I believe the meteorological term is temperature healing.Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
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Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
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Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
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Isn't this a necessary evil...we have to go through this...
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To get to this?
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Here's a link to the entire forecast and video. He basically is citing the neutral enso state for going with above normal temperatures, and precip.
Brad P's Winter Forecast
Agree - here's the direct link for anyone that's curious: http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1573380658807.pdfGrits winter forecast is the first forecast that I have seen calling for blocky/cold east winter. Great read.
The MJO looks poised to run the table thru the warm phases (Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent) just in time for December when our low frequency base state (NINO) already favors a milder than average pattern.
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Does this occurrence reduce cold outbreaks in the East with the MJO and the base milder?
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Any chance this December ends up warmer than Dec 2015 when Atl was 12 degrees above normal ?Yeah the frequency and intensity of cold outbreaks would be significantly reduced in this pattern, but that doesn't mean they can't happen of course. Seeing interannual + low frequency (ENSO) + subseasonal variability all superimposing for a warm Dec definitely increases confidence in that outcome. Of the last 9 warm Decembers, this year really feels like the chips are stacked against us more than usual for a cold outcome.
Yeah the frequency and intensity of cold outbreaks would be significantly reduced in this pattern, but that doesn't mean they can't happen of course. Seeing interannual + low frequency (ENSO) + subseasonal variability all superimposing for a warm Dec definitely increases confidence in that outcome. Of the last 9 warm Decembers, this year really feels like the chips are stacked against us more than usual for a cold outcome.
Any chance this December ends up warmer than Dec 2015 when Atl was 12 degrees above normal ?
I'm highly doubtful of that outcome unless we had a Super NINO to reinforce this pattern
That chart eric posted of mjo shows 3-6 being in the warm phases, but perhaps now this time of year they are actually the "cold" phases if im getting it right.
Here’s phases 2 through 4 with a positive enso and December..Those charts have (NDJ) I believe they are November-January
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Short synopsis: when AK is cold, we torch! In a nutshell!Here’s phases 2 through 4 with a positive enso and December..
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Short synopsis: when AK is cold, we torch! In a nutshell!
Here’s phases 2 through 4 with a positive enso and December..
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you warm mongers can talk all you like, but I’ll be over here hanging on to Grit’s forecast!
Arcc, what you think about griteater forecast? Be honest lolPreach it brother. He really is forecasting what last year was supposed to be.
Arcc, what you think about griteater forecast? Be honest lol
you warm mongers can talk all you like, but I’ll be over here hanging on to Grit’s forecast!
you warm mongers can talk all you like, but I’ll be over here hanging on to Grit’s forecast!
Odd that he blacked out the entire SE and upper SE for “low snowfall climatology”...can’t think of any other reason other than thinking he’d bust easier if he made a forecast for that area.I wonder if folks would like his outlook if he wrote below normal snow in that area lol
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One of the things that I'm seeing that I like is the propensity for more blocking to show up. I take that as a really good sign that something different may be going on this year that may keep us from having another complete stinker.![]()
The difference I see in this year vs last year is that the cold is fighting harder to stick around. December will be a test for sure. All models show warm( no torch). We will see.
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One of the things that I'm seeing that I like is the propensity for more blocking to show up. I take that as a really good sign that something different may be going on this year that may keep us from having another complete stinker.
The one thing I do really want to see is a good pipeline from Russia/Eurasia through which to transport cold air over here, so we don't spend all of our good blocking blocking in mild or semi-chilly Pacific air.Good agreement and I think a good sign to start Dec, but that’s just the optimist in me.
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The one thing I do really want to see is a good pipeline from Russia/Eurasia through which to transport cold air over here, so we don't spend all of our good blocking blocking in mild or semi-chilly Pacific air.
Uhhh why? Looks very pleasant to me, temp wiseThe Euro from 96hrs to 164hr should just make you mad.
Dang near perfect storm tracks but no cold air to work with.... man oh manThe Euro from 96hrs to 164hr should just make you mad.