I purchased the fast passMost of your time at the rollercoaster is spent standing in line.
I purchased the fast passMost of your time at the rollercoaster is spent standing in line.
More chat on twitter in regards to a minor Polar Vortex event possibly on the horizon. Since there seems to be ways to forecast the possibilities of a SSW is there any way to forecast where the split occurs or even where the cold air is displaced to?
Our winter is Walleyworld, and we just showed up in the family truckster, without grandmas dog! ?Most of your time at the rollercoaster is spent standing in line.
Good News!
My impression was Joe D'Aleo was a mentor to JB and possibly better at identifying long range winter patterns. Either way I take long range with a grain of salt after last winter. I'm hoping the Modoki actually helps us this go around and we see some blocking in the right places.Joe D’Aleo, says buckle up, this winter is going to be a roller coaster, I think is JBs partner, so basically expect torch!
The EPS not showing a torch and actually showing cold in addition to the GEFS showing it too is a good sign, especially the blocking. I think we are going to live up to the November thread's title in the mid term. In the long range, Let's just see where it takes us. It would be funny if we got last years overhyped winter this year instead of this year's supposed torch that was last year. In other words, the years are opposite of the forecast.One thing I see really interesting is the Euro is keeping the strongest lobe of the PV close to the Hudson Bay with strong blocking over the pole. I'm really getting shades again of 2013-2014. If this stays as such, a -EPO/+PNA will blast the US. The EPS and GEFS are close to this solution.
That’s what I was thinking. Maybe the cold winter we were expected to see last year will happen this year.The EPS not showing a torch and actually showing cold in addition to the GEFS showing it too is a good sign, especially the blocking. I think we are going to live up to the November thread's title in the mid term. In the long range, Let's just see where it takes us. It would be funny if we got last years overhyped winter this year instead of this year's supposed torch that was last year. In other words, the years are opposite of the forecast.
Hi Arcc. From what i read, that really isn't a good analog. Totally different in the fact of PDO moving from - to + that winter and opposite this year. Also, high solar year. I will admit, it was a great winter. For most at least.One thing I see really interesting is the Euro is keeping the strongest lobe of the PV close to the Hudson Bay with strong blocking over the pole. I'm really getting shades again of 2013-2014. If this stays as such, a -EPO/+PNA will blast the US. The EPS and GEFS are close to this solution.
I think we want the arctic sea ice growth and its recovering real quick also i believe.The delay of the Arctic sea ice growth should keep the PV weak for a while.
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Cannot and would not dare to speak for others, but what I want is ice on Lake Okeechobee ...I think we want the arctic sea ice growth and its recovering real quick also i believe.
It's getting to the point where we just have to wait and see. Nothing is predictive anymore. 144 hrs and closer is all we can "see".What will really throw everyone for a loop is if we have the same base as last year and what was supposed to happen last year, happens this year.
Resisting the temptation to "model knock" but the verifications have not been stellar ... IMHO oftentimes it's not 144 hours, but more like 14.4 ... and this is said with a degree of seriousness ... Also IMHO, the "thing" to watch are pattern drivers out past day 5 ...It's getting to the point where we just have to wait and see. Nothing is predictive anymore. 144 hrs and closer is all we can "see".
had some snow flurries and a high of only 35, low in the upper teens with that one. Dec was warm, then Jan normalish, then Fab Feb 2015 happened.![]()
Hmmmmm
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This pattern actually favors PV intensification, the planetary-scale wave is actually located over the Bering Sea & NE Siberia, we'd need to complete flip the -EPO/WPO to generate the pattern that forces displacement of the PV.Thought this was a favorable pattern for weakening the PV, Aleutian low and Scandinavian ridge.
All this talk of a strong early PV, hopefully changes in Dec.
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Webber, if the seasonal models are correct with a +nao, we would want to see the -epo/wpo for us to get cold. Basically a more favorable Pacific.This pattern actually favors PV intensification, the planetary-scale wave is actually located over the Bering Sea & NE Siberia, we'd need to complete flip the -EPO/WPO to generate the pattern that forces displacement of the PV.
The EPO is something I really don't understand. I know we want it negative, but that's about it. I've seen years where we get (forecasted) positive NAO & AO along with a negative PNA (which I understand); but the EPO comes in negative and we end up with colder weather. Rain Cold (CR) remembers that year.Webber, if the seasonal models are correct with a +nao, we would want to see the -epo/wpo for us to get cold. Basically a more favorable Pacific.
You want the epo/wpo both negative for colder weather. The pna is positive, which focuses the coldest weather in the east. We usually get glancing blows when its positive. I think the cold pattern lasts, but will focus much further west later.The EPO is something I really don't understand. I know we want it negative, but that's about it. I've seen years where we get (forecasted) positive NAO & AO along with a negative PNA (which I understand); but the EPO comes in negative and we end up with colder weather. Rain Cold (CR) remembers that year.
Well, if he's once even half-way right, a simple "N" winter once would be a coup ...
I wouldn’t bet against the EC. Or to put it another way, I wouldn’t bet on the Americans.![]()
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The ONLY reason I'd go with the Euro here is due to winter persistence. It was so bad last year. I honestly think every single one of these seasonal models is no better than a coin flip.I wouldn’t bet against the EC. Or to put it another way, I wouldn’t bet on the Americans.
TraitorI wouldn’t bet against the EC. Or to put it another way, I wouldn’t bet on the Americans.
In all honesty, I never pay attention to them, you’re actually a lot better off looking at analogs (which says a lot).The ONLY reason I'd go with the Euro here is due to winter persistence. It was so bad last year. I honestly think every single one of these seasonal models is no better than a coin flip.
The ONLY reason I'd go with the Euro here is due to winter persistence. It was so bad last year. I honestly think every single one of these seasonal models is no better than a coin flip.
Looks like Fab Feb is not happening.*Facepalm*
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He must've drank his crazy juice when he saw the GFS and Euro and shoved it into his entire winter forecast.*Facepalm*
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What happened to December and January?*Facepalm*
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He made 3 DJF, NDJ, FMAWhat happened to December and January?![]()