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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Webberweather53 said:
Yeah very true, they definitely do. The only downside obviously being that big dogs in NINO winters like 1986-87 are riddled w/ RDU screw jobs, especially when u compare them to the big ones in NINA winters.
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Of course I'd imagine an RDU screwjob could mean a north ATL home run. Its what we had in December of 2017 so if that's a pattern to look for I say bring it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Of course I'd imagine an RDU screwjob could mean a north ATL home run. Its what we had in December of 2017 so if that's a pattern to look for I say bring it.
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ATL seems to do fairly well during RDU screwjobs. January 2011 is another example - ATL and GSP did very well, but RDU got mostly ZR.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's on my massive bucket list of things to do lol but several years off if I ever was to finish one for both SC & NC.
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I am very thankful for the database that you have created. Even though I am now 20 miles outside of NC into TN the maps are still an amazing tool!

Hard to come by easy to read maps of any weather stuff. Yours are certainly some of the best for NC snow!
 
Sleet City USA said:
Out of curiosity, how difficult has it been to compile these maps?
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It's actually not difficult, just extremely, extremely time consuming, spent the last few years steadily doing a little bit at a time. I've temporarily stopped working on them to finish up my masters & the NWS NOWData site is down for the foreseeable future so it will be a while before I get going on it again and finish up the archive after 1950. The eventual goal in addition to the thousands of maps is to put this into a GIS database, netcdf format, &/or an excel file so that it's more user-friendly & easily accessible to both a weather amateur and enthusiast.

Fountainguy97 said:
I am very thankful for the database that you have created. Even though I am now 20 miles outside of NC into TN the maps are still an amazing tool!

Hard to come by easy to read maps of any weather stuff. Yours are certainly some of the best for NC snow!
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Thanks! Glad to see they're getting put to good use and being thoroughly enjoyed!
 
SD said:
I really want to stay on the disgruntled warm train but its getting harder to do so. I've got this sneaky suspicion that we might be heading down the road of EPO/PNA ridging that pokes toward the pole.
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Shane,
You just need to be strong and keep what you want to happen out of influencing your progs. That would make it a whole lot easier to not fall prey to the never-ending extreme cold hypers. Otherwise, it will never change and the pressure toward non-mild predictions will never end.

The Euro forecast is mild. Seasonal models are much warmer than last year. The globe continues to warm. Even the UAH had a big warming last month. A non-colder than normal winter is the easiest thing to predict right now.

Last winter was ~+4 vs 30 year avg in much of the SE. If someone were to ask me if I'd take ~+1 to +2 for this winter, OMG I'd take it in a heartbeat.

My official prediction, which would be the same just about every year at this time: the winter will be much, much colder than the next two weeks averaged out in terms of absolutes. That, alone, nearly guarantees a pleasant season conducive to outdoor walking.
 
@FallsLake Does this big October nor'Easter qualify as the kind of storm we don't want to see in October, where it means winter is going to suck now?
 
Rain Cold said:
No, not really. But hey, stranger things!
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What was winter 91/92 like?? Wasn’t that the year of the “ perfect “ storm, and in October?? I think Mt Mitchell got 60”?? I’m getting old, so this is off top of my head
 
Tarheel1 said:
What was winter 91/92 like?? Wasn’t that the year of the “ perfect “ storm, and in October?? I think Mt Mitchell got 60”?? I’m getting old, so this is off top of my head
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I think it was 91. I don't remember much good coming out of the 90s in the snow department.
 
Tarheel1 said:
What was winter 91/92 like?? Wasn’t that the year of the “ perfect “ storm, and in October?? I think Mt Mitchell got 60”?? I’m getting old, so this is off top of my head
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That winter sucked. Wilmington beat everyone in the snow department in central & eastern NC thanks to this storm in mid January.


January 16-1992 southern US snowmap.png
 
To me the ENSO continues to be our biggest wildcard.

The recent 7 day change is remarkable.

Also notice the cooling trend up in the PDO region. If that cold pool keeps pushing east and those warm waters push east as well it could certainly bring us toward a +PDO. Could we see a +PDO start to emerge? That would also change the game as many expect a neutral or slightly -PDO.
cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Subsurface sure looks Nino to me.

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif

A weak nino couldn't hurt our chance.
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
To me the ENSO continues to be our biggest wildcard.

The recent 7 day change is remarkable.

Also notice the cooling trend up in the PDO region. If that cold pool keeps pushing east and those warm waters push east as well it could certainly bring us toward a +PDO. Could we see a +PDO start to emerge? That would also change the game as many expect a neutral or slightly -PDO.
View attachment 24493

Subsurface sure looks Nino to me.

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A weak nino couldn't hurt our chance.
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Would a +PDO help to establish a Ridge in the West and a trough in the East? Does it also depend on location of the warm water relative to the West coast?
 
NWMSGuy said:
Would a +PDO help to establish a Ridge in the West and a trough in the East? Does it also depend on location of the warm water relative to the West coast?
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yeah a +PDO is favorable for could dumping into the Eastern US.

Here is the "classic" + or warm PDO. You can see a long way to go before we remotely resemble this. or even a -PDO for that matter.
PDO_WARM_2.gif

here is current. Right now we are neutral with the latest number being .09 in September
this.png


The PDO region will be a key area to watch over the next month. we want a +PDO. but -PDO doesnt automatically = torch either.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
yeah a +PDO is favorable for could dumping into the Eastern US.

Here is the "classic" + or warm PDO. You can see a long way to go before we remotely resemble this. or even a -PDO for that matter.
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here is current. Right now we are neutral with the latest number being .09 in September
View attachment 24496


The PDO region will be a key area to watch over the next month. we want a +PDO. but -PDO doesnt automatically = torch either.
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Good stuff! Hopefully it'll get its act together and we can soon have a +PDO. Wishing here obviously.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Good stuff! Hopefully it'll get its act together and we can soon have a +PDO. Wishing here obviously.
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Yeah a weak El Nino and weak +PDO would work together very well. PDO oftentimes amplifies the ENSO patterns. PDO has been pretty much neutral for nearly a year. we did spike to .7 +PDO in January but that isn't very strong of a signal.

Next month will be key across the Pacific! I'll take our chances.
 
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GaWx said:
Lol, selling!! Look at how much weaker the block is on the 12Z GFS (FV3) and look at how much warmer is the SE US.
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Selling at a major discount.

Buy in late December ... market will command a premium then ...
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’d take Grits word and outlooks, way more than Ventrice! Very cool guy and extremely knowledgeable!
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I agree with this statement as well. Do you think grit will join here?
 
Rain Cold said:
@FallsLake Does this big October nor'Easter qualify as the kind of storm we don't want to see in October, where it means winter is going to suck now?
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Big storm or a big eastern trough would not be good in the last days of October going into the first two weeks of November. If we're going with the theory.... Oh and if anybody ask for a detailed scientific explanation, I'll direct you to the closest woolly worm. ;)
 
FallsLake said:
Big storm or a big eastern trough would not be good in the last days of October going into the first two weeks of November. If we're going with the theory.... Oh and if anybody ask for a detailed scientific explanation, I'll direct you to the closest woolly worm. ;)
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Last year, we didn't have one and we had one of the sucky-est winters ever. I say let's do the opposite this October and see what happens.
 
Rain Cold said:
Last year, we didn't have one and we had one of the sucky-est winters ever. I say let's do the opposite this October and see what happens.
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I agree. And the way I see it (now), I say get the cold anyway and anytime we can. In the SE we can't be choosey. So yes, big Halloween storm and early November SC snow --> bring it on.
 
FallsLake said:
I agree. And the way I see it (now), I say get the cold anyway and anytime we can. In the SE we can't be choosey. So yes, big Halloween storm and early November SC snow --> bring it on.
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but who wants to read the daily whining for 4 months straight on afterwards ...
oh ... yeah ... some names pop in, but ...
 
I have remembered to look at the climate models and I must say last months CANSIPS is not bad at all.... FWIW.
 
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