pcbjr
Member
So long as it's not a Nada Nada winter (again) ...
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
I’m honestly gonna go for a El Niño/modoki El Niño this winter, Pacific atm is boiling with a +PMM, +PDO
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NWMSGuy
Member
Not sure what down stream implications this would have, if any, but here’s this:
I bet Judah Cohen bought a bathtub to slosh in when he saw this.
NWMSGuy
Member
LOL certainly a possibility.
Maybe him and JB can share a bathtub!
i Wanna bet the “SOI” will pop up in this thread again in a few months lol
pcbjr
Member
My hope is that we can continue to learn this winter and not let our bitterness from last winter impact what we *can* know about weather. There are so many very intelligent people here that we are lucky to have. No one gets it right all the time, but let’s not lose complete confidence.....
A sour grape ? is as bad a weenie ?, let’s strive for an educated balance.
Just my ? (2 cents in that bag ?)
A sour grape ? is as bad a weenie ?, let’s strive for an educated balance.
Just my ? (2 cents in that bag ?)
How about "the waves still over the Pacific so models don't have a good handle on it"? That's my favorite and when that starts popping up you know it's going bad.
I agree. One thing I do know is our winters will always suck compared to expectations. I'm guilty of it myself. But this is the south and even our coldest snowiest winters are not really considered cold and snowy by US averages. As far as this winter I see no reason to forecast colder than average. With the persistence of the SER and the refusal of the NAO to go negative the last few years, I see no reason to be optimistic. We may get a snowstorm or two but I expect more of the same with temps.
NWMSGuy
Member
Another opinion or? ?
I hope to see an increased number of mild E US winter forecasts, not because I want a mild winter but just because they would sound believable as opposed to the cookie cutter, interchangeable cold E US forecasts, which all run together and usually have ended up a big failure.
JB’s is not really mild but for him it is like a massive heatwave for the SE with its overall near normal. If what he has were to verify, it would seem like a brutal winter compared to recent ones. So, I’d take what he has forecasted in a heartbeat if I were given the choice.
JB’s is not really mild but for him it is like a massive heatwave for the SE with its overall near normal. If what he has were to verify, it would seem like a brutal winter compared to recent ones. So, I’d take what he has forecasted in a heartbeat if I were given the choice.
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NWMSGuy
Member
? Well, this would be a start if it were to verify.
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Except that the latest Euro DJF 500 mb based map is saying a mild SE US. So, it is calling for mild and rainy, yay, just what we want.
In addition, my analyses of ATL winters found very little correlation of total precip with wintry precip. The significant correlation is with DJF overall temperatures, not precip. This is based on an analysis of 135+ winters, a large sample.
But regardless of how winter turns out, it will still be far more enjoyable than the awful summer. Sane with most of autumn.
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NWMSGuy
Member
Even though it's stated this is a blend of two models for the winter months in the tweet I posted, that is a lot of precip showing on that map. Is this the type of precip map one would expect with a Neutral ENSO state being forecasted ? Agreed, not sure what to expect going into the winter months but anything cooler than what we are currently dealing with will be appreciated!Except that the latest Euro DJF 500 mb based map is saying a mild SE US. So, it is calling for mild and rainy, yay, just what we want.
In addition, my analyses of ATL winters found very little correlation of total precip with wintry precip. The significant correlation is with DJF overall temperatures, not precip. This is based on an analysis of 135+ winters, a large sample.
But regardless of how winter turns out, it will still be far more enjoyable than the awful summer. Sane with most of autumn.
No cold or snow in November/December = January/February Blockbuster pattern.. that’s why I don’t get all the complaining about this heat! Keep it cranking!
NWMSGuy
Member
FYI
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
This from Kirk Mellish ... Atlanta WSB Radio Met ...
https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/just-some-initial-thoughts-winter/sIMSMCLSNMboRpNbbPY7aP/
https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/just-some-initial-thoughts-winter/sIMSMCLSNMboRpNbbPY7aP/