South East Weather Center just released winter outlook on Facebook. Too long so I didn’t read it.
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
My thoughts: We had Modoki just last winter and you see what we got even with that, the warmest SE winter for an El Nino on record. So, go mild and you'll probably be right temperaturewise as well as avoid the high chance of disappointment. The trend is your friend and it is speaking very loudly. Even so, it likely wouldn't be as mild as last winter and there would likely still be at least a couple of threats of significant wintry precip. , especially for well inland areas as there almost always is. Now whether these threats would materialize is another story that nobody can predict including maybe even the big guy.
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cd2play
Member
I don't consider lat winter as a true modoki nino. It was more like a failed attempt
Last year we struggled with a -PNA, but that warm blob this year close to AK is trying to rival 2014-2015, it wouldn’t hurt us and could help promote isolated bouts of ridging in the western US and increase the STJ at times, basically acts as a Nino In a way, +IOD should start weakening a bit soon but stay, so I’d go with @GaWx , a Modoki nino seems likely
I hope to never see a winter like 2014-15 ever again. Easily my least favorite winter in my lifetime.
What went wrong during that winter for you ? Over here in NC It was ok, if I’m not mistaken we had a nino but couldn’t get no blocking, had a decent even here but unfortunately mixed a lot with rain, ended up with 4-5 inches of a mess of sleet/snow, it wasn’t a bad setup
Last year was a mess...the big GOA ridge just killed our winter, outside the first week of Dec. This was not a canonical nino pattern, especially a modoki nino. With what's looking to be a neutral enso this winter I think we will be looking at more of the same.
We’re gonna have to thread the needle this winter again, probably. Probably gonna have t rely on a transient West coast ridge and a -EPO with a high pressure sliding out from Canada, probably gonna be a another Chicago cutter/miller Bish type winter, if there’s any positive about a miler B/CAD setup, it’s that the frontogenic band precip rate is quite intense and can add up quick, but most of the time it changes to sleet/zr in the matter of a hour/a few hours with those types of setups, a miler A setup is quite missed right now
It was a giant tease. Lots of cold air, lots of precip and nothing to show for it. I will take a winter like 2011-12 any day over that.
People who love sleet, obviously don’t live S of 85, or you’d loath it!
Also, the Xmas snow of 2010, basically sucked imby! It didn’t even start till 2 or 3 in the afternoon, so it warmed up to lower 40s, had a pasty 2” at best storm total! ?
SimeonNC
Member
NWMSGuy
Member
Do we know what those bigger problems were? Cause whatever it was, I WISH it wasn't around this year into next. Lol... and yes I know the SER is almost impossible to get rid of.
One of those problems has definitely been the MJO, and lack of a -NAO
Not sure why. I am sure smarter people could give us a technical reason why the composites below are so different. Yes, the NAO but the pacific is the big reason of the differences.
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Golf7575
Member
Don't look now, but the Indian Ocean Dipole has just skyrocketed to a 4-year high value of +1.5C above normal. This falls into the top 1% of historical IOD values dating back to 1981
45
9:23 AM - Sep 25, 2019
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This is from mike ventrice. Do we want to see a +IOD this winter? Anyone want to chime in? I still believe its early to have any good idea on winter imo.
45
9:23 AM - Sep 25, 2019
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34 people are talking about this
This is from mike ventrice. Do we want to see a +IOD this winter? Anyone want to chime in? I still believe its early to have any good idea on winter imo.
Every year or two there is a shiny new index to watch. Looks like the Indian Ocean Dipole is the one this year. I have no idea what it means with respect to its implications for the winter. Not meant as a knock on anyone for posting about it. I just don't know much about it. @Golf7575, hopefully, what you posted is a good thing.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Many pages back I asked which three letter acronym would be the thorn in our flesh this year—IOD, never heard of it but it might be the first candidate on the board. ?
