NWMSGuy
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Here is the initial Maxar winter forecast that was released earlier. Unlike most forecasters shown here, these folks aren’t the least bit cold biased. Accuracy/their record is far more important to them than getting readers overly excited about prospects for a cold winter or predicting high energy usage for energy clients.
That being said, they are predicting the coldest SE winter by a good margin of the last 4 with near the 30 year normal. At ATL, they are predicting +0.5 F for DJF, which is much colder than last winter’s +4 with +0.5 in Dec, +0.1 in Jan, and +1.0 in Feb. So, all near normal months. The last 4 winters have each had 1 or 2 mild months (mainly due to very strong SER) with the other months fairly close to normal. This winter, Maxar is saying that the SER will still be there in the mean but weaker than last winter largely because the warmest equatorial Pacific waters are a little further east (dateline instead of Indonesia) although they also say there still is a notable risk of it being strong again:
**Edit: Maxar also had near normal for the SE US last winter with ~+0.5 at ATL and so they busted way too cold in the SE.
That being said, they are predicting the coldest SE winter by a good margin of the last 4 with near the 30 year normal. At ATL, they are predicting +0.5 F for DJF, which is much colder than last winter’s +4 with +0.5 in Dec, +0.1 in Jan, and +1.0 in Feb. So, all near normal months. The last 4 winters have each had 1 or 2 mild months (mainly due to very strong SER) with the other months fairly close to normal. This winter, Maxar is saying that the SER will still be there in the mean but weaker than last winter largely because the warmest equatorial Pacific waters are a little further east (dateline instead of Indonesia) although they also say there still is a notable risk of it being strong again:
**Edit: Maxar also had near normal for the SE US last winter with ~+0.5 at ATL and so they busted way too cold in the SE.
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NWMSGuy
Member
Maybe not everyone, but this look would please a lot of people. Lol CFS pops one hell of a storm December 20th on its 0z run.
Brent
Member
Where do i sign up
Accuweather's bajillion day forecast looks promising for late December! #allin
NoSnowATL
Member
They are picking up on the Mega large Snowstorm around Christmas too.
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There high/lows don’t even make sense lol, 19 to 43 with precipitation? What ?
At least a few days of it will be right. The 60s and 40s at night will be spot on!
Accuweather is almost literally a random result generator after 15 days
Wow. Above normal temps and then temps in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s. That’s spectacularly craptastic.
Would like to see Judah’s blog today and the snow builds from around the northern hemisphere. Interesting to see if it plateaus or continues to build.
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Can't wait until CJ is hyping a foot of snow and BP is saying rain only. Hmm wonder who'll be right?
I’m interested to see if CJ let’s his inner weenie out, when Cessarich is finally out of the picture!??
RollTide18
Member
I’d say Odell but that would probably end up being a Louisiana or Ohio storm
cd2play
Member
It would be funny if Ezekiel brought an ice storm to Dallas (Zeke Elliot)
cd2play
Member
Be careful how you say that. LOL
Philstorm91
Member
Judah Cohen's blog just got updated for his winter forecast:
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
NWMSGuy
Member
Will be interesting to see how everything starts playing out over the next few months.
Storm5
Member
NWMSGuy
Member
