly correlation from September/October through winter is +0.52). The risk is similar to the past couple of winters with a stronger Southeast ridge response.
Lol of course the NAO is going to be positive this winter. Don't need models to tell us this. 
Excellent. Looks like I need to get stacking the firewood.
You just gotta love the early October winter teleconnection predictions. It’s all click bait as far as I’m concerned. Next