warmer N Atlantic south of Greenland is an eye popper.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
More than some. Check out Greenland! Total opposite and an overall more distinguished warmth in the Pacific. Wonder if the below normal near Indonesia will have an effect.
This is just a drill. In the event of a real warning you would be instructed on what to do next. ????. Plus this a nice practice attach and paste. Maybe this will get everyone ready for what’s to come in about 1 1/2 months from now. Feels good to be back... ?
Please for the LOVE OF GOD NO ENSEMBLES!
Oh they are coming. ? ??
Not going to put as much stock in them this season. I went all in and got burned!!
I think everyone got burned last year on ensembles and main models through also.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Cansips is my jam! Not a bad look! Love all the western heat looks!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Analfrontal, FTW! ?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Next summer is pants tightening!???
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Cold and dry!
That’s one impressive +IOD, also almost looks like the PDO is leaning negative with cooler SSTs near the coastal areas of the west/nw while AN water temps is pooling more towards the Aleutian Islands
Wonder if those warmer waters around Greenland can pump that high and lead to some good 'ol Greenland blocking down the road
NWMSGuy
Member
Whatever we need to help mute the SER I will take that as well!
Side note: Before this winter gets ramped up, Could we please have a tutorial on how to save a map to our phone then publish it? Instead of the screenshots. Less detail that way. I'm sorry 
rant over. I don’t want to know what you been searching for in the advertisements.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
rant over. I don’t want to know what you been searching for in the advertisements. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Side note: Before this winter gets ramped up, Could we please have a tutorial on how to save a map to our phone then publish it? Instead of the screenshots. Less detail that way. I'm sorry
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
YES
The Aleutian or sometimes GOA ridge has been persistent for a decade now.
The past few months it's been more of the same and looks to continue.
I just don't see what is going to change for this winter. Last year we had the weak nino, low solar, supposedly favorable QBO and it was for naught. This is probably the least excited I have been about winter prospects since the 90's. I have enjoyed tracking the rain chances, something we will be doing the next few months.
The past few months it's been more of the same and looks to continue.
I just don't see what is going to change for this winter. Last year we had the weak nino, low solar, supposedly favorable QBO and it was for naught. This is probably the least excited I have been about winter prospects since the 90's. I have enjoyed tracking the rain chances, something we will be doing the next few months.
So we have ridging into AK and western Canada. A -NAO and the fooking SER is still there. Looks odd and if it verifies like that then I give up and start to think the SER is pattern driver instead of a result of the pattern.
Who hurt you?
Look at the plot from Aug 1 through Oct 21. Pretty much the same.
The patterns below are going to be the rare exception (2010). Doesn't mean it can't snow, I expect to see an event or two in the SE this winter. But prolonged BN temps are the exception now too.
LOL. It's almost Nov and I usually get excited about the upcoming winter and started looking at things and noticed...nothing has changed.
Even JB has given up trying to make it cold in the east. HIs prelim winter forecast for temps is essentially a slightly cooler version of what we have seen on average the past decade, and he is probably still to cold.
I think the 2018-19 forecast bust has made a lot of my posters (myself included) much more bearish on this winter temperature wise than previous winters. February was expected to be very cold and much colder than normal but the exact opposite occurred. TWC's forecast bust was brutal.
The most notable difference is the Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea is much warmer than last year. Otherwise, not that much different. ENSO and the PDO look similar with no strong AMO signal.
Main difference is the warm waters around Greenland. Which imo is good for blocking. But it doesn't seem to be helping.
Good lord, there is no rhyme or reason behind TWC boundaries. Sometimes, I wonder if their maps are drawn out by preschoolers.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Oct 2009 the waters around GN were BN and strong -NAO. But, in Oct 2010 the waters were AN and we had a -NAO. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This is good news for us in the southeast if it holds up.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Imo, JB’s average of +1 vs 1981-2010 for the SE is about the best the SE can REASONABLY hope for this winter. Think about it this way. 1981-2010 is now colder than our norm. The true norm for now (based on the 2010s) is a good 2-3 or so warmer than this. So, if we get a +1 DJF, that would actually be a colder than normal winter based on the new (2010s) normals as opposed to the out of date 1981-2010.
In the meantime, I hope folks go outside and enjoy today’s fantastic fall wx and stop the constant worry whether this winter is going to be cold. Today’s wx is some of the most comfortable of the entire year and is great for outdoor activities. And as we head toward winter, it will only get colder than today overall.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
Get use to seeing this the next 4-5 months!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I’ll take my chances with normal in the mountains, if the moisture shows up.
Jon
Member
That may be the only forecast I’m close to agreeing with that JB has ever put out. Amazing he went N/+1. I’m shocked.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The problem per Maxar meteorologists is that the -GLAAM won’t go away. This despite the neutral to weak Modoki El Niño SST pattern promotes a more La Ninaish atmospheric pattern (see last winter), which (along with warm Atlantic waters helping some) favors a SER dominated pattern. There’s no reason not to favor this for the foreseeable future. Until we get a +GLAAM dominating, I don’t expect the SER to vacate the premises in the means.
Should we just cancel winter already?? Too depressing in here, think I'll boycott this thread and wait to see what actually happens.
Avalanche
Member
Might have to head to Colorado, Inner Mountain West. They've already seen half of their average winter totals.
tonysc
Member
I agree totally with you on that. The way I see it is, if it can turn out bad when it looks like it'll be good, then it can turn out good when it looks bad for us. I know that's very simplistic but that's the way I feel about it.
Raysweather is predicting 7” of snow for Wilkes. Below normal. Last year the prediction was 9” and received 18”. Interesting to note he usually always predicts more for Asheville than Wilkes and that usually does not pan out well for him.
Ray is also predicting 22” less snow than what he predicted for Beech Mountain last year.
sigwx
Member
https://www.foxnews.com/us/winter-forecast-outlook-large-swings-climate-noaa
NOAA's winter prediction for this year
NOAA's winter prediction for this year
Ray, Avery, is one of the best. He knows his area and puts out a great product
Dream of mine to work with him someday.
pcbjr
Member
No more "Likes" for you if you boycott ...
