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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

You know what..... I actually feel a little optimistic going into this winter. I am thinking that we have a normal winter for a change. Yes there will be some warmth, but I believe when all is said and done we will be closer to average. That would be a nice treat compared to last winter. It will all be up to the SER. Reminder SE ridges are harder to get established in a Nino winter. They are more favored in Nina years.
 
GaWx said:
Two words: cold bias.

Edit: Also, bamwx has energy clients, which could easily bias them to look for a cold winter. I think that's one of JB's problems to be honest.

Edit 2: Last year at this time, the model consensus was even colder! Don't fall for it, folks!
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Well, then my spiders have a cold bias, as they are now building some more amazing webs. I have huge leaves suspended 10 feet above the ground, yet 50 feet from the nearest tree. The sun caught this one just right this afternoon, and I could see the bullseye 15 feet up, and 20 feet across. More bird catchers, with leaves as bait. I'm hoping the leaf suspension height correlates to the dept of snow this winter, lol. Anything to counterbalance this awful Sept heat!!
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
You know what..... I actually feel a little optimistic going into this winter. I am thinking that we have a normal winter for a change. Yes there will be some warmth, but I believe when all is said and done we will be closer to average. That would be a nice treat compared to last winter. It will all be up to the SER. Reminder SE ridges are harder to get established in a Nino winter. They are more favored in Nina years.
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So are -PNA's during Nina. Funny even though the ENSO ocean temperature anomalies are generally below average right now, we are seeing Nino affects. Last year we saw Nina affects. Of course other than the strong subtropical jet, but with the warmer than the average ocean that's not surprising.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like some shades of last winter, ugly ridging south of AK, -PNA, +NAO, SER showing its ugly face, that’s a ugly winter pattern, even one that would support winter severe threats
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Seattle looking good, again! ??
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like some shades of last winter, ugly ridging south of AK, -PNA, +NAO, SER showing its ugly face, that’s a ugly winter pattern, even one that would support winter severe threats
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Take it to the bank. That will be 100% correct. If it was showing cold in wouldn't have a chance in hell. But warm verifies 99.9% of the time. Also looks just like last winter so atmospheric memory?
 
Nina signals are showing up. They’re either hit or miss
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pcbjr said:
3 months out and stock is put into this? I have a bridge to sell ...
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I only posted for informational purposes. Take it for what it’s worth. But as others have indicated, the trend is usually your friend.
 
Poimen said:
I only posted for informational purposes. Take it for what it’s worth. But as others have indicated, the trend is usually your friend.
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There was nothing malicious or otherwise negative intended in my post ... just an observation about the temporal accuracy of any model ... if it came across otherwise, my bad ... ;)
 
NWMSGuy said:
Does a +PDO help or hurt the southeast US with regards to winter weather chances?
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It helps because It boosts the chance of a +PNA which boosts a ridge in the west which promotes a trough in the east. That is a very favorable pattern for SE snow. Though we can’t guarantee the +PDO with persist through the winter months, however It did occur during the winters of 2014, 2015 which were pleasant across the East coast. 2014 is a winter many want a repeat of in the SE.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Does a +PDO help or hurt the southeast US with regards to winter weather chances?
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Normally you kind of want some cooler water nosing in allowing that horseshoe shape, but still a +PDO is somewhat similar to the ENSO, but just last longer, and it can actually offset the ENSO if they are in different phases, but a +PDO normally means cooler anomalies in the SE and a more active STJ, if We can just get some Greenland blocking, then we may get a winter storm setup somewhat easily this year but a -NAO is hard to buy in winter 8474E81B-7495-450F-A0B4-4B29C3209DD7.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Normally you kind of want some cooler water nosing in allowing that horseshoe shape, but still a +PDO is somewhat similar to the ENSO, but just last longer, and it can actually offset the ENSO if they are in different phases, but a +PDO normally means cooler anomalies in the SE and a more active STJ, if We can just get some Greenland blocking, then we may get a winter storm setup somewhat easily this year but a -NAO is hard to buy in winter View attachment 23592
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Not being selfish here ... just wishful ... for enough real cold to kill the invasive Cuban tree frogs back to the Everglades ... anything else IMBY would be a bonus from Heaven ...
 
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