• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Rain Cold said:
Probably going to be a while. Hopefully, nobody has any high hopes of it this year. We can already see the usual modeling scenario playing out. Going to be a long winter watching pattern illusions and chasing false starts and digital snow mirages.
Click to expand...
Going to send you a PM, but you can't open it until after 12/29 ... have thoughts, but ... o_O
 
Rain Cold said:
Probably going to be a while. Hopefully, nobody has any high hopes of it this year. We can already see the usual modeling scenario playing out. Going to be a long winter watching pattern illusions and chasing false starts and digital snow mirages.
Click to expand...
December is a fall month anymore. February is a spring month. Only winter we have left is a 10 day shot in January anymore.
 
Rain Cold said:
Probably going to be a while. Hopefully, nobody has any high hopes of it this year. We can already see the usual modeling scenario playing out. Going to be a long winter watching pattern illusions and chasing false starts and digital snow mirages.
Click to expand...

We've been stuck in this regime w/ a hefty NE Pacific/AK ridge, SE Canada vortex & SE US ridge complemented by a stout +NPMM & warm "blob" in the Gulf of Alaska since the winter of 2012-13.

The month-to-month evolution of these winters is certainly intriguing & imo a good place to start for this winter's forecast.

Like the October US temp analogs, the last several winters suggest a greater potential for a colder than normal November followed by a torchy December. Thereafter, January has been a complete toss-up, February has been warmer than average but interspersed w/ a few gems when we are cold.


cd75.184.25.237.292.11.41.58.prcp.png
cd75.184.25.237.292.11.38.59.prcp.png

cd75.184.25.237.292.11.38.12.prcp.png
cd75.184.25.237.292.11.37.41.prcp.png


As some of us would probably attest to, the only winter month that's consistently performed in our favor vs normals the last several years is March.
With the warmer than average Octobers & Decembers & cooler November & Marches, we've basically had shorter than normal springs & falls, and backloaded winters. This gets annoying after a while.

cd75.184.25.237.292.11.38.38.prcp.png
 
Lickwx said:
So winter is only when we are significantly below average 3 months straight? I see, no wonder disappointment is everywhere.
Click to expand...

We probably won’t see DJF below normal for awhile. I think we forget we get snow even in a warm winter. We will see snow in the SE this year. Just not 5-10ft we want. Looks very 2013ish and that winter was good here in Ga.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Am I the only one who isn't all doom and gloom lol, despite the above average conditions every winter since 2012-13 had had a notable event.

Personally I believe that even if we do end up above average overall, it won't be a megatorch and overall closer to average. We don't need wall to wall BN departures for a good winter.



Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
 
NoSnowATL said:
We probably won’t see DJF below normal for awhile. I think we forget we get snow even in a warm winter. We will see snow in the SE this year. Just not 5-10ft we want. Looks very 2013ish and that winter was good here in Ga.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Warm winter and snow in my opinion is alright and what I like, rather would go from snow or some nice weather to go outside and grill, and not have to deal with lip cracking cold after, been like that these past few years where like a week after winter storms we torch with return flow and a pumping Bermuda high, and you can still get good snows in a warm winter, that’s especially easy for North Carolina
 
Lickwx said:
So winter is only when we are significantly below average 3 months straight? I see, no wonder disappointment is everywhere.
Click to expand...
No but average would be nice for a change. Look a couple posts above. +4 for Decembers this decade. February isn't much better. The only month that is average is January over the decade. That's not very winter like!
 
NoSnowATL said:
669037f44f9248108545db8ecd9ada65.jpg



emoji2357.png
emoji91.png
Click to expand...

Here was the prediction for last winter made in November, which was an even colder prediction:

1571597293504.jpeg
 
Sleet City USA said:
We ain't gonna know what's gonna happen till it happens
That's all i got to say
Click to expand...
That's a smart approach.... We have been fooled by long range models and predictions too many times. However, just for one winter, I would like to see it verify colder than forecasted. I think that NOAA's outlook will bust too warm as a whole. My winter forecast continues to be for a normal winter (+/-0.5 F) when all is said and done..... Is that too much to ask for?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
That's a smart approach.... We have been fooled by long range models and predictions too many times. However, just for one winter, I would like to see it verify colder than forecasted. I think that NOAA's outlook will bust too warm as a whole. My winter forecast continues to be for a normal winter (+/-0.5 F) when all is said and done..... Is that too much to ask for?
Click to expand...

Yes, most likely too much to ask for. But +1 to +2 (vs 1981-2010 average) may be attainable if we’re fortunate. Compared to last winter, that would be so much colder and it would be cold enough to be a real winter.
 
GaWx said:
Yes, most likely too much to ask for. But +1 to +2 (vs 1981-2010 average) may be attainable if we’re fortunate. Compared to last winter, that would be so much colder and it would be cold enough to be a real winter.
Click to expand...
Public PM ... watch out for January ... fruit on the tree is ripe ...
 
SimeonNC said:
Am I the only one who isn't all doom and gloom lol, despite the above average conditions every winter since 2012-13 had had a notable event.

Personally I believe that even if we do end up above average overall, it won't be a megatorch and overall closer to average. We don't need wall to wall BN departures for a good winter.



Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I’m not worried at all just as I would not be all excited if everyone was predicting a great winter. The last five winters I’ve had 3 really good ones and two really really bad ones. Because of the good winters before last I got overly excited last fall when everything was pointing to a great winter. It was a good reminder to not get to up or down on predictions for winter. Whatever is going to happen will happen regardless of predictions beforehand. Luckily I live far enough north and high enough in elevation that I rarely have 3 bad winters in a row. So if I experience a 2nd bad winter in a row this year ive got a pretty good shot at a good winter next season. Hopefully though most of us get a good one this season!
 
He mentions this sea ice growth on the North Pacific side needs to be watched through the Winter. Does anyone here know what effect if any this has on Winter?
B3C464BA-A359-4F22-A368-7B1A052576F7.jpeg8DFD80C2-34CF-496D-A3BC-F1EB1BA3158C.jpeg
 
NWMSGuy said:
He mentions this sea ice growth on the North Pacific side needs to be watched through the Winter. Does anyone here know what effect if any this has on Winter?
View attachment 24728View attachment 24729
Click to expand...
Sea ice growth doesn’t correlate to good winters in the SE at all! I think he’s hyped or mentions it every winter as a way to predict cold and snowy winters. More ice growth quicker, the colder the winter and it’s wrong almost every winter! I put in in the same category as JBs bathtub slosh theory
 
NWMSGuy said:
He mentions this sea ice growth on the North Pacific side needs to be watched through the Winter. Does anyone here know what effect if any this has on Winter?
View attachment 24728View attachment 24729
Click to expand...
It's dependent ... -EPO, MJO pf 8 close to or barely inside the COD and ... maybe ... so much to consider and one ice variable isn't worth driving a nail into ...
 
NWMSGuy said:
He mentions this sea ice growth on the North Pacific side needs to be watched through the Winter. Does anyone here know what effect if any this has on Winter?
View attachment 24728View attachment 24729
Click to expand...
I'd say it has nothing to do with what's to come and more of what already happened. We had a longer melt time this year due to a stagnant pattern that not only overbaked the SE, but also the Arctic. It'll readjust.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Sea ice growth doesn’t correlate to good winters in the SE at all! I think he’s hyped or mentions it every winter as a way to predict cold and snowy winters. More ice growth quicker, the colder the winter and it’s wrong almost every winter! I put in in the same category as JBs bathtub slosh theory
Click to expand...
He and JB are some of the few I don't really call reliable. They come up with those wild theories that don't apply to every winter just like the -NAO and snow correlation! There's always something else that will cancel the party or liven it up.
 
ForsythSnow said:
He and JB are some of the few I don't really call reliable. They come up with those wild theories that don't apply to every winter just like the -NAO and snow correlation! There's always something else that will cancel the party or liven it up.
Click to expand...
Ditto, bingo ... and thanks for the sage words!
Sea ice ... LOL ... Lanier is gonna be skateable ... :oops:
 
Rain Cold said:
Probably going to be a while. Hopefully, nobody has any high hopes of it this year. We can already see the usual modeling scenario playing out. Going to be a long winter watching pattern illusions and chasing false starts and digital snow mirages.
Click to expand...
Speak for yourself. I’m getting a 6” event EASILY this winter. It’s a no doubter!
 
I guess its best to be pessimistic than be too optimistic at this stage of the game. The things i am most intrigued about are the QBO and the IOD. There are so many factors to consider.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top