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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Here is the initial Maxar winter forecast that was released earlier. Unlike most forecasters shown here, these folks aren’t the least bit cold biased. Accuracy/their record is far more important to them than getting readers overly excited about prospects for a cold winter or predicting high energy usage for energy clients.

That being said, they are predicting the coldest SE winter by a good margin of the last 4 with near the 30 year normal. At ATL, they are predicting +0.5 F for DJF, which is much colder than last winter’s +4 with +0.5 in Dec, +0.1 in Jan, and +1.0 in Feb. So, all near normal months. The last 4 winters have each had 1 or 2 mild months (mainly due to very strong SER) with the other months fairly close to normal. This winter, Maxar is saying that the SER will still be there in the mean but weaker than last winter largely because the warmest equatorial Pacific waters are a little further east (dateline instead of Indonesia) although they also say there still is a notable risk of it being strong again:

**Edit: Maxar also had near normal for the SE US last winter with ~+0.5 at ATL and so they busted way too cold in the SE.
 

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Would like to see Judah’s blog today and the snow builds from around the northern hemisphere. Interesting to see if it plateaus or continues to build.


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Snowless & Grumpy said:
Can't wait until CJ is hyping a foot of snow and -- is saying rain only. Hmm wonder who'll be right?
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I’m interested to see if CJ let’s his inner weenie out, when Cessarich is finally out of the picture!??
 
NWMSGuy said:
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Here is my opinion guys. People are just guessing for winter this early lol. Its wayyy too early to know anything, but maybe in another month it could be a different story. I just hope the good forecasters that know alot about patterns will actually do a winter forecast instead of the mombo jumbo of us guessing what they mean and put it in more layman's terms.
 
I don’t think I’ve ever seen SSW thrown around in October!? This winter is going to be epic!
mom just praying for Nino to happen and bring me lots of rain!
 
No Webb here by a very long shot, but ... in the SE it's really too early to know until it's actually falling ... so many factors that play into it all ...
 
Golf7575 said:
Webber, do you agree with him or is it still early to know or even have a good idea? I think more factors should be considered.
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If you haven't learned to go ahead and auto-punt until March by now, there ain't much hope for ya! ?
 
I always go into winter expecting one event of at least 2". While that's not as much snow as I'd like to have, I always have that expectation, and I'm usually not disappointed (in that it snows at lest once).
 
Rain Cold said:
If you haven't learned to go ahead and auto-punt until March by now, there ain't much hope for ya! ?
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Rain, if you read my post from last night, i know everyone is entitled to their opinion, but its way early to even speculate on this winter in October. Just saying! The real good ones out there won't even start to guess until November.
 
Golf7575 said:
Rain, if you read my post from last night, i know everyone is entitled to their opinion, but its way early to even speculate on this winter in October. Just saying! The real good ones out there won't even start to guess until November.
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I know man. I'm just messing with you. That being said, my kicker is warming up!
 
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