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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Here's a link to the entire forecast and video. He basically is citing the neutral enso state for going with above normal temperatures, and precip.
Brad P's Winter Forecast

This year is definitely not characterized by neutral ENSO.

As far as I can tell, the tropical VP200 signal for this SON (which we should care about the most instead of SSTs, because VP200 ultimately determines the placement and intensity of the mid-latitude waves that emanate from anomalous sources of tropical convection) is nearly a carbon copy of the 21st century NINO composite.

 
The MJO looks poised to run the table thru the warm phases (Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent) just in time for December when our low frequency base state (NINO) already favors a milder than average pattern.

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The MJO looks poised to run the table thru the warm phases (Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent) just in time for December when our low frequency base state (NINO) already favors a milder than average pattern.

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Does this occurrence reduce cold outbreaks in the East with the MJO and the base milder?


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Does this occurrence reduce cold outbreaks in the East with the MJO and the base milder?


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Yeah the frequency and intensity of cold outbreaks would be significantly reduced in this pattern, but that doesn't mean they can't happen of course. Seeing interannual + low frequency (ENSO) + subseasonal variability all superimposing for a warm Dec definitely increases confidence in that outcome. Of the last 9 warm Decembers, this year really feels like the chips are stacked against us more than usual for a cold outcome.
 
Yeah the frequency and intensity of cold outbreaks would be significantly reduced in this pattern, but that doesn't mean they can't happen of course. Seeing interannual + low frequency (ENSO) + subseasonal variability all superimposing for a warm Dec definitely increases confidence in that outcome. Of the last 9 warm Decembers, this year really feels like the chips are stacked against us more than usual for a cold outcome.
Any chance this December ends up warmer than Dec 2015 when Atl was 12 degrees above normal ?
 
Yeah the frequency and intensity of cold outbreaks would be significantly reduced in this pattern, but that doesn't mean they can't happen of course. Seeing interannual + low frequency (ENSO) + subseasonal variability all superimposing for a warm Dec definitely increases confidence in that outcome. Of the last 9 warm Decembers, this year really feels like the chips are stacked against us more than usual for a cold outcome.

I remember studying a theory that a low frequency enso may cause the MJO to speed up a bit. It went on to state that warmer weather in the tropics (IO) would increase quite a bit.


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I'm highly doubtful of that outcome unless we had a Super NINO to reinforce this pattern

Eric, once the mjo goes through the "warm phases" for November into early December and emerges in the other phases possibly, what would we expect in sensible wx? Those mjo charts don't do it justice.
 
That chart eric posted of mjo shows 3-6 being in the warm phases, but perhaps now this time of year they are actually the "cold" phases if im getting it right.
 
Eric, i know you can't speak for noone, but what are your thoughts on paul roundy saying a few weeks back that this low frequency state and if it persists, we should see plenty of HLB for winter?
 
Those charts have (NDJ) I believe they are November-January


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Here’s phases 2 through 4 with a positive enso and December..

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Here’s phases 2 through 4 with a positive enso and December..

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Phase 2 looks like fun and where we could end up in about 2.5-3 weeks from now barring how quickly this Scandinavian high retrogrades across Greenland & towards eastern Canada.

Otherwise, get ready to hit the links!
 
you warm mongers can talk all you like, but I’ll be over here hanging on to Grit’s forecast!

Odd that he blacked out the entire SE and upper SE for “low snowfall climatology”...can’t think of any other reason other than thinking he’d bust easier if he made a forecast for that area. I wonder if folks would like his outlook if he wrote below normal snow in that area lol


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Odd that he blacked out the entire SE and upper SE for “low snowfall climatology”...can’t think of any other reason other than thinking he’d bust easier if he made a forecast for that area. I wonder if folks would like his outlook if he wrote below normal snow in that area lol


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I'll take my chances with the rest of his outlook. ;)
 
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The difference I see in this year vs last year is that the cold is fighting harder to stick around. December will be a test for sure. All models show warm( no torch). We will see.


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One of the things that I'm seeing that I like is the propensity for more blocking to show up. I take that as a really good sign that something different may be going on this year that may keep us from having another complete stinker.
 
One of the things that I'm seeing that I like is the propensity for more blocking to show up. I take that as a really good sign that something different may be going on this year that may keep us from having another complete stinker.

Good agreement and I think a good sign to start Dec, but that’s just the optimist in me.

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Good agreement and I think a good sign to start Dec, but that’s just the optimist in me.

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The one thing I do really want to see is a good pipeline from Russia/Eurasia through which to transport cold air over here, so we don't spend all of our good blocking blocking in mild or semi-chilly Pacific air.
 
The one thing I do really want to see is a good pipeline from Russia/Eurasia through which to transport cold air over here, so we don't spend all of our good blocking blocking in mild or semi-chilly Pacific air.

Yeah, be nice and ironic if we get killer Greenland blocking, to go along with a nice western trough....

Need a nice west Canada ridge to go along with it...
 
^^we could do ok without the help of Siberia as long as we can generate enough cold on our side. Current snow cover is really good for the northern hemisphere. As long as we don't lose it, we could do well; especially as we get into the heart of winter. **of course if we get cross polar flow and we have a deep snow pack, we would be golden...
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