Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

[ForsythSnow]

I'd bank on above average overall for the entire winter, either a few cold blasts and maybe 1 or 2 events best for the upper SE. And maybe a CAD event or 2. Probably going to disappoint this winter again so don't get excited.

 

[GaStorm]

I will have to start to watch the QBO more closely in the coming years. As Rain Cold mention he’s been watching it for 5-10 years and has more of an opinion then I.


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DT definitely gives the QBO a good bit of weight when doing his forecast. Guess we will see how much of a factor it becomes this winter.

 

[jackendrickwx]

I'd bank on above average overall for the entire winter, either a few cold blasts and maybe 1 or 2 events best for the upper SE. And maybe a CAD event or 2. Probably going to disappoint this winter again so don't get excited.

That's how it always goes. Idk how 2-4 events is a disappointment (although i don't live in the especially snow starved areas of the SE, so who am i to talk)

 

[Tarheel1]

I really couldn’t care less about snow right now! Get the El Niño cranking, bring me lots of cold and damp rain , to replenish ground water and save the trees and landscapes!

 

[SimeonNC]

BAMWXs forecast is basically my feelings on how winter will be, in my opinion the S.E and Upper South will probably be a lot closer to average overall, I would say that we will probably be within two degrees of average whether its AN or BN. The mountains should do well off of clippers and NW flow events, the foothills and Northern Piedmont should continue to do well with snow events as they have in the past few years.

And finally I think we are way overdue for another major ice event, it may or may not happen but we are overdue for it.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

“High pressure coming in 1mb stronger. Could have
huge implications down stream.”

“I don’t understand all the negativity. If you think it’s going to rain then why are you here?”

“Our wave hasn’t even been sampled yet.”

“It’s really not a Miller B, it’s a Miller A/B hybrid. It could work.”

“Oh well, even if this one doesn’t work out, I’m really focusing on the week of *insert long range date*.”

“Guys relax, peak snow climo Isn’t until *insert made up date*.”

“I’ve seen worse setups that worked out. I’m not throwing in the towel until *pick random day of the week*.”

 

[NoSnowATL]

“High pressure coming in 1mb stronger. Could have
huge implications down stream.”

“I don’t understand all the negativity. If you think it’s going to rain then why are you here?”

“Our wave hasn’t even been sampled yet.”

“It’s really not a Miller B, it’s a Miller A/B hybrid. It could work.”

“Oh well, even if this one doesn’t work out, I’m really focusing on the week of *insert long range date*.”

“Guys relax, peak snow climo Isn’t until *insert made up date*.”

“I’ve seen worse setups that worked out. I’m not throwing in the towel until *pick random day of the week*.”

“High pressure coming in 1mb stronger. Could have
huge implications down stream is my favorite. I think I read this statement 837 times last winter.

 

[Rain Cold]

If you're banking on 1 mb to make or break your winter storm, then you're in sad shape. Might as well make sure you know where the umbrella is.

 

[RBR71]

If you're banking on 1 mb to make or break your winter storm, then you're in sad shape. Might as well make sure you know where the umbrella is.

Hey there has to be a transition line somewhere and 1mb could move it 50 yrds. 50 yrds could make or break some of our storms for our backyards and that's all that matters. Every man, woman, child for themselves in SE winters

 

[Fountainguy97]

More Qbo analogs support a cool winter for the East.




Here is 95-96 and 02-03 temps



95-96 was a Niña winter but here is the Oct 2002 SST vs current



02-03 may be a decent analog. Haven’t dived any deeper than this though. SST arnt extremely close but not too far off. 02-03 was a moderate Niño event. Vs our kind of dead ENSO region but blobs are in same general areas.0

This is a pretty decent signal for a cooler winter in the East. At least much closer to normal than recent winters

 

[Myfrotho704_]

More Qbo analogs support a cool winter for the East.

View attachment 24356


Here is 95-96 and 02-03 temps
View attachment 24357View attachment 24358


95-96 was a Niña winter but here is the Oct 2002 SST vs current

View attachment 24359
View attachment 24362
02-03 may be a decent analog. Haven’t dived any deeper than this though. SST arnt extremely close but not too far off. 02-03 was a moderate Niño event. Vs our kind of dead ENSO region but blobs are in same general areas.0

This is a pretty decent signal for a cooler winter in the East. At least much closer to normal than recent winters

Something that’s in my mind when looking at that global SST map, While that area of above average SSTs/+PMM/warm blob around the gulf of Alaska can be a good thing (encouraging AK ridging/-EPO and sometimes a +PNA), I also don’t know if I like it Becuase it doesn’t hurt and can help aid In a GOA/Aleutian ridge/-PNA combo which has haunted us with this past heatwave/last winter, it does however aid in a cranked up STJ at times and can cause a beneficial pacific pattern for us (2014)

 

[Fountainguy97]

Something that’s in my mind when looking at that global SST map, While that area of above average SSTs/+PMM/warm blob around the gulf of Alaska can be a good thing (encouraging AK ridging/-EPO and sometimes a +PNA), I also don’t know if I like it Becuase it doesn’t hurt and can help aid In a GOA/Aleutian ridge/-PNA combo which has haunted us with this past heatwave/last winter, it does however aid in a cranked up STJ at times and can cause a beneficial pacific pattern for us (2014)

Yeah the question is what role will it play.

IMO a huge toss up is still our ENSO. It’s possible we shift back into warm neutral and weak Niño.

Earlier I was leaning toward ENSO staying neutral and having little “driving control” across the globe into winter. But if we do get a weak Niño that can change things drastically.


I know the index debate will always rage but at least recently the QBO has been a good indicator for temps in the East. Whether it’s causing them or it’s just a reader of another process is up for debate. BUT a falling QBO and the chance of a weak Niño should be a mildly optimistic feeling heading toward winter.

In addition the MJO stall currently in phases 8-1 has me optimistic too. We really want to see the MJO slow down and stall and stay weak into those phases heading into December.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah the question is what role will it play.

IMO a huge toss up is still our ENSO. It’s possible we shift back into warm neutral and weak Niño.
View attachment 24363
Earlier I was leaning toward ENSO staying neutral and having little “driving control” across the globe into winter. But if we do get a weak Niño that can change things drastically.


I know the index debate will always rage but at least recently the QBO has been a good indicator for temps in the East. Whether it’s causing them or it’s just a reader of another process is up for debate. BUT a falling QBO and the chance of a weak Niño should be a mildly optimistic feeling heading toward winter.

In addition the MJO stall currently in phases 8-1 has me optimistic too. We really want to see the MJO slow down and stall and stay weak into those phases heading into December.

Yeah, that’s going for us this winter, and while it’s probably gonna weaken soon, the IOD being in such a strong positive state will only help suppress the MJO and keep it somewhat locked in

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

At least someone can smash cold records. Sure as hell ain't us. Here is the SE we get cold fronts and still stay above average ?‍

 

[SoutheastRidge]

At least someone can smash cold records. Sure as hell ain't us. Here is the SE we get cold fronts and still stay above average ?‍View attachment 24365

The old records were all set in 2009. We all know what a great winter 09-10 was. Maybe we are in for a repeat?

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

The old records were all set in 2009. We all know what a great winter 09-10 was. Maybe we are in for a repeat?

We can all hope!

 

[ForsythSnow]

The old records were all set in 2009. We all know what a great winter 09-10 was. Maybe we are in for a repeat?

Looking back that was a decent year here. Had snow every month, with one small January event and two 3" events in Feb and Mar.

 

[Rain Cold]

Yeah the question is what role will it play.

IMO a huge toss up is still our ENSO. It’s possible we shift back into warm neutral and weak Niño.
View attachment 24363
Earlier I was leaning toward ENSO staying neutral and having little “driving control” across the globe into winter. But if we do get a weak Niño that can change things drastically.


I know the index debate will always rage but at least recently the QBO has been a good indicator for temps in the East. Whether it’s causing them or it’s just a reader of another process is up for debate. BUT a falling QBO and the chance of a weak Niño should be a mildly optimistic feeling heading toward winter.

In addition the MJO stall currently in phases 8-1 has me optimistic too. We really want to see the MJO slow down and stall and stay weak into those phases heading into December.

Thanks for posting all this stuff about the QBO. It definitely helps to see all this info.

One note about the warm NW Pacific SSTs, I believe they are actually more influenced by actual weather patterns than they are drivers of the pattern. IMO, it's another, more minor, card on the table.

 

[tramadoc]

"It'll makes its own cold"
"CMC still shows 5 inches IMBY"
"NAM has got a killer ice storm in CAD regions"
/storm vanishes on every model "Still too far out to make a call"

I think they overhyped the warm nose. There’s enough cold air aloft to keep it all snow.

 

[tramadoc]

A warning about Clark and BAMwx: a lot of their focus in fall and winter is toward energy commodities. Like JB, they know that cold winter forecasts will significantly increase their clicks. Any firm that throws in 1977-8, one of the coldest US winters on record, as one of only two top analogs has a JB vibe to them imo and should be taken with a huge grain, especially in this day and age of global warming. Yes, weak Modoki El Niño’s have in the past been associated with very cold E US winters in some cases. But, then again, last winter also was a weak Modoki and seasonal models were extremely cold. Despite that, it as we know turned out to be one of the warmest SE winters on record! Now, seasonal models, which have been cold biased, are much warmer than last year averaged out.

From a comment I just read at a commodities board:
“ I believe BAM X was started with good intentions. Michael Clark learned quickly that bullish information will sell ten times the subscriptions. We call this on our farm the Sue Martin approach!”

Last year was not a true Modoki El Niño.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I think they overhyped the warm nose. There’s enough cold air aloft to keep it all snow.

Warm nose is never overhyped, it’s always underhyped in my opinion, if you see a snow sounding right on the edge of the 0C line and strong SW flow at that same layer of the warm nose, it’s time to punt and expect a sleety mess

 

[GaWx]

Last year was not a true Modoki El Niño.

Why was last year not a true Modoki El Nino and what is the definition of one? Is there a technical definition?

 

[Rain Cold]

Warm nose is never overhyped, it’s always underhyped in my opinion, if you see a snow sounding right on the edge of the 0C line and strong SW flow at that same layer of the warm nose, it’s time to punt and expect a sleety mess

:clap:

 

[KyloG]

Why was last year not a true Modoki El Nino and what is the definition of one? Is there a technical definition?

I always thought modoki was warmer temps in the 3.4-4 regions when compared to 1.2 region. But, last year didn't look like that, more basin wide.

 

[Tagat]

A Little Nip in the Air

 

[KyloG]

Just to add onto above. 2010 was modoki and of course the thought process must be if we get modoki again we get repeat of that winter. Seems like 2010 is one of those 1 in 30 year winters.

 

[Rain Cold]

Just to add onto above. 2010 was modoki and of course the thought process must be if we get modoki again we get repeat of that winter. Seems like 2010 is one of those 1 in 30 year winters.

View attachment 24370

It certainly appears to be these days, with the warmer climate. Didn't we have a big -NAO in 2010? Seems like it's been that long since we've seen one of those around here.

 

[KyloG]

It certainly appears to be these days, with the warmer climate. Didn't we have a big -NAO in 2010? Seems like it's been that long since we've seen one of those around here.

yep, blocking FTW that winter. Seems insurmountable we ever see that again for extended period in a winter.

 

[GaWx]

Just to add onto above. 2010 was modoki and of course the thought process must be if we get modoki again we get repeat of that winter. Seems like 2010 is one of those 1 in 30 year winters.

View attachment 24370

1. That's always JB's thought process. But with GW, the correlation is likely not like it used to be.
2. 2004-5 and 1991-2 were Modoki's by this def. and they were mild in the SE.
3. I think a little warmer than normal is the best bet and would be a major victory in this day and age/much colder than last year's very mild winter (+4).

 

[Tarheel1]

1. That's always JB's thought process. But with GW, the correlation is likely not like it used to be.
2. 2004-5 and 1991-2 were Modoki's by this def. and they were mild in the SE.

1995/96 winter was fantabulous in Greenville! My first winter down here! 3 or 4 modest events, some single digit cold, and lake effect snow off of lake Hartwell! One I’ll always remember!

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

1995/96 winter was fantabulous in Greenville! My first winter down here! 3 or 4 modest events, some single digit cold, and lake effect snow off of lake Hartwell! One I’ll always remember!

The thing I remember the most about that winter here in the foothills was the ice storm. Started as snow, like most winter storms here, and then went to freezing rain for a prolonged period. Very bad...

 

[tramadoc]

Why was last year not a true Modoki El Nino and what is the definition of one? Is there a technical definition?

The warming of water temps isn’t along the equator. It’s more of the mid Pacific and the temps aren’t as warm as a regular El Niño. Last year was a basin wide warmth El Niño.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Couple tweaks and we got ourselves a threat ???

you know it’s bad when you have to tweak the already crazy fantasy storms to get a threat. lol I’m SO ready for winter here in the mountains.

 

[Webberweather53]

1995/96 winter was fantabulous in Greenville! My first winter down here! 3 or 4 modest events, some single digit cold, and lake effect snow off of lake Hartwell! One I’ll always remember!

1991-92 had a nice overrunning event that dropped a decent amount of snow/ice on the I-20 corridor in January (NC largely missed out except near Wilmington).
Southport in southern Brunswick Co picked up ~4" of snow, which is pretty unusual for that portion of NC.



1995-96 was one of the few bright spots in the 90s, which were by far & away the crappiest decade for snow in NC since widespread record keeping of snowfall began in the 1890s.

This other rogue event in Dec 1993 was also cool in that many saw snow on the ground for Christmas Eve. Otherwise, the 90s were complete trash.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

From Judah Cohen:

Latest UKMet Office model forecast predicts impressive positive North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation (N/AO) with wall-to-wall mild temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere this #winter. Universal warmth not so surprising but strong positive N/AO more surprising.

 

[NoSnowATL]

From Judah Cohen:

Latest UKMet Office model forecast predicts impressive positive North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation (N/AO) with wall-to-wall mild temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere this #winter. Universal warmth not so surprising but strong positive N/AO more surprising.

So basically like last winter.?


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[GaWx]

From Judah Cohen:

Latest UKMet Office model forecast predicts impressive positive North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation (N/AO) with wall-to-wall mild temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere this #winter. Universal warmth not so surprising but strong positive N/AO more surprising.

Related to this from the preliminary Maxar winter forecast I posted a week or so ago (with their permission since it was not new):

Confidence is lower than previous seasons given the mix of signals and lack of a clearer forcing mechanism. The pathway for colder comes from the solar minimum, which has increasingly been associated with Arctic blocking events. Winter 2009-2010 is an example whereby blocking resulted in a cold season across the Eastern Half. However, models are not in agreement in this regard, with their warmer projections in general related to the +NAO. The pathway for warmer is based on an atmosphere of La Niña characteristics observed since mid-Summer (i.e. –GLAAM). Statistically, the regime can persist through winter (GLAAM anomaly correlation from September/October through winter is +0.52). The risk is similar to the past couple of winters with a stronger Southeast ridge response.

 

[Rain Cold]

Lol of course the NAO is going to be positive this winter. Don't need models to tell us this.

 

[Arcc]

From Judah Cohen:

Latest UKMet Office model forecast predicts impressive positive North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation (N/AO) with wall-to-wall mild temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere this #winter. Universal warmth not so surprising but strong positive N/AO more surprising.

Excellent. Looks like I need to get stacking the firewood.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

You just gotta love the early October winter teleconnection predictions. It’s all click bait as far as I’m concerned. Next