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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Cad Wedge NC said:
You know what's so funny..... here we are in the year 2019 and we don't have any more of an idea concerning what this winter has in store than we would if we were in the 1950's. Heck, we might as well go back to looking at woolly worms, counting corn shucks, and watching acorns fall. Shoot, we can't even be reliable at two weeks out when it comes to forecasting winter weather....... Modern technology at its' best.
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Agreed and I did just that, dang forgot the woolly worms though...

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-2019-20-discussion.595/post-205587
 
Webberweather53 said:
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Trying to follow all the reasons why I don't get snow gives me shear stress every year.

Keeping a very open mind for this winter, but the only thing that makes me somewhat pessimistic is the persistence of the WAR. If that doesn't go away I think we will be in for a repeat of next year. Debates can be made about why it's there, but to me it's the tell tale sign of stagnated pattern and meh. Models in the longer range want to get rid of it but closer in it shows back up. I need that thing gone.

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NoSnowATL said:
And........is this good or bad Webb?


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wQBO shear stress during weak-moderate El Ninos has historically been beneficial to the SE US because those winters have occurred in concert w/ a deeper Aleutian Low.

Oth, this could come back to bite us if we consider that our interannual base state favors large Aleutian anticyclones, suppressing it only slightly w/ addition of a wQBO may lead to an even larger SE US ridge this year vs last winter.
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Webberweather53 said:
wQBO shear stress during weak-moderate El Ninos has historically been beneficial to the SE US because those winters have occurred in concert w/ a deeper Aleutian Low.

Oth, this could come back to bite us if we consider that our interannual base state favors large Aleutian anticyclones, suppressing it only slightly w/ addition of a wQBO may lead to an even larger SE US ridge this year vs last winter.
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Was just about to post that our w-nino Nov that featured a npac low went on to have BN winters and the Nov’s that didn’t have a npac low were AN. Not a big sample size though.

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KyloG said:
Was just about to post that our w-nino Nov that featured a npac low went on to have BN winters and the Nov’s that didn’t have a npac low were AN. Not a big sample size though.

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Looks like we're trying to follow the warm composite, shocker...

Not a big sample, but at the rate we've been going, anything that isn't favorable for cold around here gets blown out of proportion and we end up torching because reasons.

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_nhem_6 (2).png
 
Well, at least we have this! Note: we’re finishing close to where we did last year, and that seemed to work out great! ...

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KyloG said:
The GEFS does develop a better NPAC low, but displaced south. Last Nov definitely didn’t have it and we torched. Will see if this verified and how last half Nov develops.


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Yeah, all of this will probably change with the next set of runs. lol But it's good, even if not ideally located, to see a repeating low anomaly in the general vicinity of where we want it. Hopefully, we can do a little something right.
 
Webber or kylo, i think at some point yall need to come out and make a big post and let us know what we need to see take place for us in the east to have a legitimate chance at a colder winter than last. Usually by mid november, the winter pattern is locking in, but not always. I know most on here really want to know. Instead of the mumbo jombo you get on twitter.
 
Golf7575 said:
Webber or kylo, i think at some point yall need to come out and make a big post and let us know what we need to see take place for us in the east to have a legitimate chance at a colder winter than last. Usually by mid november, the winter pattern is locking in, but not always. I know most on here really want to know. Instead of the mumbo jombo you get on twitter.
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That’s definitely a Webber expertise job, or even GaWx.

I am a full bonafide snow weenie, hoping and praying for sleet/snow.
 
He might be talking about the Northeast but I can certainly understand what he’s talking about in the last tweet. ?❄️
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Myfrotho704_ said:
In my opinion these are gonna be the most popular storm tracks this winter, note where that track spirals over the lake due to it bombing out View attachment 25054
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That about sums it up right there, I especially love the ol Charleston transfer. That’s how I get my best 33 and rains. One we haven’t seen in a while is where they ride the jet straight into the west side of the apps. Then reform and maybe even over perform. Gotten some memorable flizzards that way.
 
NWMSGuy said:
@GaWx you are good with this type stuff! Any accuracy to this? Somewhat telling if this is true. Just my two cents.
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Bamwx is a private weather company in Indiana where people can join to get opinions about the pattern. They are pretty good. The euro weeklies are just forecasts on patterns from about a month in advance. They are just promoting their company for the most part.
 
NWMSGuy said:
@GaWx you are good with this type stuff! Any accuracy to this? Somewhat telling if this is true. Just my two cents.
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Not Larry but...

Week 4 of the weeklies are pretty bad usually, so that’s not surprising..

My thoughts are they just got lucky. Good forecast, but I recall around Oct 11 or shortly thereafter the GFS, GEFS and Euro EPS really got going with a +PNA -NAO scheme with a deep trough centered on the eastern US. I mean, they had monster -NAO big blocks showing up.... you HAD to go cold somewhere in there.

It ended up trending west over time....This tweet showcases it pretty well


They posted the forecast Oct 11 so with the 15 day run it would have been out to Oct 26. Most models did well for the time period (generally speaking — they showed some kind of cold in the east central part of the US) , and the EPS quickly caught up to the weeklies and corrected.

Comparing your forecast to a Week 4 weekly run as verification isn’t the way I’d go, but it looks nice.


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NWMSGuy said:
@GaWx you are good with this type stuff! Any accuracy to this? Somewhat telling if this is true. Just my two cents.
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JB has been literally saying the exact same thing about this model for the past week. The same with the CFSv2. He gets into a frenzy when LR models show warmth and verify colder. These people do this every year


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Golf7575 said:
Bamwx is a private weather company in Indiana where people can join to get opinions about the pattern. They are pretty good. The euro weeklies are just forecasts on patterns from about a month in advance. They are just promoting their company for the most part.
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Jon said:
Not Larry but...

Week 4 of the weeklies are pretty bad usually, so that’s not surprising..

My thoughts are they just got lucky. Good forecast, but I recall around Oct 11 or shortly thereafter the GFS, GEFS and Euro EPS really got going with a +PNA -NAO scheme with a deep trough centered on the eastern US. I mean, they had monster -NAO big blocks showing up.... you HAD to go cold somewhere in there.

It ended up trending west over time....This tweet showcases it pretty well


They posted the forecast Oct 11 so with the 15 day run it would have been out to Oct 26. Most models did well for the time period (generally speaking — they showed some kind of cold in the east central part of the US) , and the EPS quickly caught up to the weeklies and corrected.

Comparing your forecast to a Week 4 weekly run as verification isn’t the way I’d go, but it looks nice.


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Ollie Williams said:
JB has been literally saying the exact same thing about this model for the past week. The same with the CFSv2. He gets into a frenzy when LR models show warmth and verify colder. These people do this every year


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So basically a lot of picking and choosing to make “our products (the other sources)” look legit?
 
NWMSGuy said:
So basically a lot of picking and choosing to make “our products (the other sources)” look legit?
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I think so. They are good, but alot of companies will promote cold and snow to get clients, despite a bad pattern coming. They will find something good and coerce subscribers into believing them. Most private companies do that. Weather is the only profession where a meterologist wont lose their job because they obviously cant control the weather. Mother Nature controls the weather.
 
More chat on twitter in regards to a minor Polar Vortex event possibly on the horizon. Since there seems to be ways to forecast the possibilities of a SSW is there any way to forecast where the split occurs or even where the cold air is displaced to?
 
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