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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

I really have a good feeling about this winter. In the summer of 2013 I moved from South Florida to Charlotte. It was our first winter here, 2013-2014, that we had an above average season. We were worried if it was going to be like that every year. We haven’t had another winter like that in quite a while, and I feel like this year will be comparable.
 
The 2m spread towards the end of the EPS ain’t little. Difficult to look at the 5h anomaly maps to decipher what is going to happen to start Dec.

E3534527-3056-4A6F-A778-94E144958E11.png
 
Today with this tight gradient around the Carolinas, a lot of leaves will be falling and I’m worried about field goals today to lol.


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When i go to the daculaweather.com website, there are many models that show the mjo forecast. Does anyone know which model would possibly be correct with the mjo progression currently? Just curious.
 
tennessee storm said:
Yea. Way to much zonal flow for us. If that verifies....
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Regarding your reference to 0Z EPS 11-15: Please explain when you say "way too much zonal flow for us". It is the coldest run yet despite less -NAO and even has your area 4 F colder than normal as Webb's map has. The entire SE is in solid cold with RDU to @pcbjr a whopping -5 anom! Granted, the next run could easily back off of this some but -4 to -5 over nearly the entire SE way out at 11-15 on a warm biased EPS (51 members) is just about as cold an outlook as you're going to see these days outside of some rarities.
 
GaWx said:
Regarding your reference to 0Z EPS 11-15: Please explain when you say "way too much zonal flow for us". It is the coldest run yet despite less -NAO and even has your area 4 F colder than normal as Webb's map has. The entire SE is in solid cold with RDU to @pcbjr a whopping -5 anom! Granted, the next run could easily back off of this some but -4 to -5 over nearly the entire SE way out at 11-15 on a warm biased EPS (51 members) is just about as cold an outlook as you're going to see these days outside of some rarities.
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Hey, Larry ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

:cool:
 
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Probably should have clarified my post above...yes the EPS is cold through Nov but was more about where it’s going into Dec. I don’t like the ridge building off the Aleutians, but that could be gone in the next few days.

C15B280D-B458-48F6-A74C-98C7A381E4C2.png
 
KyloG said:
Probably should have clarified my post above...yes the EPS is cold through Nov but was more about where it’s going into Dec. I don’t like the ridge building off the Aleutians, but that could be gone in the next few days.

View attachment 26055
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Pattern right now is great. December has concerned me (not worried me, but concerned me) for a couple weeks, based on numerous factors (most of which others have raised, so no point in reiteration). It's almost like going to the fair and possibly spending all the money in your pocket on small booths before getting to the ticket counter for the big roller coaster ride ... :eek:
 
What is going on with the PDO right now, almost like a modoki +PDO lol or just a +PDO shifted west
 
Y'all, serious question. Take a look at this map. I realize that it's the GFS and that it's at hr 384, but I can't recall seeing this much cold across this much of the NH. Am I having memory issues, or does this look unusual?

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png
 
Jon said:
The December torch could be in jeopardy if it starts off like that. I’ll take a near normal December any year.


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Below normal Decembers are generally less frequent than below normal Februarys (obviously) in NINO winters, the ones that are BN in December often (but not always) produce a big dog east of the mtns in NC in Dec.

1896-97, 1904-05, 1905-06, 1930-31, 1958-59, 1963-64, 1969-70, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, & 2009-10 come to mind as good examples.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Just to check, do you or anyone else know of any winters with this setup that had the winter turn up AN? I also wonder how much "most" means.
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I posted on this a while back, not a big sample size. But these are the BN weak ninos over past 40 years. Nov patterns compared to this Nov.

Still expecting AN winter though


3FAFA1AA-AA88-4FDC-814A-D6611DADC9BF.pngB2F281BD-3005-4C94-8CB6-DABCA11D92D8.jpeg
 
I would much rather have this setup going into the winter season. Having the hi5 maps looking like this and working for a active storm track later. The ULL in the SW is having an impact on our STJ stream. With out this we should become more stormy.


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Webberweather53 said:
Below normal Decembers are generally less frequent than below normal Februarys (obviously) in NINO winters, the ones that are BN in December often (but not always) produce a big dog east of the mtns in NC in Dec.

1896-97, 1904-05, 1905-06, 1930-31, 1958-59, 1963-64, 1969-70, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, & 2009-10 come to mind as good examples.
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The December 2, 1896 snowstorm came oh so close to occurring in November.December 1896 Snowfall Totals.jpg
 
SETNwx said:
Know nothing about the jamstec, but our Japanese friends are predicting a sweet winter for the Eastern US: View attachment 26099
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That would be incredible. But unfortunately, it looks just like the JAMSTEC maps for last winter such as this one that actually had much of the SE even colder (3-4 F colder than normal):

JamstecTempsDJFissuedjul18ColdSE.gif
 
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Slowly but surely, as tropical forcing returns to the Indian Ocean & Eastern Hemisphere in general, the SE US ridge will attempt to make a return to the larger-scale pattern.

The long range EPS is trending in that direction. The only thing that's saving us from disaster is the blocking high over the Baffin Bay, eventually due to diffusive, radiative, & dissipative processes, it will run its course.


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Webberweather53 said:
Slowly but surely, as tropical forcing returns to the Indian Ocean & Eastern Hemisphere in general, the SE US ridge will attempt to make a return to the larger-scale pattern.

The long range EPS is trending in that direction. The only thing that's saving us from disaster is the blocking high over the Baffin Bay, eventually due to diffusive, radiative, & dissipative processes, it will run its course.


View attachment 26102
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Yeah, I would definitely expect to warm up at some point. At least we are seeing the propensity for blocking. Looking out 10 days, you can still see that signal, which is encouraging. Hopefully, the Pacific will not turn hostile and remain that way this year.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, I would definitely expect to warm up at some point. At least we are seeing the propensity for blocking. Looking out 10 days, you can still see that signal, which is encouraging. Hopefully, the Pacific will not turn hostile and remain that way this year.
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Rain, i agree. That is why i asked what model is handling the mjo correctly moving forward. Especially the site i previously mentioned that dacula has. Ultimately December will be warm regardless of what we want lol, but i just want one decent pattern for cold and winter weather.
 
Webberweather53 said:
"Larry Cosgrove: Indian summer is no longer going to happen this month in east. Be very wary of accepting any extensive warming trends across the lower 48 states in December. "

Lol, this is the kiss of death! Torch inbound!
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Wonder what his thinking is behind that statement.
 
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