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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
I believe the meteorological term is temperature healing.Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
Storm5
Member
Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
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Sweet I’m not ready to put the golf clubs up yet
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Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
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Isn't this a necessary evil...we have to go through this...
To get to this?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Unfortunately yes.
It would be nice though to have just one year where we don't have to deal with this crap & we ended up w/ at least one big dog in every month of the winter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This year is definitely not characterized by neutral ENSO.
As far as I can tell, the tropical VP200 signal for this SON (which we should care about the most instead of SSTs, because VP200 ultimately determines the placement and intensity of the mid-latitude waves that emanate from anomalous sources of tropical convection) is nearly a carbon copy of the 21st century NINO composite.
ajr
Member
Agree - here's the direct link for anyone that's curious: http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1573380658807.pdf
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The MJO looks poised to run the table thru the warm phases (Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent) just in time for December when our low frequency base state (NINO) already favors a milder than average pattern.
Does this occurrence reduce cold outbreaks in the East with the MJO and the base milder?
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the frequency and intensity of cold outbreaks would be significantly reduced in this pattern, but that doesn't mean they can't happen of course. Seeing interannual + low frequency (ENSO) + subseasonal variability all superimposing for a warm Dec definitely increases confidence in that outcome. Of the last 9 warm Decembers, this year really feels like the chips are stacked against us more than usual for a cold outcome.
Any chance this December ends up warmer than Dec 2015 when Atl was 12 degrees above normal ?
I remember studying a theory that a low frequency enso may cause the MJO to speed up a bit. It went on to state that warmer weather in the tropics (IO) would increase quite a bit.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm highly doubtful of that outcome unless we had a Super NINO to reinforce this pattern
Golf7575
Member
Eric, once the mjo goes through the "warm phases" for November into early December and emerges in the other phases possibly, what would we expect in sensible wx? Those mjo charts don't do it justice.
Golf7575
Member
That chart eric posted of mjo shows 3-6 being in the warm phases, but perhaps now this time of year they are actually the "cold" phases if im getting it right.
Those charts have (NDJ) I believe they are November-January
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Golf7575
Member
Eric, i know you can't speak for noone, but what are your thoughts on paul roundy saying a few weeks back that this low frequency state and if it persists, we should see plenty of HLB for winter?
Jon
Member
Here’s phases 2 through 4 with a positive enso and December..
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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NoSnowATL
Member
pcbjr
Member
Well, I was going to come home from the office and be Debbie Downer / Realistic Rick, but alas, I see Webb beat me to the punch ... great job on both scores, Webb!
Phil
Phil
cd2play
Member
Back loaded winter for the tie!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here’s phases 2 through 4 with a positive enso and December..
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Phase 2 looks like fun and where we could end up in about 2.5-3 weeks from now barring how quickly this Scandinavian high retrogrades across Greenland & towards eastern Canada.
Otherwise, get ready to hit the links!
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
you warm mongers can talk all you like, but I’ll be over here hanging on to Grit’s forecast!
Preach it brother. He really is forecasting what last year was supposed to be.
Golf7575
Member
Arcc, what you think about griteater forecast? Be honest lol
I think it's awesome and has a 50% chance of verifying.
SnowNiner
Member
I think it has the same chance to verify as anybody else's outlook. More fun to read at least...lol.
Jon
Member
Odd that he blacked out the entire SE and upper SE for “low snowfall climatology”...can’t think of any other reason other than thinking he’d bust easier if he made a forecast for that area.
I wonder if folks would like his outlook if he wrote below normal snow in that area lolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Odd that he blacked out the entire SE and upper SE for “low snowfall climatology”...can’t think of any other reason other than thinking he’d bust easier if he made a forecast for that area.I wonder if folks would like his outlook if he wrote below normal snow in that area lol
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I'll take my chances with the rest of his outlook.
NoSnowATL
Member
The difference I see in this year vs last year is that the cold is fighting harder to stick around. December will be a test for sure. All models show warm( no torch). We will see.
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One of the things that I'm seeing that I like is the propensity for more blocking to show up. I take that as a really good sign that something different may be going on this year that may keep us from having another complete stinker.
The difference I see in this year vs last year is that the cold is fighting harder to stick around. December will be a test for sure. All models show warm( no torch). We will see.
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Good agreement and I think a good sign to start Dec, but that’s just the optimist in me.
The one thing I do really want to see is a good pipeline from Russia/Eurasia through which to transport cold air over here, so we don't spend all of our good blocking blocking in mild or semi-chilly Pacific air.
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, be nice and ironic if we get killer Greenland blocking, to go along with a nice western trough....
Need a nice west Canada ridge to go along with it...
The Euro from 96hrs to 164hr should just make you mad.
Dang near perfect storm tracks but no cold air to work with.... man oh man
^^we could do ok without the help of Siberia as long as we can generate enough cold on our side. Current snow cover is really good for the northern hemisphere. As long as we don't lose it, we could do well; especially as we get into the heart of winter. **of course if we get cross polar flow and we have a deep snow pack, we would be golden...
