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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Storm5 said:
Holy hell !!!!!
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One day I’d like to get about 80% of my yearly snowfall avg in one snow!! You’d think a 3” snowfall wouldn’t be that much to ask for!?
 
JB says their winter forecast is playing it safe, He's being conservative. But it looks better than his preliminary winter forecast.....

September 26, 2019

  • We expect colder (and snowier) weather later in the winter.
  • Our forecast is a conservative approach compared to some of the analogs.
nov__mar.png

Our snowfall forecast and heart of winter forecast have not changed. For temperatures this month, we wanted to show you the longer term 5-month forecast (above). As a reminder, here is what the snowfall forecast looks like:

Winter_2019_20_Snowfall(1).png
 
metwannabe said:
Our goats are already starting to grow thicker fur, I don't care what analogs show or what the index of the day shows.... dang it I'm going with the goats. Cold air is just around the corner!
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Wonder if there is any scientific backing to this i.e. thicker fur before cold weather sets in? Regardless, I’m also going with the Goat solution. Winter is coming!
 
NWMSGuy said:
Wonder if there is any scientific backing to this i.e. thicker fur before cold weather sets in? Regardless, I’m also going with the Goat solution. Winter is coming!
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who knows Lol but they've got to be as accurate as any NAO, QBO, SOI, PNA, IOD, SOB, WTH out there :D
 
The problem with a winter forecast is there are too many factors to calculate. There are a lot of smart people (much more knowledgeable than me) who post ideas of why the winter will be cold, warm, or snowy. Really it's like a math calculation; you give 10 points for esno, times it by 5 for PDO, times that by 5 for warm waters in the north Atlantic, times that by 10 points for Siberian snow cover, and so on and so on. But if you get one negative (-1) and your whole score could flips to negative. **One thing can kill SE winter weather chances....
 
FallsLake said:
The problem with a winter forecast is there are too many factors to calculate. There are a lot of smart people (much more knowledgeable than me) who post ideas of why the winter will be cold, warm, or snowy. Really it's like a math calculation; you give 10 points for esno, times it by 5 for PDO, times that by 5 for warm waters in the north Atlantic, times that by 10 points for Siberian snow cover, and so on and so on. But if you get one negative (-1) and your whole score could flips to negative. **One thing can kill SE winter weather chances....
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Just get rid of that pesky SER over the past few years and you’re have one to remember. Hoping that all this blocking lasts into next year.


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Webberweather53 said:
We're setting ourselves up for a pretty classic weak-moderate modoki/CP NINO winter. The strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) & positive North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) will act to reinforce any oncoming NINO. At least we have that going for us.

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I’ve seen a few statements here and there how last year was also a Modoki El Niño. How will this upcoming season differ from last winter if any?
 
NWMSGuy said:
I’ve seen a few statements here and there how last year was also a Modoki El Niño. How will this upcoming season differ from last winter if any?
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Last year was a pitiful excuse of a modoki El Niño it really never materialized in 3.4 if didn’t have the Indian Ocean temps where they are now which didn’t allow for a steady STJ.


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