I'm still waiting on anything with the PV to matter. Maybe with a super strong PV it will counteract the negative influence of SSW events and create the SESI.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
I'm still waiting on anything with the PV to matter. Maybe with a super strong PV it will counteract the negative influence of SSW events and create the SESI.
Thanks for your input. But I only care about my weather in Podunk SC just like you only care about yours in Podunk TN. Its every man for himself in winter?
The only way I would be intrigued by a SSW event would be if I lived in the upper Great Plains. Other than that, meh. Click bait
I just wait for a simple miller B setup with a cad, doesn’t wark for y’all south of 85, but it has several times for me, every man for himself
Fear the transfer
Have to agree here. SSWs are fun to theorize about and can deliver to the SE but they can just as easily obliterate the pv and send it into Asia, Alaska, Europe and we get very little help.
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
cd2play
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't hang my hat on it. The -NAO is doing us absolutely no good atm because we're torching w/ a healthy, classic -NAO. The upstream Pacific pattern matters more here.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The coldest/deepest CAD events tend to deliver to Charlotte & the SW Piedmont. Feb 12-13 2014 & Dec 15-18 1930 are the most classic examples w/ 8-10" of snow/sleet before an eventual changeover to ZR.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This +TNH pattern never wants to go away.
Jon
Member
PV splits can be good for us too, but it always seems like the colder lobe is on the other side of the globe. I love looking at SSW’s and their analogs and seeing how they’ll shake out, but 9 times out of 10 it does nothing for us...and recent history tells us that. Seems like SSWs were much more influential for the NA winter before the 2000’s and maybe the early 2000s. It appears other drivers are influencing the outcomes these days.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
pcbjr
Member
Jon
Member
Thanks! I’m ready. Even if it’s above normal temperatures as the mean, there’s still plenty of storms to track which is what we’re all here for! Cheers and let’s hope it’s a good one!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
pcbjr
Member
Indexes and analogs of all kinds have failed us recently so the heck with all that, I'm going old times here. Acorns are plentiful and as big as I've ever seen, birds are gone (most of them), squirrels are stock piling and the goats cashmere undercoat is coming in nicely....I'm not talking all of the SE just locally and with that I'm preparing for a fun Winter. Bring it!
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
pcbjr
Member
Heck, I'm sneezing up a storm ... aiming my head SE for each, just to bear down on that ridge ...
In all seriousness, the dadgum Japanese Magnolias are blooming ... always the 1st to pop after the last freeze ... Hummm ...
NWMSGuy
Member
Lots of chat on the PV today.
Found this tweet from HM interesting. Any ideas on what he’s getting at? I would think an elongated look of the PV could be of benefit to the US and us here in the Southeast depending on placement.
Found this tweet from HM interesting. Any ideas on what he’s getting at? I would think an elongated look of the PV could be of benefit to the US and us here in the Southeast depending on placement.
Yeah I've seen this on twitter as well, probably means a midwest arctic dump incoming.... I'm still waiting for a PV split to help us out. If there is one thing I've learned over the years is the last part of your statement "depending on placement". That seems to always be the caveat for us
And keep in mind that HM is in the NE US where the population is very high, which means his primary focus is likely the NE US. Regardless, I usually have trouble following what he's saying. I'd prefer a met talk in simpler terms that I can follow.
Midwest Arctic dump...reminds me of last year. We barely got into the teens!
NoSnowATL
Member
A lot of what we will see this year will remind us of last year. It's going to be very similar. No facts to back it up besides what I have seen with Analogs etc.
It's a step down process, in 10 years the placement will finally make it's way to a favorable location and the arctic will get dumped on us.... patience.
Overall, I'd agree. I expect a winter by and large similar to last year, but without the early December winter storm. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Southeast get shut out outside the mountains in December. Having two significant early December SE US storms in back-to-back years is extremely rare. However, I'd expect January/February to be at least marginally better, with maybe one winter storm in either month affecting much of this board. I think if you live north and west of I-85, you got a good shot at a big dog (6"+) this winter.
It's hard to disagree with most of the models on wall-to-wall warmth for the SE based on what happened last year. But the same models last year showed an epic winter that never verified.
olhausen
Member
I’m finding acorns all over my fence so maybe the little critters are expecting a cold winter
cd2play
Member
Even if the cold dumped our way, we would still find a way to mess up. We are cursed.
pcbjr
Member
By recent standards, a normal January would seem like an ice age ...
Hopefully, I'm not too Ironic this winter.
January 2018 was pretty good actually. And that was a La Niña winter.
NoSnowATL
Member
It’s happening
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
pcbjr
Member
It’s happening
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Very afraid to ask what ... seems like that field has been repeatedly plowed, fertilized, planted and the only crop was weeds and coffee beans ...
Last edited:
WXinCanton
Member
Solar for the win:
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 25 days
2019 total: 224 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 28 Oct 2019
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 25 days
2019 total: 224 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 28 Oct 2019
Cad Wedge NC
Member
You know what's so funny..... here we are in the year 2019 and we don't have any more of an idea concerning what this winter has in store than we would if we were in the 1950's. Heck, we might as well go back to looking at woolly worms, counting corn shucks, and watching acorns fall. Shoot, we can't even be reliable at two weeks out when it comes to forecasting winter weather....... Modern technology at its' best.I’m finding acorns all over my fence so maybe the little critters are expecting a cold winter
pcbjr
Member
It's God and/or nature ... neither or either can be modeled ...
... just try and understand ... best we can do ... 
I didn't think it was possible for Ben Noll to make a positive Tweet (stipulating, of course, that a Modoki El Nino is a positive thing).
It’s happening
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NoSnowATL
Member
Looks like I’m not the only one who thinks this year and last year are on repeat. #ATeam
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
pcbjr
Member
If my #1 son can't fly over from Tokyo for Christmas this year ... then this year will not be a repeat of the past 2 ...
Looks like I’m not the only one who thinks this year and last year are on repeat. #ATeam
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Golf7575
Member
I have alot of respect for anthony masiello, but when he tweets anything, it's like you are supposed to know ever time what he means, which is not always the case. Alot of what he says is real difficult to comprehend and when asking a question, he dont usually respond back to you.
Oh it's been fertilized for sure, nice big steaming piles of it.....Very afraid to ask what ... seems like that field has been repeatedly plowed, fertilized, planted and the only crop was weeds and coffee beans ...
So like last year huh..... incoming SE December winter storm??
Looks like I’m not the only one who thinks this year and last year are on repeat. #ATeam
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk