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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

NWMSGuy said:
More chat on twitter in regards to a minor Polar Vortex event possibly on the horizon. Since there seems to be ways to forecast the possibilities of a SSW is there any way to forecast where the split occurs or even where the cold air is displaced to?
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Last year we had a major event, but other factors muted the real possibilities it could have been. It just wasnt a cold winter last year, except way to our nw.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Joe D’Aleo, says buckle up, this winter is going to be a roller coaster, I think is JBs partner, so basically expect torch!
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My impression was Joe D'Aleo was a mentor to JB and possibly better at identifying long range winter patterns. Either way I take long range with a grain of salt after last winter. I'm hoping the Modoki actually helps us this go around and we see some blocking in the right places.
 
One thing I see really interesting is the Euro is keeping the strongest lobe of the PV close to the Hudson Bay with strong blocking over the pole. I'm really getting shades again of 2013-2014. If this stays as such, a -EPO/+PNA will blast the US. The EPS and GEFS are close to this solution.
 
Arcc said:
One thing I see really interesting is the Euro is keeping the strongest lobe of the PV close to the Hudson Bay with strong blocking over the pole. I'm really getting shades again of 2013-2014. If this stays as such, a -EPO/+PNA will blast the US. The EPS and GEFS are close to this solution.
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The EPS not showing a torch and actually showing cold in addition to the GEFS showing it too is a good sign, especially the blocking. I think we are going to live up to the November thread's title in the mid term. In the long range, Let's just see where it takes us. It would be funny if we got last years overhyped winter this year instead of this year's supposed torch that was last year. In other words, the years are opposite of the forecast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The EPS not showing a torch and actually showing cold in addition to the GEFS showing it too is a good sign, especially the blocking. I think we are going to live up to the November thread's title in the mid term. In the long range, Let's just see where it takes us. It would be funny if we got last years overhyped winter this year instead of this year's supposed torch that was last year. In other words, the years are opposite of the forecast.
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That’s what I was thinking. Maybe the cold winter we were expected to see last year will happen this year.
 
Arcc said:
One thing I see really interesting is the Euro is keeping the strongest lobe of the PV close to the Hudson Bay with strong blocking over the pole. I'm really getting shades again of 2013-2014. If this stays as such, a -EPO/+PNA will blast the US. The EPS and GEFS are close to this solution.
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Hi Arcc. From what i read, that really isn't a good analog. Totally different in the fact of PDO moving from - to + that winter and opposite this year. Also, high solar year. I will admit, it was a great winter. For most at least.
 
During the fall, we have shorter wavelengths but during winter, we have longer wavelengths. Webber or gawx can attest to that. Longer wavelengths are usually more stable, but can fluctuate somewhat.
 
Thought this was a favorable pattern for weakening the PV, Aleutian low and Scandinavian ridge.

All this talk of a strong early PV, hopefully changes in Dec.

90A55BA5-3586-4570-80FC-C435C0B8DB09.png
 
The delay of the Arctic sea ice growth should keep the PV weak for a while.


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weatherfide said:
It's getting to the point where we just have to wait and see. Nothing is predictive anymore. 144 hrs and closer is all we can "see".
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Resisting the temptation to "model knock" but the verifications have not been stellar ... IMHO oftentimes it's not 144 hours, but more like 14.4 ... and this is said with a degree of seriousness ... Also IMHO, the "thing" to watch are pattern drivers out past day 5 ...
 
KyloG said:
Thought this was a favorable pattern for weakening the PV, Aleutian low and Scandinavian ridge.

All this talk of a strong early PV, hopefully changes in Dec.

View attachment 25222
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This pattern actually favors PV intensification, the planetary-scale wave is actually located over the Bering Sea & NE Siberia, we'd need to complete flip the -EPO/WPO to generate the pattern that forces displacement of the PV.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This pattern actually favors PV intensification, the planetary-scale wave is actually located over the Bering Sea & NE Siberia, we'd need to complete flip the -EPO/WPO to generate the pattern that forces displacement of the PV.
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Webber, if the seasonal models are correct with a +nao, we would want to see the -epo/wpo for us to get cold. Basically a more favorable Pacific.
 
Also Anthony Masiello mentions about the sea of okhotsk low is back. Does anyone know what he means. I think webber or gawx may know lol.
 
Golf7575 said:
Webber, if the seasonal models are correct with a +nao, we would want to see the -epo/wpo for us to get cold. Basically a more favorable Pacific.
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The EPO is something I really don't understand. I know we want it negative, but that's about it. I've seen years where we get (forecasted) positive NAO & AO along with a negative PNA (which I understand); but the EPO comes in negative and we end up with colder weather. Rain Cold (CR) remembers that year.
 
FallsLake said:
The EPO is something I really don't understand. I know we want it negative, but that's about it. I've seen years where we get (forecasted) positive NAO & AO along with a negative PNA (which I understand); but the EPO comes in negative and we end up with colder weather. Rain Cold (CR) remembers that year.
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You want the epo/wpo both negative for colder weather. The pna is positive, which focuses the coldest weather in the east. We usually get glancing blows when its positive. I think the cold pattern lasts, but will focus much further west later.
 
A -EPO is a good seeder for cold air in Canada. It promotes cross-polar flow. When paired with a +PNA, bitterly cold air can intrude into the US, frequently the eastern US, depending on the PNA ridge placement. If the PNA is neutral or negative, the coldest anoms will set up in the west or central parts of the country.
 
Had a feeling JB couldn’t go into a winter AN in the mid Atlantic.

21EA5012-5F56-4A53-BCA1-AEA6DB049AB7.png
 
Poimen said:
I wouldn’t bet against the EC. Or to put it another way, I wouldn’t bet on the Americans.
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The ONLY reason I'd go with the Euro here is due to winter persistence. It was so bad last year. I honestly think every single one of these seasonal models is no better than a coin flip.
 
Rain Cold said:
The ONLY reason I'd go with the Euro here is due to winter persistence. It was so bad last year. I honestly think every single one of these seasonal models is no better than a coin flip.
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In all honesty, I never pay attention to them, you’re actually a lot better off looking at analogs (which says a lot).
 
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